MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

27 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2372-1.2461 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 2: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $1.2360 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2323 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2259 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2205 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $1.2167 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel

top ($1.2652) off 2008 highs sees immediate focus on the $1.2092-1.2205 support

region. Below $1.2092 is needed to end bullish hopes and initially target

$1.1915-78 where the 100-DMA is located. Layers of resistance are weighing with

bulls needing a close above $1.2372 to gain breathing room and above $1.2461 to

shift focus to 2018 highs.

     CABLE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Remains Absent

*RES 4: $1.4150 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4086 Hourly support Feb 15 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1.3974 Hourly resistance Feb 27

*PRICE: $1.3959 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3903 Hourly support Feb 22 

*SUP 2: $1.3858 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 3: $1.3794 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 4: $1.3770 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the lack of follow through on the pop above

the 21-DMA ($1.3993) with the pair looking a little heavy as a result. In saying

that, bears continue to look for a close below $1.3858 to reconfirm initial

focus on $1.3720-70 where the 55-DMA is located. Layers of resistance have

accumulated and add to bearish confidence. Bulls continue to look for a close

above $1.4150 to shift focus back to $1.4286-1.4349.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.03-42 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.00 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y107.28 High Feb 26

*PRICE: Y106.95 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.36 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 2: Y106.10 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 3: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows and Y105.50 stalled ahead of Y108.03-42

and retains focus on the Y105.50 support. Bears continue to look for a close

below Y105.50 to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16. The Y108.03-42 resistance

region remains key. Bulls need a close above Y108.42 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and bear channel top, hinting at a correction to Y110.47 and above

Y109.78 to confirm. Correcting O/S daily studies remain a concern for bears.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 55-DMA To Target 2018 Highs

*RES 4: Y133.59 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 2: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 1: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance

*PRICE: Y131.79 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.60 Hourly support Feb 26 

*SUP 2: Y130.91 2018 Low Feb 23 

*SUP 3: Y130.59 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with the pair having

failed so far to gain traction below the 200-DMA (Y131.26). Bears now look for a

close below Y130.59 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and shift initial focus to

Y127.54-129.34 where monthly lows are noted. Layers of resistance remain

Y132.24-134.28 where key DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close

above the 55-DMA to target 2018 highs (Y137.50).

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8928

*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8889 Bear Channel top off Aug high 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8882 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8836 55-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8827 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8806 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8714 Low Feb 1

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on the marginal break of the Gbp0.8776

support with immediate pressure having returned to the 55-DMA. Overall the

Gbp0.8928 resistance remains key. A close above Gbp0.8928 is needed to target

Gbp0.9013-48. While the 200-DMA caps bears retain the advantage but now need a

close below to confirm focus on Gbp0.8617-85 where the 100-WMA and 2018 low are

noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7894-0.7989 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $0.7894 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7844 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7779 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7629 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The break of $0.7867 last week shifted initial focus on

$0.7229-0.7779 where 100 & 200-DMAs are located although follow through has been

lacking. Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7729 to end bullish hopes

and shift focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to

ease bearish pressure and above $0.7989 to return focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018

highs and May 2015 monthly highs are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.442 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.004 - High Jan 18 

*RES 2: 90.567 - High Feb 8 

*RES 1: 90.235 - High Feb 22

*PRICE: 89.815 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 21-DMA (89.569) last week eased bearish

pressure with above 91.751 needed to shift initial focus to 92.640 and overall

focus to 94.219-95.149. Bears look for a close below 89.442 to signal a false

break of the 21-DMA, return initial focus to 2018 lows and overall focus to

86.515-878 where the weekly bear channel base, Nov 2014 monthly low LT rising

weekly TL are situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Supported Around 21-DMA

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.904 - Low Feb 22 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.877 - Hourly resistance Feb 23

*PRICE: 2.864 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.827 - Hourly breakout level Feb 14 

*SUP 2: 2.808 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs is less than

ideal for bulls who are focused on the 3.041 2014 high. A close above 3.041 is

needed to initially focus on 3.073-223 where July 2011 monthly highs are

situated. Bulls take comfort in Monday's bounce with above 2.904 needed to

reconfirm focus on 3.041. Bears need a close below 2.758 to target 2.609-648

with the 55-DMA noted at 2.614.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Remains Supported On Dips 

*RES 4: $66.65 - 2018 High Jan 22 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.39 - High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 1: $64.24 - High Feb 26

*PRICE: $63.93 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $63.06 - Low Feb 26 

*SUP 2: $62.12 - Hourly resistance Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 3: $60.76 - Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The $60.57 support confirmed significance with the bounce from

ahead seeing the contract gain traction above the 21-DMA ($62.49). Support

continues to emerge on dips with bulls now focused on $64.96-66.65 where 2018

highs are noted. Bears now need a close below $63.06 to ease bullish pressure

and below $60.57 to shift focus back to $57.90-58.52 where the 100-DMA ($58.52)

is noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Above $1351.3 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 1: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance

*PRICE: $1333.0 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1325.5 - Low Feb 23 

*SUP 2: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 3: $1316.6 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 21-DMA ($1334.0) and rejection

ahead of the $1344.7-1351.3 region is less than ideal for bulls who need a close

above $1251.3 to target $1367.3-1374.9. Bears now need a close below Friday's

$1325.5 low to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to confirm initial focus

on $1299.6-1305.9 where the 100-DMA is noted. Below the 200-DMA ($1285.9) then

targets Dec lows ($1235.9).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]