MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

23 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2372 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*PRICE: $1.2309 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2259 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2205 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $1.2167 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel

top ($1.2649) off 2008 highs Friday sees immediate focus now on the

$1.2092-1.2205 support region. Below $1.2092 is needed to end bullish hopes and

initially target $1.1915-75 where the 100-DMA is located. Layers of resistance

are weighing with bulls needing a close above $1.2372 to gain breathing room and

above $1.2461 to shift focus to 2018 highs.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.4086-1.4162 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4162 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4086 Hourly support Feb 15 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.4009 High Feb 21, 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3953 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3908 Hourly support Feb 22 

*SUP 2: $1.3858 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 3: $1.3794 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 4: $1.3763 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The failure to retake the $1.4162 level on the recovery from

$1.3763 sees the 21-DMA now capping and focus on $1.3631-1.3794 where the 55-DMA

($1.3749) is noted. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower having

corrected back to neutral levels. Bulls need a close above $1.4086 to gain

breathing room and above $1.4162 to confirm focus on 2018 highs and the key

200-WMA ($1.4344) lurking above.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Fails Ahead of Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.31 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.15 Hourly support Feb 22

*PRICE: Y106.89 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.42 Hourly support Feb 19 

*SUP 2: Y106.10 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 3: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows and Y105.50 is in trouble with the

failure ahead of Y108.03-42 leaving the pair offered. The close below Y107.01

sees bears retain initial focus on Y105.50 with a close below to reconfirm focus

on Y98.95-101.16. The Y108.03-42 resistance region remains key. Bulls need a

close above Y108.42 to hint at a correction back to Y110.47 and above Y109.78 to

confirm. Correcting O/S daily studies remain a concern for bears.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.05-134.39 Resistance Region Key Overall

*RES 4: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.78 Hourly resistance Feb 21

*RES 1: Y132.06 Hourly resistance Feb 22

*PRICE: Y131.55 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.27 2018 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 2: Y131.21 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y130.50 Low Sept 14

*COMMENTARY: Despite daily studies correcting from O/S adding support, bulls

failed to capitalise on Wednesday's gains with the pair again looking heavy

trading at 2018 & 3mth lows. The Y130.50-131.27 support region is now key. A

close below Y130.50 is needed to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and shift

initial focus to Y127.52-129.25. Bulls now need a close above Y133.05 to gain

breathing room and above the 55-DMA (Y134.35) to target 2018 highs (Y137.50).

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8776 & Gbp0.8928 Levels Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8889 High Feb 16 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8880 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8870 High Feb 20

*PRICE: Gbp0.8821 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8805 Lows Feb 20 & 21 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in rallies remaining capped ahead of the 200-DMA

with bulls needing a close above to return immediate focus to Gbp0.8928.

Previous attempts to challenge this level have lacked follow through. A close

above Gbp0.8928 is needed to target Gbp0.9013-48. While the 200-DMA caps bears

focus on the break of Gbp0.8776 needed to confirm focus on Gbp0.8645-85 where

the bear channel base and 2018 low are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7729-79 Support Region Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $0.7879 - Hourly resistance Feb 21

*PRICE: $0.7826 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7779 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7629 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The break of the $0.7867 support sees initial focus back on

$0.7229-0.7779 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted following the break of the bull

channel base ($0.7812), although follow through has been lacking. Below $0.7729

is needed to end bullish hopes and shift focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls look

for a close above $0.7879 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7989 to return

focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018 highs are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.442 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 91.004 - High Jan 18 

*RES 3: 90.567 - High Feb 8 

*RES 2: 90.235 - High Feb 22 

*RES 1: 89.944 - Hourly resistance Feb 22

*PRICE: 89.826 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 55-DMA (89.519) eased bearish pressure with

above 91.751 needed to shift initial focus to 92.640 and overall focus to

94.219-95.149. The lack of follow through is less than ideal with bears needing

a close below 89.442 to signal a false break of the 55-DMA, return initial focus

to 2018 lows and overall focus to 86.515-879 where the weekly bear channel base,

Nov 2014 monthly low LT rising weekly TL are situated.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Flirting With 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2915 - Monthly Highs Oct & Dec 2017

*RES 3: $1.2880 - 55-WMA

*RES 2: $1.2843 - Low Dec 18 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2749 - High Feb 22

*PRICE: $1.2718 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2677 - Low Feb 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2630 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.2592 - High Feb 19 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2528 - Low Feb 19

*COMMENTARY: The $1.2452-1.2528 support region where the 21-DMA is noted has

provided the base for a move that sees the pair flirting with the 200-DMA

($1.2704) having closed above the MT falling TL ($1.2660). Bulls need a close

above $1.2749 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA & shift focus to $1.2915 Oct &

Dec 2017 highs. Bears look for a close below $1.2592 to gain breathing room and

below $1.2452 to return initial focus to 2018 lows ($1.2255).

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Above $63.93 To Target $66.39-65 

*RES 4: $66.65 - 2018 High Jan 22 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.39 - High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 1: $63.94 - High Feb 6

*PRICE: $62.79 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $62.12 - Hourly resistance Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 2: $60.76 - Low Feb 22 

*SUP 3: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $59.60 - Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The $60.57 support confirmed significance with the bounce from

ahead seeing the contract trading above the 21-DMA ($62.48). Bulls look for a

close above $63.93 to confirm a shift in focus to $66.39-65 where 2018 highs are

situated. Support layers are following J18 higher with bears now needing a close

below $62.12 to gain breathing room and below $60.57 to shift focus back to

$57.90-58.58 where the 100-DMA is noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Close Above 21-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 1: $1335.9 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1328.6 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1314.8 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high

resulted in breaks of key supports with bears focused on $1299.2-1314.8 where 55

& 100-DMAs are situated. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a

move targeting 2018 lows ($1236.5) with below the 200-DMA ($1286.3) to confirm.

Bulls need a close above $1251.3 to return focus to $1367.3-1374.9.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]