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MNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: LNY Sees Steady Start To Trading Week, Central Bank Speak Coming Up

  • It has been a relatively muted start to trading for the week in Asia Pac markets. Much of the region is out for LNY holidays, while Japan has also been out today.
  • NZD/USD has given back some of Friday's outperformance but remains within recent ranges. Some comments by RBNZ Governor Orr may have weighed at the margin, although NZGBs closed 2-4bps cheaper across benchmarks (albeit off the local session’s worst levels). US Tsy futures have drifted higher on light volumes, but there has been no cash trading with Japan markets out.
  • Elsewhere, our recession probability estimate signals that there is still a risk of recession in the euro area in H1 2024 with growth positive again in the second half, see below for more details.
  • Looking ahead, the Fed’s Bowman, Barkin and Kashkari make appearances, BoE’s Bailey and the ECB’s Lane, Cipollone and Buch speak. In terms of data there are January NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations and US budget statement. US CPI on Tuesday will be watched closely.

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  • It has been a relatively muted start to trading for the week in Asia Pac markets. Much of the region is out for LNY holidays, while Japan has also been out today.
  • NZD/USD has given back some of Friday's outperformance but remains within recent ranges. Some comments by RBNZ Governor Orr may have weighed at the margin, although NZGBs closed 2-4bps cheaper across benchmarks (albeit off the local session’s worst levels). US Tsy futures have drifted higher on light volumes, but there has been no cash trading with Japan markets out.
  • Elsewhere, our recession probability estimate signals that there is still a risk of recession in the euro area in H1 2024 with growth positive again in the second half, see below for more details.
  • Looking ahead, the Fed’s Bowman, Barkin and Kashkari make appearances, BoE’s Bailey and the ECB’s Lane, Cipollone and Buch speak. In terms of data there are January NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations and US budget statement. US CPI on Tuesday will be watched closely.

MARKETS

Keep reading...Show less