MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

5 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Weekly Close Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: 159.33 High Jan 31

*RES 3: 158.88 Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 2: 158.62 200-WMA

*RES 1: 158.36 High Feb 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.96

*SUP 1: 157.71 2018 Low Feb 2

*SUP 2: 157.52 Low Dec 29 2015

*SUP 3: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015

*SUP 4: 156.33 Weekly bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The first weekly close below the 200-DMA since 2011 adds weight to

the bearish case for tests of the weekly bear channel base and then 148.23 2015

lows. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base (158.15) remain concerns for

bears. In saying that, bulls need a close above 158.88 to ease bearish pressure

and above 159.66 to shift focus to 160.21-161.11 where the daily bear channel

top & 21-DMA are noted.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 130.630

*RES 4: 131.050 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 130.950 High Jan 26 

*RES 2: 130.770 Hourly resistance Jan 26 

*RES 1: 130.630 Low Jan 26 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.410

*SUP 1: 130.260 2018 Low Feb 2

*SUP 2: 130.167 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 129.460 High Dec 7 2015 now support

*SUP 4: 128.820 Monthly Low Dec 4 2015

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows following repeated topside failures at

130.630 leave the contract looking heavy and bears remaining focused on

128.82-129.46 last seen in Dec 2015. Initial resistance remains at 130.630 with

bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA

(131.059) to confirm a break of the bear channel top (131.018) targeting a

correction back to 131.450-520.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 111.900 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 111.985 High Jan 11 

*RES 3: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 111.900 Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: 111.870 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.860

*SUP 1: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 2: 111.765 2018 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 3: 111.750 Monthly Low May 3 2016 

*SUP 4: 111.624 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows sees the contract

recovering lost ground and pressuring layers of resistance. Bulls now need a

close above 111.900 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (111.887) and bear channel

top (111.860) to shift initial focus to 111.950-000. While 111.900 caps bears

remain focused on the 200-WMA with a close below 111.750 needed to add weight to

their case.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Supported Ahead Of 200-WMA For Now

*RES 4: 122.65 High Jan 30 

*RES 3: 122.22 Hourly support Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 2: 121.87 Low Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 1: 121.50 2018 Low Feb 1 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.34

*SUP 1: 120.92 2018 Low Feb 2 

*SUP 2: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016 

*SUP 3: 118.93 Monthly Low Apr 4 2016

*SUP 4: 117.61 High Jan 5 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the weekly close below the 200-WMA (121.38)

that sees immediate focus on 120.54 and overall focus on 114.41 2015 lows. O/S

daily studies remain the key concern for bears but as yet are not impacting.

Bulls now need a close above 121.87 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above

122.65 to shift focus back to 123.12-43 where the 21-DMA (123.31) is found.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Looking A Little Offered

*RES 4: 99.474 200-DMA

*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.440 21-DMA

*RES 1: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.425

*SUP 1: 99.415 2018 Low Feb 2

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.392 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21-DMA as it flirts with

the 55-DMA (99.424) and remains a little heavy. Bears now need a close below

99.390 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and target 99.300-310. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 99.450 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and to shift

focus to 99.472-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Above100.325 Targets 100.340-342

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.319 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Repeated Daily lows Jan

*SUP 2: 100.307 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5, Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA (100.307) holding firm so far in

2018 with bears needing a close below 100.305 to hint at a move back to 100.285.

Focus has returned to the 100.320-325 region with the Bollinger top currently

limiting follow through. Bulls now look for a close above 100.325 to target

100.340-342 where the bull channel top is noted. Daily studies lingering at

modestly O/B levels remains less than ideal for bulls.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 121-10+

*RES 4: 121-31 Low Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 3: 121-22 Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 2: 121-10+ Low Jan 31 now resistance

*RES 1: 121-02 Hourly support Feb 2 now resistance

*PRICE: 120-22 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-20+ 2018 Low Feb 5

*SUP 2: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 3: 118-24 Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 117-29 Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*COMMENTARY: Repeated 2018 and 6+ year lows leave the contract looking offered

and closing below the bear channel base. Focus now shifts to the 117-29/119-24

support region where levels last seen in 2011 are noted. O/S daily studies

remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now look for a close above 121-10+ to

ease immediate bearish pressure and above 121-31 to initially pressure

122-09+/20 where the 21-DMA is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Support Layers Building

*RES 4: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 3: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 1: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014

*PRICE: 2.864 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.820 - Hourly support Feb 2 

*SUP 2: 2.801 - Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.783 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 4: 2.754 - High Jan 31 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for repeated 2018 & 3+ year

highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.912-3.041 and overall focus now on

3.223. The Bollinger band top (2.847) and O/B studies remain concerns for bulls.

Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.820 to gain

breathing room and below 2.754 to shift focus back to 2.676-696. Bulls now look

for a close above 2.912 to add support to their case.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: 3636.05 Low Jan 29 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3570.95 High Feb 2 

*RES 1: 3554.21 200-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3523.28

*SUP 1: 3520.84 Low Jan 4 

*SUP 2: 3508.94 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: 3469.23 2018 Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: 3467.78 High Sept 9 now support

*COMMENTARY: Having failed to trouble 2017 highs on the recovery from 2018 lows

the index remains offered following closes below key DMAs with. The close below

the 200-DMA Friday adds weight to the case for a test of 2018 lows and then 100

(3293.30) & 200 (3292.65) WMAs. Layers of resistance are accumulating and

weighing with bulls needing a close above 3570.95 to ease bearish pressure.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]