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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
21 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2167-1.2273 Support Region Key
*RES 4: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 3: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16
*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19
*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20
*PRICE: $1.2331 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2312 Daily Bull channel base off Jan 10 low
*SUP 2: $1.2273 Low Feb 14
*SUP 3: $1.2205 Low Feb 9
*SUP 4: $1.2167 Low Jan 17
*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel
top ($1.2649) off 2008 highs Friday sees immediate focus on the break of $1.2273
needed to confirm a break of the daily bull channel base. Overall focus is on
the break of $1.2167 to hint at a move back to $1.1915 and below $1.2089 to
confirm. Bulls need a close above $1.2461 to gain breathing room and above
$1.2515 to retain focus on the weekly bear channel top.
CABLE TECHS: Capped Ahead of 200-WMA, $1.3923 Support Key
*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26
*RES 3: $1.4162 Low Feb 1 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.4086 Hourly support Feb 15 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.4033 Hourly resistance Feb 19
*PRICE: $1.3986 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3965 Hourly support Feb 20
*SUP 2: $1.3923 High Feb 13 now support
*SUP 3: $1.3794 Low Feb 12
*SUP 4: $1.3763 Low Feb 9
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Feb lows so far ($1.3765) sees bulls looking for
a close above $1.4162 to confirm focus on 2018 highs and the key 200-WMA lurking
above. A weekly close above the 200-WMA was last seen in Q4 2014. A close above
would target $1.5019 2016 highs. The $1.3923 support remains key. Bears still
need a close below $1.3923 to initially target $1.3657-1.3765. Bulls need a
close above $1.4086 to gain breathing room.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Bear Channel Top
*RES 4: Y108.46 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance
*RES 2: Y108.38 21-DMA
*RES 1: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance
*PRICE: Y107.71 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y107.38 High Feb 20 now support
*SUP 2: Y107.01 Hourly support Feb 20
*SUP 3: Y106.42 Hourly support Feb 19
*SUP 4: Y106.10 Low Feb 19
*COMMENTARY: The Y105.50 support confirmed significance supporting on fresh 2018
lows. Bears need a close below Y105.50 to add weight to the case for a move to
Y99.08-101.15. Bulls look for a close above the daily bear channel top off 2018
highs to hint at a correction back to Y110.47 and above Y109.79 to confirm.
Correcting O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y106.03) remain concerns for
bears who now need a close below Y106.42 to retain initial focus on Y105.50.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 55-DMA To Shift Focus To 2018 High
*RES 4: Y134.40 55-DMA
*RES 3: Y134.18 21-DMA
*RES 2: Y133.78 High Feb 13
*RES 1: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance
*PRICE: Y132.81 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.51 High Feb 20 now support
*SUP 2: Y131.88 Low Feb 19
*SUP 3: Y131.51 2018 Low Feb 16
*SUP 4: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from ahead of the 200-DMA is gathering momentum with
layers of resistance Y133.78-134.40 seen as key. Bulls continue to look for a
close above the 55-DMA to end bearish hopes and confirm a shift in overall focus
to tests of 2018 highs (Y137.50). Correcting O/S studies are supporting the
bullish case. Bears now need a close below Y132.51 to gain breathing room and
below Y131.88 to reconfirm focus on Y130.50-131.51.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Below Gbp0.8776 Targets Gbp0.8647-85
*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12
*RES 3: Gbp0.8889 High Feb 16
*RES 2: Gbp0.8876 200-DMA
*RES 1: Gbp0.8837 Hourly resistance Feb 20
*PRICE: Gbp0.8818 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8685 2018 Low Jan 25
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the key Gbp0.8928 resistance has taken its toll
with recent hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA providing the impetus for a break of
21 (Gbp0.8818) & 55 (Gbp0.8832) DMAs. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.8776
to confirm focus on Gbp0.8647-85 where the bear channel base and 2018 low are
noted. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to return focus to Gbp0.8928.
AUSSIE TECHS: Breaks Key Support
*RES 4: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20
*RES 1: $0.7867 - Hourly support Feb 14 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7855 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7819 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7807 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 3: $0.7773 - 200-DMA
*SUP 4: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the break of the $0.7867 support that sees
initial focus back on $0.7229-0.7807 where 100 & 200-DMAs and the bull channel
base are noted. Below $0.7729 remains needed to end bullish hopes and shift
focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Daily studies are well placed for such a move. Bulls
now need a close above $0.7941 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7989 to
return focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018 highs are noted.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance
*RES 3: 91.004 - High Jan 18
*RES 2: 90.567 - High Feb 8
*RES 1: 90.124 - High Feb 14
*PRICE: 89.819 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support
*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19
*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16
*SUP 4: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support
*COMMENTARY: The close above the 55-DMA (89.578) eased bearish pressure with
above 91.751 needed to shift initial focus to 92.640 and overall focus to
94.219-95.149. Initial support is noted at 89.442 with bears needing a close
below to signal a false break of the 55-DMA and return focus to 87.202-627 where
the weekly bear channel base and Dec 2014 monthly low are situated. Weekly
studies are currently correcting from O/S.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) $60.57 Support Key Today
*RES 4: $64.96 - High Feb 5
*RES 3: $63.94 - High Feb 6
*RES 2: $62.71 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance
*PRICE: $61.21 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $60.77 - Low Feb 16
*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support
*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15
*SUP 4: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA is a concern for bulls who continue
to look for a close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs ($66.65). Bears
continue to look for a close below $60.57 to gain breathing room and below the
$57.88 support to confirm a break of the 100-DMA ($58.34) & target the 200-DMA
($53.70). Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to add support to their case.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Now On $1298.1-1311.6
*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016
*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16
*RES 2: $1351.3 - High Feb 19
*RES 1: $1335.5 - Hourly resistance Feb 20
*PRICE: $1326.0 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14
*SUP 2: $1311.6 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4
*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high
resulted in breaks of key supports with bears gaining confidence and focus on
$1298.1-1311.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears look for a close below
the 100-DMA to hint at a move targeting 2018 lows ($1236.5) with below the
200-DMA ($1285.4) to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1251.3 to return focus
to $1367.3-1374.9.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.