MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

31 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) Supported Ahead Of Channel Base

*RES 4: 166.40 2017 High Feb 24

*RES 3: 165.93 Monthly High Apr 18

*RES 2: 165.69 High Aug 29

*RES 1: 165.31 High Aug 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 165.19

*SUP 1: 164.97 Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 2: 164.92 Low Aug 30

*SUP 3: 164.58 Low Aug 28

*SUP 4: 164.36 Low Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through Tuesday remains a concern for

bulls and sees bulls needing a close above 165.31 to retain focus on 165.69-93.

The Bollinger top and O/B studies remains the key concern for bulls. The daily

bull channel base is now initial support with bears now needing a close below

164.92 to confirm a break, easing bullish pressure and shifting initial focus

back to 164.00-36.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 192.94

*RES 4: 133.51 Daily Bull channel top B 

*RES 3: 133.36 High Aug 29 

*RES 2: 133.30 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 133.24 High Aug 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 133.16

*SUP 1: 133.06 Low Aug 30

*SUP 2: 132.96 Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 132.94 Low Aug 28

*SUP 4: 132.84 Low Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Tuesday's high leaves the contract

looking a little heavy with the 132.94-96 support key today. Daily studies

looking to correct from O/B increase the risk of a correction with bears needing

a close below 132.94 to confirm a break of the channel base and shift focus back

to 132.65-75 where the 21-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above 132.24 to

retain focus on the channel top.

SCHATZ TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 112.240

*RES 4: 112.341 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.300 High Apr 24 now support 

*RES 2: 112.290 Monthly High May 30, High Aug 29 

*RES 1: 112.287 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.270

*SUP 1: 112.240 Low Aug 30 

*SUP 2: 112.221 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: 112.215 Low Aug 28 

*SUP 4: 112.190 Low Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: Since sideways trading 112.130-190 ended the contract has attracted

support on dips. Bears now look for a close below 112.240 to confirm an easing

of bullish pressure and below 112.215 to shift immediate pressure to 112.171-190

where the 21-DMA is located. Overall below 112.130 is needed to target

112.046-073. While 112.240 supports immediate focus remains on 112.290-341. O/B

studies and the Bollinger top remain concerns for bulls.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 127.17 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 127.94 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 127.83 High Aug 29 

*RES 2: 128.81 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 127.54 High Aug 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 127.30

*SUP 1: 127.17 Low Aug 30 

*SUP 2: 126.84 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: 126.80 Low Aug 24 

*SUP 4: 126.53 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through Tuesday is less than ideal for bulls

given the proximity of the Bollinger band top that leaves the contract

pressuring 127.17. Bears now need a close below 127.17 to ease bullish pressure

and shift initial focus back to 126.49-84 where the 21-DMA and bull channel base

are noted. Bulls now need a close above 127.54 to retain immediate focus on

127.83-94.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Focused On 99.680-706

*RES 4: 99.706 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 2: 99.672 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.660 High Aug 29 & 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.650

*SUP 1: 99.640 Low Aug 29 & 30

*SUP 2: 99.632 21-DMA, Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 99.630 Repeated Daily Lows Aug

*SUP 4: 99.620 Low Aug 8 & 9

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 99.630-650 came to an end Tuesday with fresh 2mth

highs reconfirming the bullish bias and seeing bulls focused on 99.680-706 where

the bull channel top is noted. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a

close below 99.630 to ease bullish pressure and below 99.610 to pressure 55

(99.586) & 100 (99.598) DMAs. The Bollinger top remains the key concern for

bulls.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below Channel Base

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.321 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.315 - 2017 High Aug 22 - 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.304 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Low Aug 11 - 16, Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 100.287 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows July & Aug

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on recent 2017 highs with the Bollinger band top

capping and modestly O/B daily studies correcting also a concern and weighing a

little. In saying that, bears need a close below the daily bull channel base to

ease bullish pressure and below the 100.285 to signal a correction that

initially targets the 100-DMA (100.275). While the channel base supports bull

target 100.330-370.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 126-250/300 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 127-310 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 127-190 - 2017 High Aug 29 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 127-110 - Hourly resistance Aug 29 

*RES 1: 127-060 - Hourly resistance Aug 30

*PRICE: 127-000 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 126-300 - Repeated daily highs now support

*SUP 2: 126-250 - Hourly support Aug 25

*SUP 3: 126-200 - Hourly resistance Aug 22 now support, 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 126-160 - Low Aug 23

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking Tuesday with the Bollinger top (127-090)

the key concern for bulls who are focused on the 100-WMA. A weekly close above

the 100-WMA was last seen in Nov 2016. The 126-250/300 support remains key.

Bears need a close below 126-300 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below

126-250 to shift focus back to 126-110-200 where the bull channel base and

21-DMA are situated.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.155-180 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 3: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.180 - High Aug 28 

*RES 1: 2.155 - Low Aug 28 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.153 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.133 - Low Aug 30 

*SUP 2: 2.119 - Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.088 - 2017 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 4: 2.054 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure ahead of 2.229 in previous weeks resulted in fresh 2017 and

10mth lows with bears now initially focused on 1.991-2.054 andoverall focus on

1.879 (breakout level from Nov 2016). The recovery has stalled ahead of the

2.155-180 region. Bulls need a close above 2.155 to gain breathing room and

above 2.180 to shift focus back to 2.206-2.229. Bears look for a close below

2.119 to gain breathing room.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Hesitating Around 200-DMA 

*RES 4: 3467.78 High Aug 23 

*RES 3: 3451.52 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 3439.65 High Aug 28 

*RES 1: 3412.26 High Aug 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3403.71

*SUP 1: 3395.03 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 2: 3373.52 Hourly support Aug 29 

*SUP 3: 3363.68 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 4: 3355.40 High Feb 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capped recent attempts to return pressure to the 55-DMA

and bear channel top (3484.48) resulting in closes below the 200-DMA (3408.93).

Bears focus on 3324.94-3363.68 with a close below 3324.94 to target 2017 lows

(3214.31). Initial resistance is now noted at 3412.26 with bulls needing a close

above to shift focus back to 3451.52-3539.48. The Bollinger base (3385.54)

remains the key concern.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]