MNI estimates the NHS bonus accounted for around 0.5ppt in the wage data

Looking at the UK wage data:

• Private sector regular wages rose from 7.9% to 8.2% while total inc bonus rose from 7.4%3m/YoY to 7.9%3m/YoY.
• It was the public sector that showed the biggest surprise due to the NHS bonus - regular increased from 5.9%3m/YoY to 6.2%3m/YoY but inc bonus from 6.0%3m/YoY to 9.6%3m/YoY. Note that the public sector accounts for 19% of the whole economy employment.
• The ONS notes that: "NHS workers were to be given a pay award for 2023 to 2024 and two one-off non-consolidated bonus pay awards. The latter will account for a large bonus being present in total pay in June 2023 for the health and social industry and the public sector; both show a spike in bonus payments, which has never been seen before. The 2023 to 2024 pay award arrears are also collected but our headline estimates exclude arrears payments."
• On a very, very approximate basis, MNI estimates that the NHS bonus accounted for around a 0.5ppt contribution into the 8.2%3m/YoY print - so without it we would have been looking at a print of around 7.7%3m/YoY - still 3 tenths higher than consensus expectations - and close to the 4 tenths above expectations seen for the ex-bonus print.