MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

23 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) 100-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: 162.78 High Oct 17

*RES 3: 162.56 High Oct 19

*RES 2: 162.04 Low Oct 19 now resistance

*RES 1: 161.63 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.50

*SUP 1: 161.35 Low Oct 20

*SUP 2: 161.07 Daily Bull channel base, Low Oct 9

*SUP 3: 160.95 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 160.59 Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: A double daily top left in place combined with daily studies

looking to correct from O/B provided the setup for the sell-off Friday that

resulted in closes below 21 & 55-DMAs with bears now focused on the previously

noted 160.95-161.07 where the daily bull channel base and 100-DMA are situated.

Below the 100-DMA hints at a move to 159.58-79 with below 160.24 to confirm.

Bulls now need a close above 162.04 to ease immediate bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Need Close Above 131.45

*RES 4: 131.76 High Oct 17 

*RES 3: 131.63 Hourly support Oct 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: 131.45 Hourly resistance Oct 20 

*RES 1: 131.37 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.34

*SUP 1: 131.13 Low Oct 11

*SUP 2: 131.05 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 130.96 Low Oct 6

*SUP 4: 130.90 Low Aug 16

*COMMENTARY: Bears were not disappointed with the correction last week resulting

in a dip below 21 (131.333) & 55 (131.339) DMAs Friday and bears now focused on

130.90-131.13 with the 100-DMA at 131.05. Resistance layers building and daily

studies correcting from O/B add to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close

above 131.45 to ease bearish pressure and above 131.76 to reconfirm the bullish

bias and target 2017 highs.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Focus On 21 & 55-DMAs

*RES 4: 112.267 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.250 Low Sept 8 & 11 now resistance 

*RES 2: 112.230 High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 112.205 Hourly resistance Oct 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.195

*SUP 1: 112.180 Low Oct 20 

*SUP 2: 112.170 Hourly resistance Oct 12 now support 

*SUP 3: 112.169 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 112.139 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top resulted in a

correction and a dip below 112.185. Follow through has so far been lacking with

the 112.139-170 supports key this week. Bears now look for a close below the

55-DMA to add weight to the case for a test of 112-065 Sept lows. The

112.250-285 resistance region is key but bulls look for a close above 112.205 to

ease bearish pressure and above 112.285 to target 112.360.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 125.21 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 125.51 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 125.21 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 125.00 High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 124.75 High Oct 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.37

*SUP 1: 124.22 Low Oct 20 

*SUP 2: 124.04 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 124.02 Low Oct 17 

*SUP 4: 123.46 Low Oct 13

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 125.00 level last week took its toll Friday

with a sell-off that leaves the contract looking a little heavy and focus now on

124.02-04. Bears now need a close below 124.02 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA

and shift focus back to 123.12-46. Daily studies correcting from modestly O/B

add weight to the bearish case. Layers of resistance remain 124.75-125.21 with a

close above needed to pressure 55 & 100-DMAs (125.51-68).

SHORT-STERILNG TECHS: (H18) 99.330 Support Key

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 2: 99.400 High Oct 20

*RES 1: 99.370 Hourly resistance Oct 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.360

*SUP 1: 99.330 Low Oct 18

*SUP 2: 99.320 Hourly resistance Oct 17 now support

*SUP 3: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*SUP 4: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2017 and 16mth lows saw a pop higher Friday

although follow through has been lacking. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 99.410 to shift immediate focus to 99.450-460 where the 55-DMA is located

Bulls retain the advantage while 99.330 supports with bears needing a close

below 99.330 to shift pressure back to 2017 lows.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.300-305 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 1: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.315 - Repeated daily highs Sept & Oct now support

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 3: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 100.297 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support at 100.305 provided the base for a break of 100.315 with

bulls focused on 100.320-325 where 2017 highs are situated. Overall a close

above 100.330 is needed to target 100.360. Bears still need a close below

100.305 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below 100.300 to initially

pressure the 100-DMA (100.297) and daily bull channel base (100.295).

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Bears Focused On July Low

*RES 4: 125-25+ High Oct 13 

*RES 3: 125-16+ Hourly support Oct 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: 125-05+ Hourly support Oct 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125-01+ Hourly resistance Oct 20

*PRICE: 124-25+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 124-22+ Low Oct 6, Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 124-14+ Monthly Lows July 6 & 7

*SUP 3: 124-13+ Daily Bear channel base A

*SUP 4: 123-20+ Daily Bear channel base B

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive recovery from ahead of 125-01+ remained capped ahead

of the 125-16+ resistance and the bear channel top (125-10+). Layers of

resistance building is adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close

above 125-16+ to ease bearish pressure and return focus to 125-25+/126-09 where

55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears remain focused on 124-14/22+ this week where

July lows are situated.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus On 2.402-437

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Mar 23 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.404 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.402 - High Oct 6

*PRICE: 2.383 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.350 - Hourly support Oct 20 

*SUP 2: 2.332 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 2.296 - Low Oct 17 

*SUP 4: 2.278 - Low Oct 16

*COMMENTARY: The 2.278 support confirmed significance with the yield supported

on dips back towards this level retaining bullish control. Focus remains on the

2.402-437 resistance region this week with bulls needing a close above to shift

initial focus to 2.544-558. The 2.332-350 support region is key today with bears

needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and see pressure back on the key

2.278 support below which targets 2.208-245.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3582.07 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: 3666.80 2017 High May 8 

*RES 3: 3643.12 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3625.87 High Oct 18 

*RES 1: 3617.52 Low Oct 18 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3605.09

*SUP 1: 3598.26 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 3591.29 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 

*SUP 4: 3556.50 Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through provided the catalyst for dips

back to the 21-DMA and daily bull channel base last week. Bears continue to look

for a close below 3582.07 to hint at a move back to 3506.61-3529.19 where 55 &

100-DMAs are noted. Daily studies correcting add weight to bearish case. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 3625.87 to reconfirm the bullish bias and

target 2017 highs and then the channel top (3698.80).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]