MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Sep 13

Executive Summary:

• The Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Spain and France have auctions scheduled next week while the EU has an NGEU syndication scheduled. We look for E36.0bln of gross nominal issuance, up from E12.4bln this week.
• Redemptions this week total E35.4bln (RAGB and BTPei) while coupon payments total E3.7bln (of which E2.9bln are Italian). With estimated gross nominal issuance of E36.0bln, we look for net nominal issuance of negative E3.1bln for the week (sharply up from the negative E38.9bln seen from the E50bln of German redemptions this week).
• For a recap of last week's issuance alongside graphical representations of issuance in the upcoming weeks and detailed tables of coupon and redemption schedules for the year ahead see the full document.

Full document:

EZ130921.pdf

Week Ahead Supply:

• The Netherlands will kick off issuance for the week on Tuesday morning with E1-2bln of the 30-year 0% Jan-52 DSL on offer.
• Italy will then look to sell up to E5.75bln of on-the-run 3/7/30-year BTPs: E1.5-2.0bln of the 0% Aug-24 BTP, E1.5-2.0bln of the 0.50% Jul-28 BTP and E1.25-1.75bln of the 1.70% Sep-51 BTP.
• Also Tuesday, Germany will come to the market to sell E5bln of the 0% Sep-23 Schatz.
• We expect the EU's NGEU syndication to take place on Tuesday. We had previously noted that we thought there is appetite for a dual-tranche syndication in September and would expect either the 3/7-year to be launched alongside the 15/25-year. However, since the EU confirmed that it can launch new issues via auction (as well as via syndication) and that it can auction more than one bond at a single auction, we think it is less likely we will see the 3-year launched via syndication. We now favour either a dual-tranche 7-year alongside a 15/25-year issue or one of these maturities via a single tranche transaction.
• On Thursday, Spain will sell the on-the-run 3/5-year Bonos and the on-the-run 10-year Obli at next week's auction: the 0% May-24 Bono, the 0% Jan-26 Bono and the 0.50% Oct-31 Obli.
• France will then look to sell E8-9bln of MT OATs. On offer will be the 2.25% May-24 OAT, the 0.25% Nov-26 OAT and the 0% Feb-27 OAT.
• Issuance for the week will conclude Thursday when France returns to the market to sell E1.5-2.0bln of 5/10/20-year OATeis. On offer will be the 0.10% Mar-26 OATei, the 0.10% Jul-31 OATei and the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei.