MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

28 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On 200-WMA

*RES 4: 161.13 High Jan 23

*RES 3: 160.85 High Jan 24

*RES 2: 160.36 High Jan 26

*RES 1: 160.09 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.80

*SUP 1: 159.74 Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 159.66 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 3: 158.73 2017 Low Mar 14

*SUP 4: 158.55 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off Thursday resulted in fresh 2018 & 9mth lows with

bears taking comfort in Friday's topside failure and bearish close that retains

focus on 158.55-73 where 2017 lows and the 200-WMA are situated. Bulls now look

for a close above 160.36 to gain breathing room and above 161.13 to confirm

breaks of the 21-DMA (161.92) & bear channel top (160.72), shifting focus to

161.55-162.04 where 55 (162.02) & 100 (161.72) DMAs are noted.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) 130.920-131.050 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 131.290 High Jan 24 

*RES 3: 131.050 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: 130.950 High Jan 26 

*RES 1: 130.770 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.660

*SUP 1: 130.630 2018 Low Jan 26

*SUP 2: 130.390 Monthly Low Nov 14 2016

*SUP 3: 130.380 2016 Low Mar 10

*SUP 4: 130.320 Monthly High Dec 3 2015 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows continued Friday with the Bollinger base the key

concern given potential to limit follow through. In saying that, layers of

resistance continue to build and add weight to the bearish case for a move

targeting 130.320-398 where monthly and yearly lows are situated. Bulls now need

a close above 130.920 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above 131.050 to

target a correction back to 131.350-520.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Looking Offered, Below 111.805 Targets 200-WMA

*RES 4: 111.985 High Jan 11 

*RES 3: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 111.900 Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: 111.870 Hourly resistance Jan 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.830

*SUP 1: 111.830 2018 Low Jan 12 & Jan 26 

*SUP 2: 111.805 2017 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: 111.800 Low May 20 2016 

*SUP 4: 111.750 Monthly Low May 3 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to gain traction above the 21-DMA (111.921) with the

sell-off pressuring 2018 lows. Layers of support are now noted 111.617-805 where

the 200-WMA (111.617) and 2017 low are situated. Bears need a close below the

2017 low to confirm focus on tests of the 200-WMA with a close below last seen

in Oct 2008. Bulls now need a close above 111.900 to ease bearish pressure and

above 111.950 to initially target 111.985-000.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 122.44 To Confirm Focus On 200-WMA

*RES 4: 123.82 High Jan 19 

*RES 3: 123.43 High Jan 24 

*RES 2: 123.26 2018 Low Jan 12 now resistance 

*RES 1: 123.12 Low Nov 30 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.63

*SUP 1: 122.53 2018 Low Jan 26 

*SUP 2: 122.44 Monthly Low Oct 25 

*SUP 3: 121.32 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016

*COMMENTARY: The contract remained capped ahead of key DMAs in past weeks with

the sell-off Wednesday leaving H18 looking a little heavy. The closes below

123.12 sees immediate focus on the close below 122.44 needed to target the

200-WMA and then the May 2015 monthly low beneath. Layers of resistance are

weighing with bulls needing a close above 123.26 to ease bearish pressure and

above 123.43 to initially pressure 123.82.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Pressure Returns to 55-DMA

*RES 4: 99.476 200-DMA

*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.443 21-DMA

*RES 1: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.430

*SUP 1: 99.421 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.399 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level held firm with topside failures finally

taking their toll and Thursday's bearish close seeing focus back to 55 &

100-DMAs. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to target 99.300.310 with

below 99.390 to add weight to the case. Bulls continue to look for a close above

99.450 to shift focus to 99.476-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305 & 100.315 Levels Key

*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 2: 100.317 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Jan 17 & 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA (100.306) holding firm so far in

2018 with bears needing a close below 100.305 to hint at a move back to 100.285.

The pops above 21 & 55-DMAs lack follow through with bulls still needing a close

above 100.315 to confirm a break, ease bearish pressure and shift initial focus

to 100.320-325. Bollinger bands now narrowing hints at a break out in the short

term.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 122-20 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 122-30 Hourly resistance Jan 17

*RES 3: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 2: 122-10+ Hourly resistance Jan 26

*RES 1: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 122-02 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 121-31 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 2: 121-23+ Bollinger Band Base

*SUP 3: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011

*SUP 4: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in bounces remaining capped ahead of the 122-20

resistance which remains key. Bulls need a close above to hint at a correction

back to 123-01+/123-20 where a channel top and 21-DMA are situated. Bears remain

focused on 120-25+/121-22+ while 122-20 caps but need a close below 121-31 to

add weight to their case.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.692 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014 

*RES 3: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 2: 2.676 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 1: 2.650 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.662 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.609 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.540 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support remains key with dips last week remaining

supported around this level and immediate pressure remaining on 2.676-692. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 2.692 to confirm focus on 2.763-821 where the

daily bull channel top (2.787) is situated. Bears still need a close below 2.609

to ease bullish pressure and below 2.571 to hint at a correction back to

2.489-540 where the 21-DMA is noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Key DMAs Noted 3551.72-3603.47

*RES 4: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1 

*RES 3: 3687.29 2018 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 3674.50 High Jan 24 

*RES 1: 3659.33 High Jan 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3647.41

*SUP 1: 3637.40 Alternating support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 3614.06 Low Jan 25 

*SUP 3: 3603.47 Low Jan 15 

*SUP 4: 3601.75 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take a little comfort having regain lost ground Friday. In

saying that, bulls still need a close above 3659.33 to pressure 2018 highs and

return focus to tests of 2017 highs. Correcting O/B studies remain a concern for

bulls. Layers of support remain 3551.72-3603.47 where key DMAs are situated.

Bears still look for a close below the 200-DMA to add weight to the case for a

correction back to 2018 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]