MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

26 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) Below 21-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 163.03 High May 30

*RES 3: 162.97 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 162.57 High June 25

*RES 1: 162.29 Hourly resistance June 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.13

*SUP 1: 162.01 Low June 25

*SUP 2: 161.80 Low June 22

*SUP 3: 161.26 Low June 21

*SUP 4: 161.17 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 21-DMA provided the

impetus for a rally Thursday that sees immediate focus on 162.84-163.03 and

overall focus on 2018 highs & the weekly bear channel top (164.48). Bears need a

close below 161.80 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to shift initial

focus back to 159.37-160.22 where the 55-DMA (159.61) is situated. Bulls look

for a close above 162.57 to add support to their case.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Below 131.770 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 132.970 Monthly High May 29 

*RES 3: 132.660 High May 30 

*RES 2: 132.554 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 132.280 High June 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.160

*SUP 1: 131.980 Hourly support June 21

*SUP 2: 131.770 High June 18 now support

*SUP 3: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*SUP 4: 131.190 High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Gains resumed Thursday with the close above 132.120 confirming

focus on a move back to 132.660-970. The Bollinger top is the key concern for

bulls with potential to limit follow through. Bears continue to look for a close

below 131.770 to gain breathing room. Below 131.49 is then needed to hint at a

move back to 130.590-906 where the 55-DMA (130.906) is situated with below

131.190 to confirm.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) 112.155 Resistance Remains Key Today

*RES 4: 112.270 High May 30 

*RES 3: 112.199 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 1: 112.135 High June 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.105

*SUP 1: 112.055 Hourly support June 21 

*SUP 2: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 3: 111.940 High June 13 now support 

*SUP 4: 111.865 Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the closes above 112.065 with a close above

112.155 remaining needed to confirm a shift in focus back to 112.270-425 where

2018 highs are noted. Support layers building added to bullish confidence. Bears

still need a close below 112.055 to gain breathing room and below 111.940 to

shift focus back to 111.815-868 where 55 (111.868) & 100 (111.832) DMAs are

noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) Above 123.64 To Target 124.67

*RES 4: 123.93 Hourly resistance May 29 

*RES 3: 123.69 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 1: 123.19 High June 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.91

*SUP 1: 122.58 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 122.28 Low June 21 

*SUP 3: 122.14 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 4: 121.68 Hourly support June 12

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 21-DMA Thurs was aggressively reversed with

immediate pressure on the 123.19-64 resistance region. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 123.64 to initially target 124.67. Bears still need a close

below 122.14 to shift initial focus back to 121.33-73 where the 55-DMA (121.58)

is located. The Bollinger top and O/B studies are the key concern for bulls with

potential to limit follow through on a break higher.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.200

*RES 4: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.210 Low June 14 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.200 Lows June 6 - 8 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.190 High June 22 & 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.185

*SUP 1: 99.174 200-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.172 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*SUP 4: 99.132 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure at 99.260 last week confirmed the significance of this

level and resulted in a break lower and immediate pressure on the 55-DMA. Below

the 55-DMA confirms focus on the 100-DMA. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA

to target 98.990-99.060 where 2018 lows are situated. Bulls now need a close

above 99.200 to gain breathing room and above 99.260 to shift initial focus to

98.300 2018 highs.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 21 & 200-DMAs Key Supports This Week

*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 3: 100.307 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.280

*SUP 1: 100.274 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.265 - High June 11 now support, 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.245 - Lows June 7 & 8

*SUP 4: 100.235 - Low May 31

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies lingering at O/B levels is less than ideal for bulls. Bears still need a

close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA to shift

immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 120-06

*RES 4: 121-03  High May 30

*RES 3: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 2: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30

*RES 1: 120-06  High June 19

*PRICE: 120-00+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-27+ Low June 25

*SUP 2: 119-20+ Low June 22

*SUP 3: 119-13+ Low June 21

*SUP 4: 119-09  Hourly resistance June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the lack of downside follow through on the

break of 119-14+ with gains to start the new week seeing immediate pressure back

on the 120-06 high from last week. Bulls look for a close above 120-06 to

confirm focus on 121-03/12+. Bears now need a close below 119-27+ to gain

breathing room and below 119-13+ to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (119-13+) and

hint at a move back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.853 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 2: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 1: 2.897 - High June 25

*PRICE: 2.874 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.853 - Low June 19 

*SUP 2: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to trouble key layers of resistance and in

particular 3.014 with the yield again looking offered. The 2.853 support remains

key. Bears need a close below this level to reconfirm a bearish bias and

initially target 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted. Bulls now need a

close above 2.950 to gain breathing room and above 3.014 to end bearish hopes

and initially target 2018 highs.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Focused On 2018 Low/200-WMA

*RES 4: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*RES 3: 3469.94 Hourly resistance June 18

*RES 2: 3410.89 Hourly resistance June 25

*RES 1: 3395.27 Low June 21 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3369.21

*SUP 1: 3320.99 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: 3300.50 Low Apr 4 

*SUP 3: 3261.86 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: 3252.29 High Feb 8 2017 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 100-WMA (3393.38) and 3383.17 to start the new

week adds weight to the case for a test of the 3261.86-3320.99 region where the

200-WMA is situated. The Bollinger base (3385.30) is the key concern for bear

with potential to limit follow through. Bulls now need a close above 3410.89 to

gain breathing room and above 3469.94 to shift immediate focus back to

3502.02-3540.03.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]