MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

30 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.1916

*RES 4: $1.2131 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $1.2092 Low Jan 1 2016 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.2070 2017 High Aug 29 

*RES 1: $1.2009 Hourly support Aug 29 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1983 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1943 Hourly resistance Aug 28 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1916 Hourly support Aug 25 

*SUP 3: $1.1890 Hourly resistance Aug 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1861 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 highs continued Tuesday as bulls focus on the daily bull

channel top around $1.2131 today. The Bollinger top ($1.1975) appears to be

impacting with the pair capped ahead of $1.2092 for now. Layers of support

remain with bears still needing a close below $1.1916 to ease bullish pressure

and below $1.1828 to shift focus back to $1.1665-77 where the bull channel base

is noted.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2978

*RES 4: $1.3031 High Aug 10 

*RES 3: $1.2990 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: $1.2978 High Aug 29 

*RES 1: $1.2956 Hourly resistance Aug 29

*PRICE: $1.2936 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2905 Hourly support Aug 28 

*SUP 2: $1.2868 Hourly support Aug 25 

*SUP 3: $1.2845 Hourly resistance Aug 22 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2813 Hourly support Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-DMA ($1.2935) as bulls now

look for a close above $1.2978 to confirm focus on $1.3031 and above this level

to shift focus back to $1.3157-1.3278. Layers of support remain in place with

bears still needing a close below $1.2905 to ease pressure on the 55 & 21-DMAs

and below $1.2845 to return pressure to $1.2770.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.03-37 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y111.05 High Aug 4 

*RES 3: Y110.37 High Aug 17 

*RES 2: Y110.03 Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 1: Y109.92 Hourly resistance Aug 30

*PRICE: Y109.74 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.41 Hourly resistance Aug 28 now support 

*SUP 2: Y108.96 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 3: Y108.27 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 4: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17

*COMMENTARY: The Y108.10 support confirmed significance with the pair bouncing

aggressively. Pressure has returned to Y110.03-37 with bulls needing a close

above Y110.37 to confirm a shift in focus back to Y111.05-33. Bears still need a

close below Y108.10 to hint at a shift lower with below Y107.47 to confirm

immediate focus on Y106.95 and overall focus on Y99.08-101.16. A close below

Y108.96 is needed to retain focus on Y107.47-108.10.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y130.97

*RES 4: Y132.79 High Dec 22 2015 

*RES 3: Y132.23 2016 High Jan 29 2016 

*RES 2: Y131.71 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y131.64 2017 High Aug 30, High Feb 4 2016

*PRICE: Y131.46 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.97 Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.30 Hourly resistance Aug 29a now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.88 Hourly support Aug 29 

*SUP 4: Y129.60 Low Aug 29

*COMMENTARY: The Y129.37 support confirmed significance with support emerging

ahead of this level in early Asia Tuesday. The Y129.37 support remains key with

bears needing a close below to shift focus back to the 55-DMA (Y128.75). The

recovery from Tuesday's dip has resulted in fresh 2017 highs with bulls now

shifting focus to Y132.23-79 where 2016 highs are located. Initial support is

noted at Y130.97 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Focus Now On 2016 High

*RES 4: Gbp0.9365 2016 High Oct 6

*RES 3: Gbp0.9307 2017 High Aug 29

*RES 2: Gbp0.9280 Hourly support Aug 29 now resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.9270 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.9264 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.9248 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.9230 Low Aug 28 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.9215 Hourly resistance Aug 25 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.9189 Hourly support Aug 23a

*COMMENTARY: Bulls managed a pop above the daily bull channel top (Gbp0.9293) on

the way to fresh 2017 and 10mth highs although follow through has been lacking

with the Bollinger top (Gbp0.9307) a concern along with very O/B studies. Bears

continue to look for a close below Gbp0.9215 to shift focus back to the key

Gbp0.9149-78 support region. Below Gbp0.9149 remains needed to shift focus back

to Gbp0.9089-0.9128 where the 21-DMA (Gbp0.9128) is located.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7863-0.7903 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $0.8165 - 2015 High May 14

