- Strong equity gains, led by tech sensitive markets, has aided broader risk appetite. FX markets have seen JPY and CHF dip modestly, while higher beta FX has outperformed.
- We had further hawkish BoJ rhetoric but its impact on JPY and JGB futures was limited. US Tsys futures edged slightly lower in the first half of the session, with the front-end slightly underperforming, mirroring moves made post US CPI overnight.
- In NZ, Q3 average annual rates are generally lower, apart from food and overseas air travel, which signals that inflation is on track to moderate towards the RBNZ’s 2.3% y/y forecast.
- Later US August PPI, budget and jobless claims print. Core PPI is expected to hold steady at 2.4% y/y. The ECB announces its decision today, which will be accompanied by updated staff forecasts and a press conference. It is expected to cut rates 25bp.
MARKETS
US TSYS: Tsys Futures Slightly Lower Ahead Of US PPI Later
- Tsys futures edged slightly lower in the first half of the session, before trading in very tight ranges as we head into the European session. front-end is slightly underperforming, mirroring moves made post US CPI overnight. Focus will now turn to ECB where they are expected to lower rates by 25bps, then onto US PPI which should give a clearer pictures on whether a 25bps or 50bps cut is on the cards for next week.
- TUZ4 is -0-01 at 104-09⅛ while TYZ4 is trading -0-01+ at 115-09.
- Tsys flows: TU/UXY Block Flattener DV01 350k, UXY Block Likely Buyer DV01 450k
- Cash tsys curve continues the bear-flattening moves from overnight, with the 2yr +1.2bps at 3.654%, while the 10yr is +0.9bps at 3.668%.
- Projected rate cuts through year end remain soft vs. pre-data levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -28.5bp (-32.7bp), Nov'24 cumulative -65.1bp (-72.5bp), Dec'24 -105.3bp (-114.5bp).
- It has been a reasonably quiet session in Asia today, with focus on BOJ's Tamura indicated that the CB needs to raise its benchmark rate more aggressively than many economists have been expecting, noting that the neutral policy rate in Japan is 1% or higher, we briefly saw the yen strengthen, while yields rose slightly, however we now trade little changed.
- Following decent demand in the 10yr auction overnight, there is a $22b 30yr bond auction later today
- Looking ahead we have US PPI and Jobless Claims a bit later.
STIR: $-Bloc Market Swings Are Slightly Mixed Over Past Week
STIR markets in the $-bloc showed mixed performances over the past week, with little change in year-end official rate expectations for Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
- The US stood out as the exception, with year-end rate expectations rising by 7bps. This followed a higher-than-expected US Core CPI reading for August, which rose 0.281% due to a rebound in housing inflation, exceeding the 0.2% forecast. The annual rates for Headline and Core CPI were 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively.
- While the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut by the FOMC next week has diminished, markets still await Thursday's PPI and weekly jobless claims data.
- The December 2024 expectations and the cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: 4.34%, -99bps (FOMC); 3.64%, -61bps (BoC); 4.16%, -18bps (RBA); and 4.47%, -78bps (RBNZ).
Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
JGBS: Cash Bonds Cheaper But Off Worst Levels
JGB futures are weaker but off session lows, -18 compared to the settlement levels.
- Outside of the previously outlined PPI, BSI Sentiment & Investment Flows, the market has had comments from BoJ Tamura to digest. His remarks came across as more hawkish than those made by Nakagawa yesterday.
- (MNI, ICYMI) BoJ's Tamura emphasised the need to raise short-term interest rates to around 1% by the latter half of the long-term forecast period through fiscal 2026 to achieve the 2% inflation target. He views the neutral rate at 1% and suggests adjusting rates based on the certainty of reaching the price goal.
- Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s post-CPI sell-off. The focus now turns to today's US PPI and Weekly Claims data.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 2bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the 1-year leading. The benchmark 20-year yield is 0.8bp higher at 1.680% after today’s supply.
- 20-year supply showed mixed demand metrics, with the low price failing to meet dealer expectations and the auction tail lengthening. However, the cover ratio was steady at 3.4749x versus 3.4223x previously.
- Swap rates are 1-5bps higher, with the curve steeper.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation data.
JAPAN DATA: PPI Headline Slows, Business Sentiment Rebounds For Q3
Japan August PPI was down 0.2% m/m, against a flat consensus expectation. This left the y/y outcome at 2.5% against a 2.8% forecast and 3.0% prior.
