MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

22 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) Bulls Now Need Close Above Falling TL

*RES 4: 165.44 High June 26

*RES 3: 164.89 Falling daily TL

*RES 2: 164.79 Low June 21 now resistance

*RES 1: 164.64 High Aug 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 164.52

*SUP 1: 164.32 Hourly support Aug 21

*SUP 2: 164.00 Hourly support Aug 18

*SUP 3: 163.97 Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 163.69 Hourly support Aug 16

*COMMENTARY: The 164.00 support provided the base for Monday's rally with the

close above 164.21 seeing immediate focus back to 164.64-89 where the falling

daily TL is noted. Bull now look for a close above the falling daily TL to

confirm focus on tests of 165.44-55 where June highs are situated. Layers of

support remain with bears needing a close below 163.69 to ease immediate bullish

pressure and below the 55-DMA (163.17) to target 162.50-63.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) Key Resistance Capping

*RES 4: 133.01 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 132.95 High June 21 

*RES 2: 132.92 Falling daily TL 

*RES 1: 132.89 High Aug 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.85

*SUP 1: 132.76 Hourly support Aug 21

*SUP 2: 132.65 Low Aug 18

*SUP 3: 132.58 Low Aug 17

*SUP 4: 132.48 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on layers of resistance 132.92-95 with bulls

needing a close above to confirm initial focus on 133.26 June highs. Daily

studies looking to correct from O/B and the Bollinger top are key concerns for

bulls. In saying that, higher daily highs and lows see support layers building

and bears needing a close below 132.76 to gain breathing room and hint at a

correction back to 132.17-48 where key DMAs are clustered.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Above 112.190 Targets 112.230/280

*RES 4: 112.280 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.230 Monthly High June 12 

*RES 2: 112.222 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 112.200 High Aug 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.200

*SUP 1: 112.180 Hourly support Aug 21 

*SUP 2: 112.140 21-WMA 

*SUP 3: 112.130 High Aug 1, Daily bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 112.110 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 112.130-190 appears to have ended with a bullish

close above 112.190 that now sees bulls focused on the 112.230-280 region where

June highs and the daily bull channel top are located. Studies lingering at O/B

levels and the Bollinger top are key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close

below 112.160 to return pressure to 112.110-140 where 21 & 100-DMAs and the

21-WMA are situated.

GILT TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 127.52

*RES 4: 129.01 High June 15 

*RES 3: 128.68 High June 21 

*RES 2: 128.24 High Aug 11 

*RES 1: 128.05 High Aug 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 127.62

*SUP 1: 127.58 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 127.52 Low Aug 18 

*SUP 3: 127.22 Low Aug 16 

*SUP 4: 127.06 Low Aug 9

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 126.54-127.22 has provided the

catalyst for pressure to remain on the 128.24 resistance. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 128.24 to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially target

128.68-129.19. O/B daily studies remain a concern for bulls. In saying that,

bears still need a close below 127.52 to ease pressure on 128.24 and see focus

return to layers of support 126.54-127.22.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) 99.620 & 99.650 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 3: 99.671 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.662 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 1: 99.650 High June 21 & Aug Repeatedly

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.650

*SUP 1: 99.630 Repeated Daily Lows Aug

*SUP 2: 99.620 Low Aug 8 & 9

*SUP 3: 99.615 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.600 Low Aug 4

*COMMENTARY: The 99.650 resistance continues to cap attempts to break for a

fresh leg higher targeting 99.690 2017 highs. Initial support is noted at 99.630

but bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus to 55 & 100-DMAs

99.588-596. The Bollinger top (99.671) remains the key concern for bulls with

potential to limit follow through.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 100.375 - High Oct 4 

*RES 3: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 100.310 - 2017 High Aug 11 - 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.300 - Low Aug 11 - 16

*SUP 2: 100.298 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.285 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.275 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The support at 100.285 provided the base for a rally and fresh 2017

& 10mth highs with bullish focus currently on the 100.330-360 region last seen

in Oct 2016. Sideways trading defined last week. Layers of support remain with

bears needing a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the

55-DMA to signal a correction that initially targets the 100-DMA (100.270). The

Bollinger top (100.314) remains the key concern for bulls.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Below 126-180 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: 127-080 - Monthly High June 14 

*RES 3: 127-070 - 200-WMA 

*RES 2: 127-010 - High Aug 18 

*RES 1: 126-290 - High Aug 21

*PRICE: 126-240 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 126-220 - Hourly support Aug 21

*SUP 2: 126-180 - Low Aug 18

*SUP 3: 126-110 - Low Aug 17

*SUP 4: 126-030 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The 125-290/010 support region confirmed significance Wednesday

with the contact recovering from a close below 21 (126-090) & 55 (126-050) DMAs.

Friday's high lacked follow through but bulls reconfirmed dominance Monday with

focus on 127-010/090 where the 200-WMA is located. Bears now look for a close

below 126-180 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to layers of support

125-290/126-110.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus On 2017 Low

*RES 4: 2.250 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 2: 2.210 - High Aug 18 

*RES 1: 2.197 - Hourly resistance Aug 21

*PRICE: 2.192 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.164 - Low Aug 18 

*SUP 2: 2.162 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 2.121 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: 2.103 - 2017 Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: The 2.289 resistance confirmed significance with the yield rejected

ahead of this level and the sell-off resulting in bearish closes last week.

Initial focus has returned to 2.053-121 where 2017 lows and the 100-WMA are

situated. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing

a close above 2.229 to ease bearish pressure and above 2.264 to shift initial

focus back to 2.289.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Dominate While 3456.15 Caps 

*RES 4: 3497.29 High Aug 16 

*RES 3: 3484.66 High Aug 17 

*RES 2: 3456.15 Low Aug 17 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3448.39 High Aug 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3423.53

*SUP 1: 3412.65 Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 3411.06 Low Aug 21 

*SUP 3: 3395.25 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3390.04 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Attempts to break higher last week were stifled by layers of

resistance 3497.29-3539.48 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are situated.

Layers of resistance are building and weighing with bulls needing a close above

3456.15 to return focus to key resistance layers. While 3456.15 caps bears focus

on the 3355.40-3395.25 support region where the 200-DMA is situated. The

Bollinger base remains the key concern for bears.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]