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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Jul 12

We upcoming week will see heavy issuance. We estimate E38.6bln nominal will be sold via auction with the third NGEU syndication also due to be held. Issuance will comfortably exceed this week's E16.3bln.

  • The third NGEU syndication (final before the summer break) will take place probably on Tuesday next week with a mandate likely release Monday (an RFP for the week has already been issued). Our base case would be for a 15/20-year issue in a single tranche transaction (matching the pattern of issuance for SURE with a dual/dual/single sequence for the first three transactions). However, we also would not be surprised by a dual-tranche transaction, possibly of 3/7-year bonds alongside a 15/20-year issue. We pencil in a range from E8-15bln for the transaction.
  • Auctions for the week will kick off on Tuesday with the Netherlands looking to sell E1.5-2.5bln of the 3.75% Jan-42 DSL.
  • Tuesday will also see Italy launch a new 3-year BTP as it looks to sell up to E9.0bln of 3/7/15-year BTPs: E4.0-4.5bln of the new 0% Aug-24 BTP, E2.25-2.75bln of the 0.50% Jul-28 BTP and E1.25-1.75bln of the 0.95% Mar-37 BTP.
  • Concluding Tuesday's auctions, Germany will look to sell E5bln of the 0% Jun-23 Schatz.
  • Germany will return to the market Wednesday to sell E4bln of the 10-year 0% Aug-31 Bund.
  • Also Wednesday, Portugal will hold an auction for E0.75-1.00bln of OTs with the 0.475% Oct-30 OT and 4.10% Apr-37 OT on offer.
  • On Thursday, Spain will sell 3/7/10-year on-the-run issues and an 15-year off-the-run issue with amounts to be announced Monday. On offer will be the 0.25% Jul-24 Bono, the 0% Jan-28 Bono, the 0.50% Oct-31 Obli and the 4.20% Jan-37 Obli.
  • France then looks to sell E9.5-10.5bln of MT OATs with the following on offer: the 0% Feb-24 OAT, the 0% Feb-26 OAT, the 2.75% Oct-27 OAT and the 0.75% Nov-28 OAT.
  • France will conclude issuance for the week with E1.25-1.75bln of 10/15-year OATeis on offer: the 0.10% Jul-31 OATei and the 0.10% Jul-36 OATei.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: There is just one redemption next week, E16.5bln of a Netherlands DSL which was originally issued with a 10-year maturity. In addition, there are E3.1bln of coupon payments (of which around 60% are Dutch). This leaves net nominal flows for the week at E29.0bln, versus this week's minus E15.1bln.

For a recap of last week's issuance alongside graphical representations of issuance in the upcoming weeks and detailed tables of coupon and redemption schedules for the year ahead see the full document:


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