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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

22 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (H18) Daily Bear Channel Top Confirms Significance
*RES 4: 159.33 High Jan 31
*RES 3: 158.85 High Feb 21
*RES 2: 158.78 Daily Bear channel top (Off Dec 15 High)
*RES 1: 158.61 Hourly resistance Feb 21
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.23
*SUP 1: 157.90 Low Feb 21
*SUP 2: 157.65 Low Feb 16
*SUP 3: 157.42 Low Feb 15
*SUP 4: 157.26 2018 Low Feb 8
*COMMENTARY: The daily bear channel top confirmed significance again leaving the
contract looking offered. Bulls now need a close above 158.85 to confirm a break
of the channel top and 21-DMA (158.57), easing bearish pressure and above 159.66
to shift focus to 160.67-161.21 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears need a
close below 157.90 to gain breathing room. A close below 157.26 remains needed
to add weight to the case for a test of the bear channel base (156.22).
     BOBL TECHS: (H18) Looking Heavy Again
*RES 4: 131.05 Low Jan 18 now resistance 
*RES 3: 130.99 High Feb 5 
*RES 2: 130.85 High Feb 21 
*RES 1: 130.74 Hourly resistance Feb 21
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.62
*SUP 1: 130.48 Low Feb 20
*SUP 2: 130.34 Low Feb 15
*SUP 3: 130.21 Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 130.16 2018 Low Feb 8
*COMMENTARY: The correction from 2018 lows looks to be in trouble with a lack of
topside follow through and relatively bearish close Wednesday. Bulls now need a
close above 130.85 to confirm a shift in initial focus to 130.99-131.05. Above
131.05 remains needed to target 131.38-52. Bears need a close below 130.48 to
gain breathing room and maintain focus on 2018 lows and then 128.91 Oct 2015
lows.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Key Resistance Region Capping
*RES 4: 111.985 High Jan 11 
*RES 3: 111.960 55-DMA 
*RES 2: 111.950 High Jan 23 
*RES 1: 111.930 High Feb 20 & 21
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.900
*SUP 1: 111.860 Low Feb 16 
*SUP 2: 111.840 Low Feb 15 
*SUP 3: 111.835 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: 111.800 Low Feb 8
*COMMENTARY: A continued lack of topside follow through is less than ideal for
bulls with layers of resistance noted 111.930-960 including the 55-DMA. Bulls
continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift
focus to 112.000-035 with the 100-DMA at 112.020. Bears need a close below
111.835 to reconfirm initial focus on 2018 lows. Fresh 2018 lows are needed to
initially target 111.580-660.
     GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 120.74 To Confirm Focus On 2018 Low
*RES 4: 122.65 High Jan 30 
*RES 3: 122.24 High Feb 6 
*RES 2: 121.82 High Feb 21 
*RES 1: 121.62 21-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.58
*SUP 1: 121.40 Low Feb 21 
*SUP 2: 120.74 High Feb 15 now support 
*SUP 3: 120.13 2018 Low Feb 15 
*SUP 4: 119.35 Low Apr 29 2016
*COMMENTARY: The correction from last week's 2018 lows is currently flirting
with the 21-DMA (121.62) with bulls now needing a close above 121.82 to confirm
initial focus on the 122.24-65 resistance region. Above 122.65 is now needed to
confirm a move back to 123.12-29. Bears now need a close below 121.40 to gain
breathing room and below 120.74 to return initial focus to 2018 lows and then
119.35 last seen in April 2016.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 99.370
*RES 4: 99.427 55-DMA
*RES 3: 99.415 Highs Feb 9 & 12
*RES 2: 99.405 Lows Feb 9 & 12 now resistance
*RES 1: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.370
*SUP 1: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29
*SUP 2: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 3: 99.310 Monthly Low Nov 1
*SUP 4: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17
*COMMENTARY: 99.435 recently provided the cap for a move that sees overall
bearish focus on 99.300-310 where 2017 lows are situated and a close below
99.370 to add weight to the case. Daily studies lingering at O/S is less than
ideal for bears. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above
99.405 to ease bearish pressure and above 99.450 to end bearish hopes and
initially target the 200-DMA (99.462).
     EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305
*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated Lows Dec, Jan & Feb
*SUP 2: 100.295 - Low Dec 1
*SUP 3: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct
*SUP 4: 100.280 - Monthly Low Sept 28
*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support remains key with repeated attempts to break
lower thwarted so far and leaving this level as the 2018 low so far. Bears
continue to look for a close below 100.305 to end bullish hopes and target
100.280-295.The 100.320-325 resistance region remains key. Bulls look for a
close above 100.325 to target 100.340 last seen in Oct 2016.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Pressuring Channel Base/2018 Low
*RES 4: 121-23  Hourly resistance Feb 6
*RES 3: 121-08  Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 2: 120-27  Low Feb 13 now resistance
*RES 1: 120-19+ High Feb 21
*PRICE: 120-07+ @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 120-01  2018 Low Feb 15
*SUP 2: 119-26+ Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 3: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011
*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011
*COMMENTARY: Continued failures ahead of the 120-27 resistance are taking their
toll with immediate pressure on 2018 lows. Bears look for a close below 119-24
to confirm a break of the bear channel base and focus on 117-29/118-24 last seen
in 2011. Bulls need a close above 120-27 to gain breathing room and above 121-23
to hint at a correction to 122-20/123-05+ with the 55-DMA at 122-21+. The
Bollinger base (119-25+) remains the key concern for bears.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Sideways Trading, 3368.1 Support Key
*RES 4: 3480.0 21-DMA 
*RES 3: 3474.9 Low Feb 5 now resistance 
*RES 2: 3469.2 Low Jan 2 now resistance 
*RES 1: 3436.7 High Feb 19
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3430.2
*SUP 1: 3398.6 Low Feb 16 
*SUP 2: 3368.1 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 
*SUP 3: 3306.6 2018 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: 3303.9 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from O/S remain the key concern for bears
and support a correction back to 3469.23-3474.86. Above the 21-DMA initially
targets DMAs clustered 3523.2-3600.4. Key support remains at 3368.1 with bears
needing a close below to end correction talk and retain focus on the 200-WMA
(3296.5). Bears need a close below the 200-WMA to target 2017 lows (3214.3).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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