MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

20 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.1884

*RES 4: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 3: $1.1940 High Dec 1

*RES 2: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1862 High Dec 14

*PRICE: $1.1842 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1832 Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1805 Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 3: $1.1775 Low Dec 19 

*SUP 4: $1.1752 Daily Bull channel base (off Nov Low)

*COMMENTARY: Support continues to emerge on dips back towards the key $1.1690

level with the bull channel base confirming significance. Bears now need a close

below $1.1805 to gain breathing room and below $1.1690 to initially target

$1.1552 Nov lows. Topside follow through was lacking Monday with bulls needing a

close above $1.1884 to see focus return to the $1.1940-1.1961 region with above

$1.1961 to pressure 2017 highs.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3462

*RES 4: $1.3549 High Nov 30 

*RES 3: $1.3519 High Dec 8 

*RES 2: $1.3462 High Dec 14 

*RES 1: $1.3418 High Dec 18

*PRICE: $1.3391 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3372 Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3300 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 3: $1.3260 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3202 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in yet another bounce from around the $1.3300

level but lower daily highs on bounces are less than ideal. Bears now look for a

close below $1.3202 to confirm breaks of key DMAs and the bull channel base,

shifting focus to $1.2992-1.3037 where the 200-DMA ($1.3004) is located. Bulls

need a close above $1.3462 to gain breathing room and above $1.3549 to confirm

focus on tests of 2017 highs ($1.3656).

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Initial Focus Returns to Y113.74-114.07

*RES 4: Y114.61 LT TL off 2015 High 

*RES 3: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 2: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 1: Y113.30 Hourly resistance Dec 13a

*PRICE: Y112.94 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.85 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y112.37 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 4: Y111.60 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on dips with the marginal close

above the 55-DMA seeing bulls regain the upper hand and initial focus on

Y113.74-114.07. Bulls look for a close above Y114.72 to target Y115.62 and then

Y118.60 2017 highs. Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure

and return focus to Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted.

Bears look for a close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31).

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Returns To 2017 High

*RES 4: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 3: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 2: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 1: Y134.27 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y133.75 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 2: Y133.11 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Y132.54 Hourly support Dec 18 

*SUP 4: Y132.34 Daily Bull channel base (off Aug low)

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from tests of the daily bull channel base sees the

pair flirting with the Y133.88 resistance level with bulls now focused on

retests of 2017 highs. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls with

potential to limit follow through. A close above Y134.50 is now needed to

potentially target Y139.02-141.05. Support layers are accumulating with bears

now needing a close below Y133.11 to ease bullish pressure. 

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8940 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8886 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8869 55-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8841 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8818 Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Attempts to break higher remain capped ahead of the 55-DMA with

layers of resistance Gbp0.8869-8981 key. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8981 to

shift initial focus to Gbp0.9048-0.9107. The Gbp0.8759 level supported last week

with bears now needing a close below to return immediate pressure to Gbp0.8690.

Bears need a close below this level to reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on

tests of the bear channel base coming in around Gbp0.8415.

     AUSSIE TECHS: 200-DMA Capping For Now, $0.7623 Support Key

*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7730 - High Nov 2

*RES 2: $0.7692 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7670 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7656 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13 

*SUP 3: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7543 - Hourly support Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $0.7500 sees the pair pressuring 55 & 200-DMAs.

Layers of resistance remain $0.7670-0.7788 with bulls needing a close above the

100-DMA ($0.7788) to shift overall focus to 2017 highs. Key supports remain with

bears still needing a close below $0.7623 to ease immediate bullish pressure and

below $0.7580 to return initial focus to $0.7482-00 where the weekly bull

channel base is noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Key

*RES 4: 94.650 - High Nov 10 

*RES 3: 94.219 - High Dec 12 

*RES 2: 94.107 - High Dec 13 

*RES 1: 93.760 - High Dec 19

*PRICE: 93.425 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.352 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.282 - Low Dec 14

*SUP 3: 93.171 - Low Dec 6

*SUP 4: 93.035 - Low Dec 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on bounces from the 100-DMA

this week with the failure to take out 94.219 seeing pressure back on the

100-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to add weight to their case

with a close below 92.496 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 94.219 to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting

95.167-654 where the 200-DMA (94.538) is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.477 Targets 2017 High

*RES 4: 2.628 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 3: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 2: 2.536 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high) 

*RES 1: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27

*PRICE: 2.450 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.443 - Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 2: 2.423 - Hourly support Dec 19a 

*SUP 3: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.380 - High Dec 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base failed to produce a break lower with

the correction higher seeing immediate pressure back on 2.477 Oct highs. Bulls

need a close above this level to confirm overall focus on tests of 2017 highs.

Daily studies are well placed for further topside. Layers of support building

add support to the bullish case. Bears now look for a close below 2.423 to ease

immediate bullish pressure.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) $56.88 & $57.98 Levels Key Today 

*RES 4: $60.25 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 

*RES 2: $58.60 - High Dec 12 

*RES 1: $57.98 - Hourly resistance Dec 12

*PRICE: $57.75 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $57.20 - Low Dec 19 

*SUP 2: $56.88 - Low Dec 18 

*SUP 3: $56.48 - Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $55.88 - Low Dec 7

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip back towards $55.88 sees bulls

looking for a close above $57.98 to reconfirm initial focus on $58.60-58.99 with

a break targeting the 55-WMA and channel tops ($60.34-62.32). Layers of support

building add to bullish confidence with a close below $56.88 to ease renewed

bullish pressure. A close below $55.15 is now needed to confirm a break of the

55-DMA ($55.33) and initially target 52.70-54.07.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1249.2-1256.5 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1281.0 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 2: $1275.8 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1264.0 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1256.5 - Hourly support Dec 18 

*SUP 2: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13 

*SUP 3: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13 

*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a correction back

towards layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5 where DMAs and bear channel top are

noted. Layers of support have accumulated with bears needing a close below

$1256.5 to gain breathing room, below $1249.2 to shift immediate focus to

$1235.9 and overall focus to $1204.6-1214.0. Bulls need a close above $1269.9 to

add to confidence.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]