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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 21 Oct

Slovakia, the EU, Germany, Finland and Italy look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
GlobalHomepageEurozoneGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - EurozoneMarketsStoryRegion
MNI (LONDON)
  • Slovakia, the EU, Germany, Finland and Italy look to hold auctions in the upcoming week while Italy also looks to hold an exchange.
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E24.7bln, up from E23.2bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees redemptions totalling E29.3bln: most significantly E12.6bln from a formerly 7-year Belgian OLO, E11.7bln from a formerly 10-year Austrian RAGB and E4.7bln from a BTP Italia.
  • Coupon payments for the week total E9.3bln, of which E6.6bln are French, E0.9bln are Austrian, E0.7bln are German, E0.7bln are Belgian and E0.2bln are Portuguese
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E17.0bln versus negative E21.5bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here: EZ241021.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • On Monday, Slovakia will kick off issuance for the week with a 3/10/11/12-year SlovGBs auction. On offer will be the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB, the on-the-run 10-year 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB, the 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB and the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB.
  • Italy will hold an exchange auction via Banca d’Italia on Monday with up to E3bln of the 5.00% Aug-34 BTP (ISIN: IT0003535157) and the 4.00% Feb-37 BTP (ISIN: IT0003934657) on offer. The MEF will look to buy back the 0.35% Feb-25 BTP (ISIN: IT0005386245), the 5.00% Mar-25 BTP (ISIN: IT0004513641), the 1.50% Jun-25 BTP (ISIN: IT0005090318), the 1.40% May-25 BTP Italia (ISIN: IT0005410912) and the 0.55% May-26 BTP Italia (ISIN: IT0005332835).
  • The EU, also on Monday, will hold an EU-bond auction selling up to E3bln of the 3.125% Dec-30 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3LNF05) and up to E2bln of the 2.50% Oct-52 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DT4).
  • Finally, on Monday, Belgium will hold a conventional auction with E2.2-2.5bln of on-the-run 5/10-year OLOs on offer alongside an off-the-run 33-year OLO: the 2.70% Oct-29 OLO (ISIN: BE0000362716), the 2.85% Oct-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000360694), and the 2.25% Jun-57 OLO (ISIN: BE0000343526).
  • Germany, on Tuesday, will sell E5bln of the new Dec-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22072). The coupon will be announced the preceding day.
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday, to issue E4bln of the 2.60% Aug-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z031).
  • Finland, on Thursday will look to hold an ORI operation to sell up to E400mln.
  • Finally, Italy will end the week by holding a BTP Short Term and BTPei auction. Details will be announced Tuesday. We expect the 3.10% Aug-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005607269) to be on offer but don’t have a strong view regarding the BTPei on offer.
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MNI (LONDON)
  • Slovakia, the EU, Germany, Finland and Italy look to hold auctions in the upcoming week while Italy also looks to hold an exchange.
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E24.7bln, up from E23.2bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees redemptions totalling E29.3bln: most significantly E12.6bln from a formerly 7-year Belgian OLO, E11.7bln from a formerly 10-year Austrian RAGB and E4.7bln from a BTP Italia.
  • Coupon payments for the week total E9.3bln, of which E6.6bln are French, E0.9bln are Austrian, E0.7bln are German, E0.7bln are Belgian and E0.2bln are Portuguese
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E17.0bln versus negative E21.5bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here: EZ241021.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • On Monday, Slovakia will kick off issuance for the week with a 3/10/11/12-year SlovGBs auction. On offer will be the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB, the on-the-run 10-year 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB, the 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB and the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB.
  • Italy will hold an exchange auction via Banca d’Italia on Monday with up to E3bln of the 5.00% Aug-34 BTP (ISIN: IT0003535157) and the 4.00% Feb-37 BTP (ISIN: IT0003934657) on offer. The MEF will look to buy back the 0.35% Feb-25 BTP (ISIN: IT0005386245), the 5.00% Mar-25 BTP (ISIN: IT0004513641), the 1.50% Jun-25 BTP (ISIN: IT0005090318), the 1.40% May-25 BTP Italia (ISIN: IT0005410912) and the 0.55% May-26 BTP Italia (ISIN: IT0005332835).
  • The EU, also on Monday, will hold an EU-bond auction selling up to E3bln of the 3.125% Dec-30 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3LNF05) and up to E2bln of the 2.50% Oct-52 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DT4).
  • Finally, on Monday, Belgium will hold a conventional auction with E2.2-2.5bln of on-the-run 5/10-year OLOs on offer alongside an off-the-run 33-year OLO: the 2.70% Oct-29 OLO (ISIN: BE0000362716), the 2.85% Oct-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000360694), and the 2.25% Jun-57 OLO (ISIN: BE0000343526).
  • Germany, on Tuesday, will sell E5bln of the new Dec-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22072). The coupon will be announced the preceding day.
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday, to issue E4bln of the 2.60% Aug-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z031).
  • Finland, on Thursday will look to hold an ORI operation to sell up to E400mln.
  • Finally, Italy will end the week by holding a BTP Short Term and BTPei auction. Details will be announced Tuesday. We expect the 3.10% Aug-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005607269) to be on offer but don’t have a strong view regarding the BTPei on offer.