MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

23 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 158.35-53 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 159.57 High Dec 27

*RES 2: 159.27 Monthly High Jan 8

*RES 1: 159.03 Daily Bull channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.81

*SUP 1: 158.53 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 2: 158.35 High Mar 16 now support

*SUP 3: 158.12 Hourly resistance Mar 20 now support

*SUP 4: 157.67 Low Mar 19

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation came to an end with an aggressive rally and pop

above the bull channel top that sees immediate bullish focus on 159.27-58 where

Jan highs are noted. The Bollinger top is noted at 158.73 with potential to

limit follow through. Layers of support building add to bullish confidence.

Bears now need a close below 158.35 to ease bullish pressure and below 156.88 to

confirm breaks of key supports and initially target 156.22.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 130.760 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 131.222 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 131.210 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 131.060 High Mar 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.950

*SUP 1: 130.860 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 2: 130.760 High Mar 19 now support

*SUP 3: 130.510 Low Mar 19

*SUP 4: 130.413 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation came to an end with a rally and pop above the

100-DMA (130.967) Thursday. Layers of support accumulating adds to bullish

confidence with focus having shifted to 131.210-450. Daily studies approaching

O/B is less than ideal. In saying that, bears now need a close below 130.760 to

ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to 130.380-510 where the

21-DMA is located.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Bears Now Need Close Below 111.915

*RES 4: 112.115 High Dec 18 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.065 Monthly Low Sept 21 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 111.970 High Mar 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.955

*SUP 1: 111.915 High Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 2: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 3: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 4: 111.805 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort from Thursday's gains with the close above

111.915 reconfirming bullish momentum and above 111.945 confirming initial focus

on 112-050/065. Layers of support accumulating adds to bullish confidence

although daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal. In saying that, bears

now look for a close below 111.915 to ease bullish pressure and shift initial

focus back to 111.805-855 where the 21-DMA (111.827) is located.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bollinger Band Top Limiting Follow Through

*RES 4: 122.90 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 122.42 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 122.26 High Mar 22 

*RES 1: 122.16 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.10

*SUP 1: 121.39 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support 

*SUP 2: 121.04 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: 120.69 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 4: 120.55 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 100-DMA following an aggressive rally

and bullish close Thursday with the Bollinger band top currently limiting follow

through. Layers of support left in the wake adds to bullish confidence. Bears

now look for a close below 121.49 to ease bullish pressure and return focus to

120.69-121.04 where the bull channel base (120.80) off Feb lows is located.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 2018 Lows Lacking Follow Through

*RES 4: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 3: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*RES 2: 99.170 High Mar 21

*RES 1: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.140

*SUP 1: 99.100 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 2: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support

*SUP 3: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*SUP 4: 99.012 Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from failures at the 99.200 level resulted in fresh

2018 & 10mth lows Thursday but the lack of follow through and bonce from ahead

of 99.012-080 is a concern for bears. In saying that, bulls now look for a close

above 99.150 to ease bearish pressure and above 99.170 to shift focus back to

99.200-220. Above this region initially targets 55 & 100-DMAs 99.242-270.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 100.285

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Repeated 2018 Highs Jan - Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 4: 100.264 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies at O/B levels and hesitation at 100.300 is less than

ideal for bulls who are focused on layers of resistance 100.320-340. Bulls now

need a close above 100.320 to maintain bullish momentum. Initial support remains

at 100.290 but bears continue to look for a close below 100.285 to gain

breathing room and below 100.275 to pressure DMAs 100.264-265.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Focus Now On 55-DMA & 121-01+ Resistance

*RES 4: 122-11  100-DMA

*RES 3: 122-02  Monthly High Feb 6

*RES 2: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 1: 120-29+ 55-DMA

*PRICE: 120-24+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-12+ Hourly support Mar 22

*SUP 2: 120-03  Low Mar 22

*SUP 3: 119-21+ Repeated Daily lows Feb

*SUP 4: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through and bounce from 119-14/21+ has resulted

in a break of the 120-23 resistance that repeatedly capped with immediate focus

now on 120-29+/121-01+ where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above

121-01+ to end bearish hopes and shift focus to 122-02/19+ where Feb highs, the

100-DMA and 100-WMA are found. Bears now need a close below 120-12+ to gain

breathing room.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 2.758 Targets 2.585-648

*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 2: 2.848 - Hourly resistance Mar 22 

*RES 1: 2.815 - Hourly resistance Mar 23

*PRICE: 2.806 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 2.761 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.758 - Low Feb 7 

*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through has seen pressure return to

2.758-786 where the 55-DMA is noted. The Bollinger base is key concern and

currently limits follow through. Bears continue to look for a close below 2.758

to end bullish hopes and initially target 2.585-648. Bulls now need a close

above 2.848 to gain breathing room and above 2.889 to shift focus back to

2.936-957.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Supported Ahead of 2018 Low & 200-WMA

*RES 4: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 3: 3448.63 High Mar 16 

*RES 2: 3424.31 Hourly resistance Mar 19 

*RES 1: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3348.19

*SUP 1: 3333.36 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 3320.09 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 3300.49 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The break below 3372.53 resulted in a sell-off that has so far

found support ahead of the 2018 low and 200-WMA. Bears continue to look for a

close below the 200-WMA to initially target 3214.31 2017 lows. The Bollinger

base is the key concern with potential to limit follow through. Initial

resistance is now noted at 3372.53 with bulls needing a close above to ease

bearish pressure. Above 3448.63 targets 3476.21-3485.57.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]