MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

31 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1689-1.1725 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.1785 Hourly resistance Oct 26 

*RES 3: $1.1725 Low Oct 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.1689 Hourly support Oct 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.1659 Hourly resistance Oct 26

*PRICE: $1.1629 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1575 Low Oct 27 

*SUP 2: $1.1522 Daily bear channel base 

*SUP 3: $1.1478 Low July 20 

*SUP 4: $1.1369 High July 5 now support

*COMMENTARY: Following the topside failure around the 55-DMA ($1.1830) last week

the pair headed lower with bears focused on $1.1478-1.1575 where the bear

channel base is noted. The weekly close below the 200-WMA ($1.1671) added weight

to the bearish case. The Bollinger base ($1.1616) remains the key concern and

currently limits follow through. Bulls need a close above $1.1689 to ease

bearish pressure and above $1.1725 to target the 55-DMA.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.2995 & $1.3340 Levels Key

*RES 4: $1.3300 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1.3279 High Oct 26 

*RES 2: $1.3240 Hourly resistance Oct 26b 

*RES 1: $1.3214 High Oct 30

*PRICE: $1.3196 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3166 Hourly support Oct 30 

*SUP 2: $1.3150 Hourly support Oct 30 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3120 Hourly support Oct 30 

*SUP 4: $1.3100 Hourly support Oct 27

*COMMENTARY: Cable currently trades sideways in a broad $1.3024-1.3340 range.

Having failed to trouble the $1.2995-1.3024 support and bouncing from ahead of

the 100-DMA ($1.3070) there is an increased risk of a retest of the

$1.3279-1.3340 region. Bulls look for a close above $1.3340 to end bearish hopes

and initially target $1.3461-1.3514. Bears need a close below $1.2995 to shift

overall focus to the 200-DMA ($1.2845).

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.52-00 Resistance Region Now Key

*RES 4: Y115.24 Falling LT weekly TL 

*RES 3: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 

*RES 2: Y114.00 Hourly resistance Oct 28 

*RES 1: Y113.52 Hourly support Oct 30 now resistance

*PRICE: Y113.16 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.91 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 3: Y112.30 Low Oct 19 

*SUP 4: Y111.72 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to take out Y114.49 last week with the pair remaining

heavy as it trades below the daily bull channel base (Y113.54). Focus shifts to

the Y111.32-112.30 support region with bears needing a close below the 21-DMA to

add weight to their case. Daily studies correcting modestly O/B adds weight to

the bearish case. Bulls now look for a close above Y113.52 to ease bearish

pressure and above Y114.00 to return pressure to the key Y114.49 level.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.45 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y133.12 Hourly resistance Oct 26

*RES 3: Y132.71 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y132.30 High Oct 30

*RES 1: Y131.94 Hourly resistance Oct 30

*PRICE: Y131.64 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.45 Low Oct 30 

*SUP 2: Y131.27 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y130.59 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: Y130.24 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y134.59 resulted in a sell-off with the pair

currently flirting with the 55-DMA (Y131.74). Bears now look for a close below

Y131.45 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift immediate focus to Y130.24-59

and overall focus to Y127.50. The Bollinger base is the key concern for bears

with potential to limit follow through. Bulls now need a close above Y132.30 to

ease bearish pressure and above Y133.50 to shift focus back to Y133.99-134.59.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8718 Support Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8908 21-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8901 High Oct 27 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8848 High Oct 30 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8826 Hourly resistance Oct 31 & 31

*PRICE: Gbp0.8807 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8791 Low Oct 30 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8754 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8722 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8718 Low June 16

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy with Friday's bounce remaining capped ahead

of the 21-DMA. Bears remain focused on Gbp0.8718-53 where Sept lows, the 200-DMA

and 55-WMA are situated. The weekly bull channel base comes in around Gbp0.8830

this week with bears needing a weekly close below to confirm a break and add

weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8848 to ease bearish

pressure.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7720-0.7807 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7739 - Hourly resistance Oct 25

*RES 2: $0.7720 - Low Oct 11 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7694 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7677 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7650 - Hourly support Oct 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7622 - Low Oct 27 

*SUP 3: $0.7566 - Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: $0.7564 - Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: Bears dominated last week with the close below the 200-DMA seeing

focus shift to $0.7513-66 where the daily bear channel base is noted. The 55-WMA

comes in at $0.7632 and may slow the move. Overall bears look for a close below

$0.7312 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close above

$0.7720 to ease bearish pressure and above the bull channel top to pressure the

$0.7833-0.7909 region where key DMAs are situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 100-DMA Targets Deeper Correction

*RES 4: 95.312 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 2: 94.927 - Hourly resistance Oct 27 

*RES 1: 94.668 - Hourly resistance Oct 30

*PRICE: 94.568 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 94.306 - Hourly resistance Oct 26 now support

*SUP 2: 93.973 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 93.714 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.477 - Low Oct 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to capitalise on last week's test of the bull

channel top with the index looking a little heavy having closed back below

94.717. Bears now look for a close below the 100-DMA to shift focus to

92.724-93.714. Overall below 92.724 is needed to target 2017 lows. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 95.464 to shift focus to 96.205-97.045 where

the 200-DMA (96.815) is found.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.352 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 2.445 - Hourly support Oct 26 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.434 - Hourly resistance Oct 27 

*RES 2: 2.419 - Hourly support Oct 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.385 - Hourly support Oct 30 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.365 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.357 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.352 - High Oct 18 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.314 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.278 - Low Oct 16

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow-through in the latter half of last week

resulted in further losses Monday with bears now looking for a close below 2.352

to confirm a break of the bull channel base (2.379) & 21-DMA and shift focus

back to 2.245-2.278 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. The 200-DMA may support along

the way. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a

close above 2.419 to ease bearish pressure.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) $52.86-53.63 Support Region Key 

*RES 4: $55.27 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $55.02 - Monthly Apr 12 

*RES 2: $54.46 - High Oct 30 

*RES 1: $54.23 - Hourly resistance Oct 30

*PRICE: $54.05 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $53.63 - Hourly support Oct 27 

*SUP 2: $53.14 - Hourly support Oct 27a 

*SUP 3: $52.86 - High Oct 26 now support 

*SUP 4: $52.25 - Low Oct 27

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the $53.11 resistance last week provided

bulls hope and resulted in a break and aggressive rally that reconfirms the

bullish bias with focus on $55.02-27 where the daily bull channel top and Apr

highs are noted. Layers of support are following the contract higher with bears

still needing a close below $53.63 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below

$52.86 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($51.83).

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1283.7 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1296.9 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 2: $1283.7 - High Oct 24 

*RES 1: $1281.1 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1275.4 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1268.7 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1262.4 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1260.3 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1252.1 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA is less than ideal for bears who

are focused on $1243.8-1260.6 where the 200-DMA and channel base are situated.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $1283.7 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA, easing bearish pressure & initially correcting back to $1291.1-1296.9

where the 55-DMA is found. Bears now look for a close below the 200-DMA to add

weight to their case.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]