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EUR Crosses Come Under Pressure As ECB Beckons


Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up


Corrective Pullback


Trend Signals Remain Bearish

MNI European Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - There is a full data calendar on both sides of the Atlantic
Wednesday, with German inflation numbers and US Q2 GDP the standout features.
     The European calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the publication of the
Swiss KOF Economic Barometer. At the same time, the Spanish flash August
inflation data will be released.
     German state inflation data is also expected from 0700GMT, kicked of by the
release of the Saxony numbers
     Bundesbank Board member Andreas Dombret speaks at the live stream press
conference between Bundesbank and BaFin, in Frankfurt, starting at 0800GMT.
     The main UK data will be released at 0830GMT, when the Bank of England's M4
numbers and the Lending to Individuals report is published.
     Housing activity in the UK has softened somewhat in recent months as
household's grapple with rising inflation, subdued wage growth and an uncertain
business landscape. In June, mortgage approvals subsequently fell to a
nine-month low of 64,700.
     Casting our attention to July, analysts reckon we will see a pickup. The
median of analysts' forecasts is 65,800, with expectations as high as 66,600 and
as low as 64,000.
     At 65,800, this is in line with data published by UK Finance (formally the
BBA) earlier this week, who reported approvals up to 41,600 in July versus
40,400 in June.
     According to the BOE, secured lending rose to stg4.1bn in June and all
analysts see this figure retreating in July. Taking the median of analyst
expectations, a outturn of stg3.5bn is expected in July.
     Back on the Continent, at 0900GMT, the European Economic Sentiment
Indicator will be published, alongside the business climate Index.
     The US calendar gets underway at 1100GMT, with the release of the MBA
weekly applications index.
     The Federal German flash August inflation data will be released at 1200GMT.
     At 1215GMT, the ADP August employment report will cross the wire, with the
2nd estimate of the Q2 GDP data expected at 1230GMT.
     Second quarter GDP is expected to be revised up to a 2.7% rate from the
2.6% gain in the advance estimate. Analysts expect PCE and inventories growth to
be revised up, offset by a downward adjustment to the government component. The
chain price index is expected to be unrevised at a 1.0% rate of growth.
     At the same time, the Canadian payroll data will be published.
     Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will speak on The Role of Boards at
Large Financial Firms at the Large-Bank Directors Conference in Chicago, with
audience Q&A, starting at 1315GMT.
     The latest US help-wanted online index data is expected at 1400GMT, with
the DOE weekly crude oil stocks numbers expected at 1430GMT.
     The latest US farm prices data will be released at 1900GMT.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email:
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |