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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 27 May, 2024

The EU, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Finland all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week. On the syndication side, we see Spain as the most likely candidate to hold a syndication in our view.

  • The EU, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Finland all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
  • On the syndication side, we see Spain as the most likely candidate to hold a syndication in our view.
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E37.8bln, up from E26.7bln this week.
  • The week ahead sees redemptions of E69.8bln: E36.3bln of a formerly 10-year OAT, E14.1bln of a BTP Short Term and E19.5bln of a Spanish formerly 3-year Bono.
  • Coupon payments for the week are E13.8bln: E12.3bln French, E0.8bln Spanish and E0.5bln Italian.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E45.9bln, versus positive E23.0bln this week.

Supply Next Week

  • The EU will look to kick off issuance for the week on Monday. On offer will be up to E2.5bln of the on-the-run long 3-year 2.875% Dec-27 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4EW6) which was launched last month via syndication alongside up to E2.5bln of the short 20-year 1.25% Feb-43 Green EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DG1).
  • Belgium will also look to hold a conventional auction on Monday with E2.0-2.5bln combined of on-the-run 10/30-year OLOs on offer: the 2.85% Oct-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000360694) and the 3.50% Jun-55 OLO (ISIN: BE0000361700).
  • On Tuesday, the Netherlands will look to sell E1.5-2.0bln of the short 15-year 0% Jan-38 DSL (ISIN: NL0015000B11).
  • Also on Tuesday, Italy will look to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. On offer will be E1.5-1.75bln of the 0% Dec-24 BTP (ISIN: IT0005474330), E2.25-2.75bln of the on-the-run 3.20% Jan-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005584302) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994).
  • Rounding off Tuesday’s issuance, Germany will look to hold a Green auction. On offer will be E1bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU35025) and E1bln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005).
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E500mln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) alongside E1.5bln of the 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009).
  • Italy will return to the market on Thursday with a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction. We expect reopenings of the on-the-run 5-year 3.35% Jul-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584849) alongside the on-the-run 10-year 3.85% Jul-34 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584856) but don’t have a strong conviction for the CCTeu. Details will be confirmed on Monday.
  • Finland will conclude issuance for the month, also on Thursday, with up to E400mln available through its ORI Facility.
  • Belgium opened its books for its latest retail -only State Bond (Bons d’État) subscription on Friday 24 May. Books will remain open until Monday 3 June inclusive. On offer will be a 1-year 3.20% Jun-25 issue (ISIN: BE3871296260) and an 8-year 2.80% Jun-32 issue (ISIN: BE3871297276).
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  • The EU, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Finland all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
  • On the syndication side, we see Spain as the most likely candidate to hold a syndication in our view.
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E37.8bln, up from E26.7bln this week.
  • The week ahead sees redemptions of E69.8bln: E36.3bln of a formerly 10-year OAT, E14.1bln of a BTP Short Term and E19.5bln of a Spanish formerly 3-year Bono.
  • Coupon payments for the week are E13.8bln: E12.3bln French, E0.8bln Spanish and E0.5bln Italian.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E45.9bln, versus positive E23.0bln this week.

Supply Next Week

  • The EU will look to kick off issuance for the week on Monday. On offer will be up to E2.5bln of the on-the-run long 3-year 2.875% Dec-27 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4EW6) which was launched last month via syndication alongside up to E2.5bln of the short 20-year 1.25% Feb-43 Green EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DG1).
  • Belgium will also look to hold a conventional auction on Monday with E2.0-2.5bln combined of on-the-run 10/30-year OLOs on offer: the 2.85% Oct-34 OLO (ISIN: BE0000360694) and the 3.50% Jun-55 OLO (ISIN: BE0000361700).
  • On Tuesday, the Netherlands will look to sell E1.5-2.0bln of the short 15-year 0% Jan-38 DSL (ISIN: NL0015000B11).
  • Also on Tuesday, Italy will look to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. On offer will be E1.5-1.75bln of the 0% Dec-24 BTP (ISIN: IT0005474330), E2.25-2.75bln of the on-the-run 3.20% Jan-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005584302) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994).
  • Rounding off Tuesday’s issuance, Germany will look to hold a Green auction. On offer will be E1bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU35025) and E1bln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005).
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E500mln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) alongside E1.5bln of the 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009).
  • Italy will return to the market on Thursday with a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction. We expect reopenings of the on-the-run 5-year 3.35% Jul-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584849) alongside the on-the-run 10-year 3.85% Jul-34 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584856) but don’t have a strong conviction for the CCTeu. Details will be confirmed on Monday.
  • Finland will conclude issuance for the month, also on Thursday, with up to E400mln available through its ORI Facility.
  • Belgium opened its books for its latest retail -only State Bond (Bons d’État) subscription on Friday 24 May. Books will remain open until Monday 3 June inclusive. On offer will be a 1-year 3.20% Jun-25 issue (ISIN: BE3871296260) and an 8-year 2.80% Jun-32 issue (ISIN: BE3871297276).
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