- The chart below overlays this PPI outcome against headline Japan CPI y/y. The directional correlation between the two series has remained reasonable, with PPI often leading shifts in the CPI. The August downtick suggests some downside in CPI may materialize, although we are still coming off elevated levels from a headline CPI standpoint (particularly relative to the BoJ's longer term 2% target). Hence today's result may not shift BOJ thinking a great deal.
- In terms of the detail the manufacturing PPI fell -0.2%m/m, while softness elsewhere was evident in terms of commodities.
- Other data showed the all industry and large manufacturing sentiment improved in Q3, relative to Q2 outcomes. Large firms, all industry rose to 5.1 from 0.4, while manufacturing was 4.5 from -1.0 in Q2. The outlook if further improvement in Q4 before some softening in Q1 next year.
Fig 1: Japan PPI Versus CPI - Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
JAPAN DATA: Local Investors Cool Offshore Debt Purchases
Local investors slowed their purchases off overseas debt, with net selling of -¥222.6bn bonds last week. This was the first week of net selling in this segment since the tail end July. Up until the end of August we had seen just under ¥7.3trln in domestic purchases of overseas debt. Momentum still appears positive into this space given the global fixed income backdrop and some decline in hedging costs. Local investors purchased offshore equities for the fourth straight week (¥496.5bn).
- In terms of flows into Japan bonds/equities, offshore investors remains net sellers of local equities. This was the fourth consecutive weekly outflow and the largest single weekly outflow since mid March. As we noted last week, this remains consistent with other tech sensitive countries.
- Offshore investors did purchase local bonds last week, but this only partially reversed the prior week's outflow.
Table 1: Japan Weekly Investment Flows
| Billion Yen | Week ending August 30 | Prior Week |
| Foreign Buying Japan Stocks | -902.3 | -824.4 |
| Foreign Buying Japan Bonds | 452.7 | -1398.5 |
| Japan Buying Foreign Bonds | -222.6 | 1640.5 |
| Japan Buying Foreign Stocks | 496.5 | 384.7 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper But Mid-Range Ahead Of US PPI & Claims Data
In roll-impacted dealings, ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -2.1) are weaker but off the Sydney session’s worst levels.
- Outside of the MI Inflation Expectations data, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- (MNI) MI Inflation Expectations measure eased 0.1pp in September to 4.4% y/y, in line with the series average. The measure can lead headline CPI inflation and in 2019 it averaged around 3.6%. A move below 4% in the series would be welcomed to help determine if inflation has been contained.
- Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s post-CPI sell-off. The focus now turns to today's US PPI and Weekly Claims data.
- Cash ACGBs are 2-4bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +21bps versus yesterday’s +24bps.
- Swap rates are flat to 2bps higher, with the 3s10s curve flatter and EFPs tighter.
- The bills strip is cheaper, with pricing -1 to -3 across contracts.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps firmer, with late 2025 leading. A cumulative 16bps of easing is priced by year-end.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar is empty.
NZGBS: Closed Little Changed After Q3 Prices Data
NZGBs closed little changed and in the middle of today’s ranges.
- (Bloomberg) “New Zealand’s central bank will cut interest rates further and faster than it says it will as the economy contracts and inflation slows, according to investors and some economists.” (See link)
- (MNI) As NZ does not yet have a monthly aggregate CPI series, the release of certain components accounting for around 45% of the total is watched closely. Q3 average annual rates are generally lower, apart from food and overseas air travel, which signals that inflation is on track to moderate towards the RBNZ’s 2.3% y/y forecast.
- August food prices rose 0.2% m/m and 0.4% y/y, down from 0.6% y/y. It continues to be held down by fruit & vegetable prices which fell 0.8% m/m and -12.2% y/y. But groceries and restaurant meals saw price rises and are running at 2.4% y/y and 3.6% y/y respectively.
- Swap rates are flat to 1bp higher.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 2-4bps firmer across meetings, with May-25 leading. A cumulative 78bps of easing is priced by year-end.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see REINZ House Sales and BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI data.
NEW ZEALAND: Q3 Average Inflation Rates Signalling Return To Target
As NZ does not yet have a monthly aggregate CPI series, the release of certain components accounting for around 45% of the total is watched closely. Q3 average annual rates are generally lower, apart from food and overseas air travel, which signals that inflation is on track to moderate towards the RBNZ’s 2.3% y/y forecast.