*RES 3: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27

*RES 2: $0.8044 - High Aug 1

*RES 1: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1

*PRICE: $0.7992 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7963 - Hourly resistance Aug 30 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7940 - Hourly resistance Aug 28 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7921 - Hourly support Aug 29 

*SUP 4: $0.7903 - Low Aug 29

*COMMENTARY: Support continues to emerge on dips back towards the bull channel

base with the $0.7863-0.7903 support region key. Bears now need a close below

$0.7903 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $0.7863 to confirm a break

of the channel base and shift initial focus to $0.7781-0.7807 where the 55-DMA

($0.7796) is located. While $0.7903 supports bulls remain focused on 2017 highs.

The Bollinger top ($0.7991) is the key concern for bulls.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.591-93.117 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 93.451 - Hourly resistance Aug 23 

*RES 3: 93.117 - Hourly support Aug 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: 92.820 - Hourly resistance Aug 25a 

*RES 1: 92.591 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: 92.293 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 91.621 - 2017 Low Aug 29

*SUP 2: 91.514 - Low Jan 15 2015

*SUP 3: 91.117 - Low Jan 6 2015

*SUP 4: 91.331 - Low Jan 2 2015

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 2+ year lows for the index lacked follow through

with the Bollinger base (92.243) remaining an issue and leaving the move looking

a little overdone at yesterday's lows. The 200-WMA remains initial resistance

with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above 93.117 to

shift focus back to 93.451-94.145. While 93.117 caps bears focus on tests of

89.776-90.325 with a close below 91.331 to add weight to their case.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 3: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.180 - High Aug 28 

*RES 1: 2.155 - Low Aug 28 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.148 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.119 - Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.088 - 2017 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 3: 2.054 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 1.991 - Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: Failure ahead of the 2.229 in previous weeks has resulted in fresh

2017 and 10mth lows with bears now initially focused on 1.991-2.054 with overall

focus on 1.879 which is the breakout level from Nov 2016. The lack of follow

though is less than ideal with the Bollinger base hinting the move is a little

overdone. The 2.155-180 resistance is key today with bulls needing a close above

2.155 to gain breathing room and above 2.180 to shift focus back to 2.206-2.229.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (V17) Below $45.21 Targets June Low 

*RES 4: $47.77 - Hourly resistance Aug 28a 

*RES 3: $47.20 - Hourly resistance Aug 28 

*RES 2: $46.96 - High Aug 28 

*RES 1: $46.59 - Hourly resistance Aug 29

*PRICE: $46.31 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $46.18 - Hourly support Aug 30 

*SUP 2: $45.76 - Low Aug 29 

*SUP 3: $45.58 - Low July 24 

*SUP 4: $45.21 - High July 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the $48.91-49.31 resistance region has resulted

in a sell-off and closes below the 55-DMA ($46.92) with immediate focus back on

$45.21-58. Bears need a close below $45.21 to shift focus to $42.52 June lows.

Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls now needing a close above

$46.96 to gain breathing and above $47.20 to return focus to layers of

resistance $48.18-49.31.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1295.5 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1352.6 - Monthly High Sept 7 

*RES 3: $1343.6 - High Sept 22 

*RES 2: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 

*RES 1: $1326.1 - 2017 high Aug 29

*PRICE: $1312.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1303.5 - Hourly support Aug 28 

*SUP 2: $1299.5 - Hourly resistance Aug 28 now support a 

*SUP 3: $1295.5 - Hourly support Aug 28a 

*SUP 4: $1287.9 - Hourly support Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 2017 and 10mth highs is a

concern for bulls with the Bollinger top ($1313.80) remaining an issue. The

$1295.5 support is key today with bears needing a close below to shift focus

back to $1275.3-1282.9 where the 21-DMA is situated. While $1295.5 supports

bulls remain focused on $1337.4-1352.6 where Sept highs are noted. O/B daily

studies are now a concern for bulls.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]