MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

8 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.1848 High Dec 6

*RES 2: $1.1814 High Dec 7

*RES 1: $1.1777 Hourly resistance Dec 8

*PRICE: $1.1763 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1760 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1713 Low Nov 21 

*SUP 3: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1621 Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel top ($1.2066) capped last week and now sees

the pair gaining traction below the channel base ($1.1875) and pressuring the

55-DMA. Bears still need a close below the 55-DMA to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and below $1.1690 to confirm initial focus on $1.1552 Nov lows.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.1848 to gain breathing room and

above $1.1884 to shift focus back to $1.1940-61.

     CABLE TECHS: Focus Back On 2017 Highs

*RES 4: $1.3833 Monthly Low Mar 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3656 2017 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: $1.3595 High Sept 22 

*RES 1: $1.3549 High Nov 30

*PRICE: $1.3491 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3432 Hourly resistance Dec 7 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3370 Hourly support Dec 7 

*SUP 3: $1.3324 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3318 Low Dec 7

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive recovery from the dip back to the 21-DMA Thursday

sees bulls back in control and focus having returned to the $1.3549-1.3656

region where 2017 highs are located. Bulls need a close above $1.3656 to shift

initial focus to $1.3833. Layers of support are building with bears now needing

a close below $1.3432 to ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to

$1.3318-24. The Bollinger top ($1.3570) is the key concern for bulls.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Focused On Y114.07-72

*RES 4: Y114.72 High Nov 6 

*RES 3: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 2: Y113.95 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: Y113.68 Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: Y113.33 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.94 Hourly resistance Dec 7 now support 

*SUP 2: Y112.57 Hourly support Dec 7 

*SUP 3: Y112.33 Hourly resistance Dec 7a now support 

*SUP 4: Y112.26 Daily Bull channel base (Off Nov 28 low)

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from the channel base confirms significance with the

pair having broken the Y113.33 resistance. Immediate Bullish focus shifts to

Y114.07-72 although the bull channel top may slow the move. Support layers are

building with bears needing a close below Y112.94 to gain breathing room and

below Y112.57 to sees the bull channel base pressured. Below the channel base

adds weight to the case for a correction back to Y110.83-111.66.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Retain Focus on 2017 High

*RES 4: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 3: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 2: Y134.05 Hourly support Dec 1a now resistance

*RES 1: Y133.74 Hourly support Dec 1 now resistance

*PRICE: Y133.35 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.98 Hourly resistance Dec 7 now support 

*SUP 2: Y132.58 Hourly support Dec 7 

*SUP 3: Y132.24 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 4: Y131.91 Daily Bull channel base (Aug 18 low)

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on a close below 21 & 55 (Y132.65-72)

DMAs with the pair bouncing from ahead of the bull channel base and 100-DMA

(Y131.69). Y30.59-131.91 support region is key. The Y132.98 support is key

today. Bears look for a close below this level to ease bullish pressure with

below 132.58 to return pressure to layers of support Y131.69-132.24 where the

bull channel base and 100-DMA (131.69) are located.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8717

*RES 4: Gbp0.8867 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8800 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8774 Hourly support Dec 7 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8759 Hourly resistance Dec 7

*PRICE: Gbp0.8721 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8717 Low June 16 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8649 June 8 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8487 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Rallies have remained capped ahead of the 55-DMA this week

resulting in pressure on key support. Bears need a close below Gbp0.8717 to

reconfirm a bearish bias initially targeting Gbp0.8599-0.8649 with overall focus

on Gbp0.8380-0.8515 where the bear channel base (Gbp0.8457) is noted. Bulls now

need a close above the 200-DMA to ease bearish pressure and hint at a correction

back to the 55-DMA.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Now On LT Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: $0.7598 - Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7569 - Hourly resistance Dec 7

*RES 2: $0.7555 - Hourly resistance Dec 7a

*RES 1: $0.7533 - Hourly resistance Dec 7

*PRICE: $0.7513 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7472 - LT Bull channel base (Jan 20 2016 low) 

*SUP 2: $0.7410 - Low June 5 

*SUP 3: $0.7365 - Low May 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7360 - Daily Bear channel base (Oct 6 low)

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy having broken below $0.7519 with a close

below confirming initial focus on the LT bull channel base. A close below the

channel base sees bears targeting $0.7326-65 where the MT bear channel base is

noted. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing. The $0.7569

resistance is now key. Bulls need a close above to ease bearish pressure with a

close above $0.7598 to pressure $0.7631-54 where the bear channel top is noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Initial Focus Shifts To 94.165

*RES 4: 94.650 - High Nov 10 

*RES 3: 94.501 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 94.165 - High Nov 21 

*RES 1: 93.962 - High Nov 22

*PRICE: 93.819 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.488 - High Dec 5 now support

*SUP 2: 93.171 - Low Dec 6

*SUP 3: 93.035 - Low Dec 5

*SUP 4: 92.952 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to key DMAs saw a close above the 55-DMA

(93.720) confirming an easing of bearish pressure and seeing immediate focus on

94.165. Bulls look for a close above this level to confirm focus on 95.167-464

where monthly highs are located. Bears now need a close below 93.488 to ease

bullish pressure and below 93.035 to shift pressure back to the 92.496-604

region where Nov lows are located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Remains Supported Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 3: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 2: 2.424 - High Dec 1 

*RES 1: 2.395 - High Dec 5

*PRICE: 2.369 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.351 - Hourly resistance Dec 7 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.303 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.283 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.273 - Monthly Low Oct 13

*COMMENTARY: The yield continues to find support ahead of the 200-DMA and key

2.273-2.303 support region where the 100-DMA and 21-WMA are also noted. The

close above Wednesday's high (2.363) eases bearish pressure and sees focus back

on the 2.437 resistance. Bulls need a close above this level to return pressure

to 2.477 Oct highs with a close above then targeting 2017 highs. Bears need a

close below 2.351 to gain breathing room.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (F18) $57.08 Resistance Remains Key 

*RES 4: $58.40 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 3: $58.02 - Hourly resistance Dec 4 

*RES 2: $57.57 - High Dec 6 

*RES 1: $57.08 - Low Dec 5 now resistance, 21-DMA

*PRICE: $56.65 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.28 - Hourly support Dec 7 

*SUP 2: $55.75 - Low Nov 20 

*SUP 3: $55.00 - Weekly Low Nov 14 

*SUP 4: $54.41 - Daily bull channel base (Aug 31 low)

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through and pressure on the 21-DMA took

its toll with a close below the key $56.75 support Wednesday seeing focus shift

to $53.96-55.00 where the bull channel base and 55-DMA are situated. Below

$53.06 is now needed to pressure 100 ($52.09) & 200 ($50.94) DMAs. The $57.08

resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above this level to ease bearish

pressure and shift focus back to $58.02-59.05.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1243.4 Confirms Focus on 2017 Low

*RES 4: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 3: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1260.1 - Monthly Low Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1251.0 - Low Aug 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $1249.2 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1243.4 - Low July 26 

*SUP 2: $1227.8 - Low July 17 

*SUP 3: $1214.0 - Low July 12 

*SUP 4: $1212.6 - Daily Bear channel base (Oct 6 Low)

*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped ahead of $1269.9 Wednesday the sharp

sell-off sees immediate pressure on $1243.4. Bears need a close below this level

to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Modestly O/S daily studies are now a

concern for bears. Bulls need a close above $1260.1 to ease bearish pressure and

above $1269.9 to shift focus back to $1278.1-1289.3 where DMAs and bear channel

top are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]