- August food prices rose 0.2% m/m and 0.4% y/y, down from 0.6% y/y. It continues to be held down by fruit & vegetable prices which fell 0.8% m/m and -12.2% y/y. But groceries and restaurant meals saw price rises and are running at 2.4% y/y and 3.6% y/y respectively.
- Transport prices were lower with petrol, diesel and air fares all lower on the month. Petrol is down 8.1% y/y after -0.6%, while domestic air travel is -8.5% y/y and international -7.2% y/y. The Auckland fuel levy was removed in July.
- Increases for existing rentals were steady at 4.3% y/y, but for new rentals they fell for the fourth straight month and are now up only 1.4% y/y down from 7.2% y/y in September 2023.
- Accommodation services rose sharply on the month driven by overseas. The series is volatile though and has averaged -0.5% y/y in Q3 down from +3% in Q2.
- Alcohol and tobacco was unchanged on the month to be up 6.2% y/y down from 6.5% in July.
NZ monthly prices y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/Statistics NZ
NEW ZEALAND: Q3 Consumer Spending Soft, More RBNZ Cuts Likely Before Year End
August retail card spending rose 0.2% m/m, the first monthly rise since January, while the total fell 0.2% m/m. Retail sales look like they continued to deteriorate in Q3. This data is included in the list of high frequency indicators the RBNZ is monitoring and is consistent with 25bp rate cuts at the October and November meetings, as consumers remain under pressure and cautious.
- Tax cuts came into effect on July 31 and may have helped boost retail spending in August but it is likely too soon to ascertain if they are being spent or saved.
- Retail spending is down 4.3% y/y after -3.9%, while 3-month momentum is still negative, it is improving. The monthly rise was driven by apparel and durables. Core retail rose 0.4% m/m.
- Total card transactions were down 1.8% y/y in August after -0.8% with negative momentum also gradually progressing. Services spending increased 0.2% m/m and non-retail ex services fell 0.4%.
New Zealand retail sales y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
FOREX: Safe Havens Underperform Amid Equity Gains/Higher US Yields
There has been a modest risk on tone in G10 FX in the first part of Thursday trade. Both yen and CHF are down marginally against the USD, while AUD and NZD have ticked higher. The better equity tone, led by the tech sector, has been a standout so far today. The BBDXY USD index is little changed, last near 1235.50.
- USD/JPY has had a range of 142.23-142.95 so far today. We pushed higher in early trade amid a tick up in US yields, led by the front end. Also weighing at the margins was a slightly weaker than expected August PPI print. However, hawkish rhetoric from BoJ board member Tamura that the central bank needs to raise rates to at least a neutral rate of 1% spurred a USD/JPY turn around.
- This afternoon, with US yields holding positive, led by the front end, coupled with higher US equity futures and strong regional equity gains has supported FX risk appetite USD/JPY was last near 142.80, off 0.30% for the session. CHF has slipped around 0.10%.
- AUD and NZD are both up around 0.20% versus the USD. AUD/USD ticking up to 0.6690, with consumer inflation expectations data proving sticky. AUD/JPY is up, back near 95.50. Recent lows were at 93.59.
- NZD/USD has firmed back to 0.6150. Earlier data suggested Q3 average inflation rates are signalling a return to the RBNZ's target. This may have aided higher AUD/NZD levels at the margin (hitting highs of 1.0893), but we sit slightly lower in latest dealings.
- Helping the A$ at the margins is a further pick in metal prices, with iron ore back near $94/ton, while copper is also up.
- Later US August PPI, budget and jobless claims print. Core PPI is expected to hold steady at 2.4% y/y. The ECB announces its decision today, which will be accompanied by updated staff forecasts and a press conference. It is expected to cut rates 25bp.
ASIA PAC STOCKS: Tech Stocks Lead Asian Market Higher, Following Nvidia's Comments
Asian markets are trading higher today, driven by a tech-fueled rally originating from Wall Street. Semiconductor and related equities saw notable gains after Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, highlighted surging demand for its products. Japanese stocks advanced sharply, with the Nikkei 225 rising more than 3% as a pause in the yen's strengthening benefited exporters like Hitachi and Toyota Motor. South Korea's Kospi also climbed 1.2%, led by gains in tech stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. The recent U.S. inflation data has dampened hopes for a large 50 basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, but markets still anticipate a more modest 25bp cut, which is supporting broader market sentiment.
