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MNI Europe Pi(Positioning Indicator): BTPs Stay Long Post-Roll

MNI Europe Pi(Positioning Indicator): BTPs Stay Long Post-Roll

MNI Europe Pi(Positioning Indicator): BTPs Stay Long Post-Roll

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • European bond futures structural positioning has shifted slightly following the March/June Eurex roll which concluded on March 7.
  • While most contracts remain in "flat" territory, BTPs and Gilts are notably "long".
  • The most recent week's trade has been mixed, with four contracts seeing long setting/short cover, and three seeing short setting/long reduction.

Full PDF Analysis:

MNIPi22Mar2024.pdf

  • GERMANY: Schatz has shifted from structurally long since our Feb 29 update to sit flat, while Buxl has moved from short to flat. Bobl positioning remains flat, while Bund remains short. Schatz and Bund have seen trade indicative of long-setting in the past week, with short cover in Bobl and short-setting in Buxl.
  • OAT: OAT remains in flat structural positioning, the same for the past 2 quarters. Trade last week was indicative of short-setting.
  • GILT: Following the late February roll period, prior to which Gilts were in structurally flat territory, positioning has moved to long. Trade over the past week was indicative of long-setting.
  • BTP: BTP structural positioning has moved to long from "very long" previously. The past week's trade was indicative of longs being reduced.





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