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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

23 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (H18) 158.85-159.66 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 159.66 High Jan 29
*RES 3: 159.33 High Jan 31
*RES 2: 158.85 High Feb 21
*RES 1: 158.68 Daily Bear channel top (Off Dec 15 High)
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.68
*SUP 1: 158.17 Low Feb 21
*SUP 2: 157.90 Low Feb 21
*SUP 3: 157.65 Low Feb 16
*SUP 4: 157.42 Low Feb 15
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bear channel top continues with bulls
needing a close above 158.85 to confirm a break of the channel top and 21-DMA
(158.48), easing bearish pressure and above 159.66 to shift focus to
160.59-161.19 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now need a close below 158.17
to gain breathing room. A close below 157.26 remains needed to add weight to the
case for a test of the bear channel base (156.11).
     BOBL TECHS: (H18) Above 131.05 To Initially Target 131.32-52
*RES 4: 131.32 55-DMA
*RES 3: 131.05 Low Jan 18 now resistance 
*RES 2: 130.99 High Feb 5 
*RES 1: 130.85 High Feb 21
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.76
*SUP 1: 130.48 Low Feb 20
*SUP 2: 130.34 Low Feb 15
*SUP 3: 130.21 Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 130.16 2018 Low Feb 8
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips is less than ideal for bears as pressure
returns to 130.85. Bulls need a close above this level to gain breathing room
and above 131.05 to shift initial focus to 131.32-52 where the 55-DMA is
located. Bears continue to look for a close below 130.48 to gain breathing room
and maintain focus on 2018 lows with a close below targeting 128.91 Oct 2015
lows.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: 112.020 100-DMA 
*RES 3: 112.000 2018 Highs Jan 3 & 9 
*RES 2: 111.950 High Jan 23, 55-DMA 
*RES 1: 111.930 High Feb 20 - 22
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.910
*SUP 1: 111.895 Low Feb 21 
*SUP 2: 111.860 Low Feb 16 
*SUP 3: 111.840 Low Feb 15 
*SUP 4: 111.835 Low Feb 9
*COMMENTARY: A continued lack of topside follow through is less than ideal for
bulls with layers of resistance noted 111.930-950 including the 55-DMA. Bulls
continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift
focus to 112.000-035 with the 100-DMA at 112.020. Bears need a close below
111.895 to gain breathing room and below 111.835 to reconfirm initial focus on
2018 lows. Fresh 2018 lows are needed to initially target 111.580-660.
     GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 120.74 To Confirm Focus On 2018 Low
*RES 4: 123.12 High Jan 26 
*RES 3: 122.65 High Jan 30 
*RES 2: 122.24 High Feb 6 
*RES 1: 121.82 High Feb 21
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.63
*SUP 1: 121.29 Low Feb 22 
*SUP 2: 120.74 High Feb 15 now support 
*SUP 3: 120.13 2018 Low Feb 15 
*SUP 4: 119.35 Low Apr 29 2016
*COMMENTARY: The correction from last week's 2018 lows flirts with the 21-DMA
(121.56) with bulls needing a close above 121.82 to confirm initial focus on
122.65 resistance. Above 122.65 is still needed to confirm a move back to
123.12-29. Bears continue to look for a close below 121.40 to gain breathing
room and below 120.74 to return initial focus to 2018 lows and then 119.35 last
seen in April 2016.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Initial Focus Confirmed On 99.300-310
*RES 4: 99.415 Highs Feb 9 & 12
*RES 3: 99.405 Lows Feb 9 & 12 now resistance, 21-DMA
*RES 2: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance
*RES 1: 99.360 Hourly support Feb 22 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.345
*SUP 1: 99.330 2018 Low Feb 22
*SUP 2: 99.310 Monthly Low Nov 1
*SUP 3: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17
*SUP 4: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort as the sell-off Thursday confirms initial focus
on 99.300-310 with a close below this region then targeting 99.110-230 where
June 2016 monthly lows are noted. Layers of resistance remain with bulls now
needing a close above 99.360 to gain breathing room. A close above 99.390 is
then needed to shift focus back to 99.405435 where 21 & 55 (99.426) DMAs are
situated.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Focus Shifts To 100.280-295
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305
*SUP 1: 100.300 - Low Feb
*SUP 2: 100.295 - Low Dec 1
*SUP 3: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct
*SUP 4: 100.280 - Monthly Low Sept 28
*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support has finally been broken although follow through
has been lacking. In saying that, focus now shifts to layers of support
100.280-295 where the 200-DMA is situated. Layers of resistance have accumulated
with bulls needing a close above 100.315 to confirm a false break and return
focus to 100.320-325. Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an issue.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 120-19+/120-27 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 121-23  Hourly resistance Feb 6
*RES 3: 121-08  Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 2: 120-27  Low Feb 13 now resistance
*RES 1: 120-19+ High Feb 21
*PRICE: 120-10 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 120-01  2018 Low Feb 15
*SUP 2: 119-24+ Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 3: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011
*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through Thursday leaves a double daily bottom
120-01/02. Bears look for a close below 119-24 to confirm a break and focus on
117-29/118-24 last seen in 2011. Bulls still need a close above 120-27 to gain
breathing room and above 121-23 to hint at a correction to 122-18+/123-05+ with
the 55-DMA at 122-18+. The Bollinger base (119-24+) & O/S studies remain
concerns for bears.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Remains Supported On Dips
*RES 4: 3474.9 Low Feb 5 now resistance 
*RES 3: 3470.0 21-DMA 
*RES 2: 3469.2 Low Jan 2 now resistance 
*RES 1: 3440.2 High Feb 19
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3430.2
*SUP 1: 3393.3 Low Feb 22 
*SUP 2: 3368.1 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 
*SUP 3: 3306.6 2018 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: 3303.9 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The index remains supported on dips with a recovery from the break
below 3393.3 seeing focus remain on 3469.2-3474.9. Bulls now need a close above
3474.9 to initially target DMAs in the 3523.2-3600.4 region. Key support remains
at 3368.1 with bears needing a close below to end correction talk and retain
focus on the 200-WMA (3296.5). Bears then need a close below the 200-WMA to
target 2017 lows (3214.3).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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