- US equity futures are testing the overnight highs. NQU4 Eminis +0.15% while S&P 500 Eminis +0.05%.
- Asian tech stocks lead the way higher today, with Samsung +0.90%, Sk Hynix +6%, TSMC +4.80%, Tokyo Electron + 3.80%
- Hong Kong Equities are outperforming China Mainland stocks today with the HSI +0.90%, while CSI 300 is flat and hovers right on the yearly lows made in February, see chart.
- South Korea continues to see selling from of tech stocks from foreign investors with a $120m outflow so far today, there has however been better buying seen in auto names.
- Taiwan's Taiex is the top performing market in the region today, with TSMC +4.80% & Hon Hai +4.20% contributing to majority of the gains.
ASIA STOCKS: HK Equities Outperform, China Equities Struggle On IB Crackdown
Chinese & Hong Kong equities are mixed today with the CSI 300 Index giving up early gains and now testing yearly lows, as reports surfaced that investment bankers are being detained or required to surrender their passports, quickly dampening market sentiment and despite efforts by Chinese authorities to implement stimulus measures, slow execution has hindered progress, especially in addressing property sector challenges with many property indices trading at all time lows, and property bonds struggling to find a bid. While investors expect possible government support from the National Team if equities hit a 5-year low although it may only temporarily delay a further decline.
- Major benchmarks are mixed with the HSI up 1%, property indices have found some support today and trade unchanged, Tech stocks are higher on the back of the prospect of OpenAI's potential $150 billion valuation with the HSTech Index is 1.40% higher, though investors may remain cautious after the Ant Financial IPO collapse. Banking stocks track US peers higher following last night CPI, with the HS Mainland Banking Index +1.10%.
- China is intensifying its crackdown on investment bankers, with at least three top bankers detained since August, and several brokerages requiring employees to hand in passports and seek approval for travel. The crackdown is raising concerns about the future of China's $1.7t brokerage industry, as IPO activities and revenue have sharply declined amidst economic struggles.
- Looking ahead we have Hong Kong PPI & Industrial Production later today, while on Saturday we have Chinese Industrial Production & Retail Sales.
ASIA STOCKS: Foreign Investors Continue Selling Asian Tech Stocks
- South Korea: Saw $742m of outflows yesterday, with the past 5 sessions totaling -$2.43b, while YTD stands at +$13.02b. The 5-day average is -$487m, below both the 20-day average of -$185m and the 100-day average of -$6m.
- Taiwan: Experienced $313m of outflows yesterday, with the past 5 sessions reaching -$3.37b, while YTD is -$16.14b, marking the worst performance in the region. The 5-day average is -$673m, significantly below the 20-day average of -$298m and the 100-day average of -$172m.
- India: Recorded an inflow of $353m Tuesday, with the past 5 sessions now totaling +$801m, while YTD is +$19.94b. The 5-day average is +$153m, below the 20-day average of +$271m but above the 100-day average of +$57m.
- Indonesia: Saw an inflow of $15m yesterday, with the past 5 sessions netting +$175m, while YTD flows are +$2.10b. The 5-day average is +$35m, below the 20-day average of +$93m but above the 100-day average of +$10m.
- Thailand: Experienced an inflow of $79m yesterday, with the past 5 sessions now totaling +$745m, while YTD flows are -$2.78b. The 5-day average is +$149m, significantly above the 20-day average of +$26m and the 100-day average of -$12m.
- Malaysia: Saw an outflow of $30m yesterday, with the past 5 sessions netting +$114m, while YTD flows are +$933m. The 5-day average is +$23m, below the 20-day average of +$49m but above the 100-day average of +$15m.
- Philippines: Experienced an inflow of $6m yesterday, with the past 5 sessions totaling +$50m, while YTD flows are -$264m. The 5-day average is +$10m, slightly below the 20-day average of +$12m but above the 100-day average of -$4m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
OIL: Crude Continues Recovery But Pessimistic IEA Report Could Change That
Oil prices have continued to climb during APAC trading today after rising over 2% on Wednesday buoyed by better risk sentiment and concerns over the impact of Hurricane Francine on the energy sector. Prices are currently little changed on the week despite Tuesday’s sharp sell off.
- Brent is up 0.6% to $71.05/bbl after a high of $71.08, while WTI is 0.5% higher at $67.68/bbl, close to the peak of $67.72 but still down 8% this month.
