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US TSYS

Flat Restart After Aggressive Twist Flattening

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Sell-Off Resumes

27 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 162.70
*RES 4: 162.70 Low July 19 now resistance
*RES 3: 162.60 21-DMA
*RES 2: 162.47 High July 25
*RES 1: 162.21 Hourly support July 25 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.99
*SUP 1: 161.75 Low July 11
*SUP 2: 161.27 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 161.26 Low June 21
*SUP 4: 160.22 High June 13 now support
*COMMENTARY: The 161.75 support confirmed significance with a bounce from ahead
of this level Tuesday. Bears continue to look for a close below 161.75 to shift
initial focus back to 161.26-27 where the 55-DMA is noted. Below 161.26 is now
needed to target 159.37-160.22 with the 100-DMA at 159.94 The 162.70 resistance
remains key. Bulls still need a close above 162.70 to regain the upper hand and
shift focus back to 163.39-164.19.
     BOBL TECHS: (U18) Above 21-DMA To Shift Focus Higher
*RES 4: 132.098 21-DMA 
*RES 3: 132.040 High July 23 
*RES 2: 132.000 High July 25 
*RES 1: 131.940 High July 26
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.820
*SUP 1: 131.720 Low July 26
*SUP 2: 131.651 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 131.500 Low June 15
*SUP 4: 131.191 High June 13 now support
*COMMENTARY: The contract remains heavy having broken 131.770 although follow
through has been lacking. Bears now focus on the break of 131.500 needed to
confirm traction below the 55-DMA and initially target 131.191. Initial
resistance is now noted at 131.920. Bulls need a close above this level to gain
breathing room and above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 132.290-330. Above
132.330 remains needed to target 132.660-970.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) 21 & 55-DMAs Key Resistance Levels
*RES 4: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 now resistance 
*RES 3: 112.032 21-DMA 
*RES 2: 112.010 High July 23 
*RES 1: 111.993 55-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.955
*SUP 1: 111.935 Low July 26 
*SUP 2: 111.884 100-DMA 
*SUP 3: 111.865 Monthly Low June 14 
*SUP 4: 111.815 Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 111.940 resulted in a marginal break although the lack
of follow through and bounce is less than ideal for bears. Bears now look for a
close below 111.935 to confirm initial focus on 111.865-886 where the 100-DMA is
located. Bulls continue to look for a close above 112.010 to confirm traction
above the 55-DMA and ease bearish pressure with above the 21-DMA to shift focus
higher.
     GILT TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 123.41
*RES 4: 124.67 High May 29 
*RES 3: 124.27 High July 20 
*RES 2: 123.84 Hourly support July 19 now resistance 
*RES 1: 123.41 Hourly resistance July 23
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.21
*SUP 1: 122.94 Low July 17 
*SUP 2: 122.76 Low July 9 
*SUP 3: 122.55 Low June 22 
*SUP 4: 122.52 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on the break of the rising
TL off May lows with U18 recovering from its lows and support emerging on dips.
Layers of support remain 122.28-94 with bears needing a close below 122.28 to
end bullish hopes and shift initial focus to 121.73-83 where the 100-DMA is
noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above 123.41 to gain breathing room
and above 123.84 to focus on 124.27-67.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA
*RES 4: 99.207 55-DMA
*RES 3: 99.186 Daily Bear channel top off May 30 high
*RES 2: 99.167 200-DMA
*RES 1: 99.150 Lows July 5 & 23 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.135
*SUP 1: 99.130 Low July 24
*SUP 2: 99.090 High Apr 26 now support
*SUP 3: 99.060 Low Apr 24
*SUP 4: 99.030 Low Apr 18
*COMMENTARY: The break of 99.140 has lacked follow through although bears take
comfort as the contract gains traction below the 100-DMA. Focus has now shifted
to 99.060-090. Initial resistance is now noted at 99.150. Bulls now need a close
above this level to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA to shift focus
back to the 55-DMA. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower before
O/S is an issue.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 3: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 
*RES 2: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 
*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15, Repeated highs July
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300
*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows July
*SUP 2: 100.285 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25, 200-DMA
*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support
*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls still need a close
above this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily
studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears still need a
close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a
break of the 200-DMA (100.275), shifting immediate focus back to 100.245 and
overall focus back to 2018 lows.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Now Need Close Below 118-29+
*RES 4: 119-30  Hourly support July 23 now resistance
*RES 3: 119-26+ Alternating Daily support/resistance
*RES 2: 119-22+ High July 25
*RES 1: 119-18+ High July 26
*PRICE: 119-09 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 119-06  Low June 14
*SUP 2: 118-29+ Monthly Low June 13
*SUP 3: 118-19  High May 22 now support
*SUP 4: 118-09  Low May 21
*COMMENTARY: Resistance layers building adds to bearish confidence as does
topside hesitation around the 55 (119-20+) & 100 (119-23+) DMAs. Bears currently
focus on 118-29+/119-06. Bears now look for a close below 118-29+ to add weight
to the case for a test of May lows (117-30). Bulls now need a close above 119-30
to shift focus back to the key 120-13+/20 resistance region.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Initial Focus On 3.014-084
*RES 4: 3.128 - 2018 High May 18 
*RES 3: 3.084 - High May 21 
*RES 2: 3.050 - Low May 22 
*RES 1: 3.014 - High May 24
*PRICE: 2.984 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.971 - Hourly resistance July 26 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.947 - Low July 26 
*SUP 3: 2.922 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: 2.902 - Hourly resistance July 23 now support
*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance with an aggressive bounce from
ahead of this level Wednesday reconfirming bullish focus on 3.014-084. Bulls
need a close above 3.084 to confirm initial focus on 3.128-223 where 2018 highs
are noted. Bears still need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and
below 2.880 to shift initial focus back to 2.807.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Focus Shifts To 3540.03-3566.53
*RES 4: 3566.53 Low May 18 now resistance
*RES 3: 3543.81 Daily bear channel top off 2018 high
*RES 2: 3540.64 High June 15
*RES 1: 3516.60 Bollinger band top
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3509.26
*SUP 1: 3487.19 Hourly support July 26 
*SUP 2: 3460.00 Low July 25 
*SUP 3: 3444.55 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 3418.06 Low July 12
*COMMENTARY: The rally Thursday resulted in a marginal close above the 200-DMA
(3506.41) that now sees initial focus shift to 3540.64-3566.53 where the bear
channel top off 2018 highs is noted. Bulls now need a close above 3566.53 to
initially target 3596.20 May highs with overall focus shifting to 3687.22 2018
highs. Bears need a close below 3487.19 to gain breathing room.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]