- The IEA’s monthly report is published today and it tends to be less optimistic than OPEC on the crude outlook. Pessimistic demand projections may spook markets already nervous about a demand slowdown.
- EIA inventories rose 833k barrels last week, the first increase since mid-August, with gasoline up 2.31mn and distillate +2.31mn. Both gasoline and distillate demand were lower as the holiday season finished.
- Hurricane Francine made landfall in Louisiana today. 39% of Gulf of Mexico oil production has been shut because of the storm, according to US Bureau of Safety and Environment Enforcement. The question now is how long the outage will last. Also around eight land-based refineries may be impacted.
- Later US August PPI, budget and jobless claims print. Core PPI is expected to hold steady at 2.4% y/y. The ECB announces its decision today, which will be accompanied by updated staff forecasts and a press conference. It is expected to cut rates 25bp.
GOLD: Near All-Time Highs Ahead Of US PPI & Claims Data
Gold is steady in today’s Asia-Pac session, after closing 0.2% lower at $2511.76 on Wednesday. Earlier in yesterday's session it had risen briefly to a peak of $2,529, close to last month’s record high.
- Yesterday, US CPI data drove US Treasury yields higher and the curve flatter. The 2-year finished 5bps higher at 3.64% after hitting a new 2-year low earlier in the session. The 10-year was up 1bp at 3.65% in spite of a very successful auction. The curve closed in positive territory for a fourth straight day.
- US Core CPI surprised higher in August on a housing inflation rebound, rising 0.281% last month against expectations for a 0.2% increase. The annual rates for Headline and Core CPI were 2.5% and 3.2% respectively.
- While chances of a 50bp rate cut next week by the FOMC has fallen off, markets still have Thursday's PPI and weekly claims data to absorb.
- Lower rates are typically positive for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
- According to MNI’s technicals team, the trend condition is unchanged, and the primary direction remains up despite bullion continuing to trade in a range over recent weeks. Sights remain on $2,536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection.
THAILAND: Politics Weighs On Confidence, Less Fiscal Stimulus To Consumers
August consumer confidence moderated to 56.5 from 57.7, lowest since May 2023, with the economic component down to 50.2 from 51.7. Not only does growth in Thailand continue to underperform the rest of ASEAN, but sentiment was probably impacted by August’s political instability.
- There was significant political uncertainty in August, which likely weighed on sentiment by diminishing confidence in the system, although the issues were resolved quickly and smoothly. The new PM Paetongtarn took office on August 16 after former PM Srettha was removed by the Constitutional Court. On August 7, Move Forward, the winner of last year’s elections, was dissolved by the same court.
- Consumer confidence is signalling that consumption could slow further after it moderated to 4% y/y in Q2 from 6.9% and July posted its third consecutive annual contraction.
Thailand consumer confidence vs private consumption y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- The labour market is unlikely to provide support for additional spending with annual employment and wage growth close to flat (3-month average).
- The decision of new PM Paetongtarn to limit the digital wallet scheme handout only to those considered financially vulnerable is likely to limit the impact of fiscal stimulus on Thai consumption. 14.5mn people will now receive THB 10,000 each rather than the original 50mn (every adult), a significant reduction. The decision was made to ensure the programme is compliant with fiscal laws.
- Tourism is an important component of Thai consumption and it continues to recover with overseas arrivals up 24.6% y/y in July up from 22.3%.
Thailand tourism vs consumption
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
CHINA: Data Preview: China FDI Flows Likely to Continue their Decline.
- China’s real estate market malaise has impacted all parts of the economy.
- The upcoming release of Foreign Capital Flows is likely to continue a trend that began in June of 2023.
- Foreign capital flows turned negative in June 2023 and the pace of the contraction has grown steadily since.
- Each monthly data release in 2024 has seen an increase in the contraction and whilst this is not a data release where economists are surveyed, it is not a stretch to suggest that the release for August will be a continuation of the same.
- Authorities challenge will be to stabilize the economy to ensure that for foreign investors, China remains a viable investment destination going forward.
INDIA: Today’s Data Release to Provide Guidance on Rates.
- India has two major data releases could provide guidance on the possibility of a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s next meeting in October.
- July’s release saw significant moderating of inflation from 5.08 in June to 3.54% in July.
- Market expectations for August are for a further moderation to 3.47% on the back of declining food prices for the year-on-year comparison.
- The risk to this scenario remains Core inflation which has edged up in recent prints.
- Additionally, Industrial Production is set to be released where economists are predicting a rise from 4.2% in June to 4.6% for July.
- June’s release was a significant miss, relative to expectations with a decline in manufacturing surprising markets.
- The risk to the forecast uptick remains exports which have been moderating in June and July and given the small decline in July’s PMI, could see further softening in manufacturing.
ASIA FX: Rebounding Tech Equities Do Little For KRW, TWD Sentiment
North Asia currencies have shown relatively steady trends. USD/CNH is little changed last near 7.1250, outperforming the slightly softer tone to the yen, as broader risk appetite recovers. China equities are weaker, bucking the firmer regional trend, with regulatory shifts a potential headwind so far today. The USD/CNY fixing bias was neutral. Tech related markets have outperformed, following positive gains from the US session Wednesday.
- Still, there is little in the way of meaningful positive spillover to the likes of KRW and TWD. Spot USD/KRW is a touch lower, last near 1339. The Kospi is up 1.5% at this stage, but there is no sign of returning offshore inflows (so far -$40mn in net outflows so far today). Some offset is potentially coming from the tick up in US yields, which has played a role in firmer USD/JPY levels.
- It has been a similar theme for USD/TWD, which in spot terms is up slightly to 32.14 in latest dealings. TWD looks too weak relative to an improved equity backdrop, resilient export growth and lower US yields, but equity outflows from offshore investors and likely continued domestic capital outflow pressures are important offsets.
ASIA FX: SEA FX Modestly Weaker Amid Mixed Cross Asset Signals
In South East Asia FX, there has been a modest bias towards USD/Asia gains, but we sit away from best levels. At this stage, THB FX is the worst performer off a modest 0.15% against the USD. Cross asset trends have been mixed, with a firmer regional equity tone (albeit with tech related markets leading), while a further tick up in US yields has helped keep USD/JPY supported on dips in terms of the majors.
- USD/THB got above 33.80 in earlier trade, but sits back at 33.70 in latest dealings. This keeps the pair within recent ranges.
- Thailand August consumer confidence moderated to its lowest since May 2023. Not only does growth in Thailand continue to underperform the rest of ASEAN, but sentiment was probably impacted by August’s political instability. We should hear more about the new PM's plans to reform structural issues/boost growth later today. Reducing the household debt burden is a key focus point.
- USD/MYR opened above 4.3400, but the pair sits back near 4.3300 in latest dealings, with little news flow so far today. It is a similar backdrop for USD/PHP, which is hovering around 56.00 in latest dealings.
- USD/IDR is holding above 15410 in latest dealings. Recent lows at 15310 are firmly intact. The firmer equity backdrop is being offset by some US yield recovery for the pair.
SOUTH KOREA: Bond Wrap
- Politicians continue to put pressure on the BOK to cut rates with President Yoon’s policy chief telling reporters Wednesday that the stabilisation of inflation in Korea has created sufficient conditions for a rate cut.
- In its regular report to parliament, the BOK said it will consider the timing to reduce its benchmark interest rate while keeping its policy restrictive.
- Bonds hardly reacted today with limited yield movement.
2yr 3.079% 5yr 2.899% 10yr 2.993% (+2bp) 30yr 2.871%
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 12/09/2024 | - |  | EU | European Central Bank Meeting | |
| 12/09/2024 | 0600/0800 | *** |  | SE | Inflation Report |
| 12/09/2024 | 0700/0900 | *** |  | ES | HICP (f) |
| 12/09/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** |  | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 12/09/2024 | - | | UK | OBR Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report | |
| 12/09/2024 | 1215/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Deposit Rate |
| 12/09/2024 | 1215/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Main Refi Rate |
| 12/09/2024 | 1215/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
| 12/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 12/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 12/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | PPI |
| 12/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | * |  | CA | Building Permits |
| 12/09/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | | CA | Household debt-to-income |
| 12/09/2024 | 1245/1445 | | EU | ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference | |
| 12/09/2024 | 1345/1545 | | EU | Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections publications | |
| 12/09/2024 | 1415/1615 | | EU | ECB Podcast: Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions | |
| 12/09/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 12/09/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 12/09/2024 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 12/09/2024 | 1600/1200 | *** | | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 12/09/2024 | 1700/1300 | *** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 12/09/2024 | 1800/1400 | ** | | US | Treasury Budget |
4493 words