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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
1 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressuring 55-DMA
*RES 4: $1.2435 High Feb 19
*RES 3: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20
*RES 2: $1.2336 21-DMA
*RES 1: $1.2259 Low Feb 22 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.2193 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2176 55-DMA
*SUP 2: $1.2167 Low Jan 17
*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support
*SUP 4: $1.2018 High Jan 10 now support
*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus is now on the $1.2092-1.2176 support region
following the recent topside failures ahead of $1.2372. Below $1.2092 is needed
to end bullish hopes and initially target $1.1915-91 where the 100-DMA is
located. Bulls initially look for a close above $1.2259 to gain breathing room.
Overall a close above $1.2372 confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs, and above $1.2461
is needed to shift focus to 2018 highs.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3857 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: $1.3997 High Feb 27
*RES 3: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27
*RES 2: $1.3857 Low Feb 22 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.3773 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.3750 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3724 Low Jan 15
*SUP 2: $1.3657 Monthly High Sept 20 now support
*SUP 3: $1.3613 High Jan 3 now support
*SUP 4: $1.3458 2018 Low Jan 11
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on pops above the 21-DMA ($1.3951) have
resulted in a sell-off with bearish focus now on the $1.3613-1.3724 support
region. Bears need a close below $1.3613 to shift focus to $1.3027 Oct monthly
lows. Layers of resistance are building with bulls now needing a close above
$1.3857 to gain breathing room and above $1.3940 to shift focus back to $1.4150.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Overall Focus Remains On Y98.95-101.16
*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 3: Y107.76 21-DMA
*RES 2: Y107.68 High Feb 27
*RES 1: Y106.93 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance
*PRICE: Y106.78 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y106.36 Low Feb 26
*SUP 2: Y106.10 Low Feb 19
*SUP 3: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support
*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the key Y108.03-42 resistance region
has left the pair looking heavy. Bears continue to look for a close below
Y106.36 to add weight to the case for a retest of 2018 lows. A close below
Y105.50 remains needed to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16. Resistance layers
are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y108.42 to hint at a
correction to Y110.47 and above Y109.78 to confirm.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y130.59 Targets Y125.80-127.54
*RES 4: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance
*RES 3: Y131.70 Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance
*RES 2: Y131.45 Hourly support Feb 28a now resistance
*RES 1: Y130.57 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance
*PRICE: Y130.20 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.43 200-WMA
*SUP 2: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6
*SUP 3: Y128.50 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 6mth lows leave the pair looking heavy with overall
focus shifting to Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 & 200-WMAs which may
support along the way. Weekly studies have room to move before O/S is an issue.
Layers of resistance are following the pair lower with bulls now needing a close
above Y131.15 to gain breathing room and above Y132.24 to target a correction
back to Y132.94-134.23 where key DMAs are situated.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8928
*RES 4: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12
*RES 3: Gbp0.8889 High Feb 16
*RES 2: Gbp0.8883 200-DMA
*RES 1: Gbp0.8870 High Feb 20
*PRICE: Gbp0.8867 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8855 Hourly support Feb 28
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8824 Hourly support Feb 28a
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8811 Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26
*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to layers of resistance Gbp0.8870-0.8928
where the 200-DMA and a bear channel top off Aug highs are located. Overall the
Gbp0.8928 resistance remains key. A close above Gbp0.8928 is needed to target
Gbp0.9013-48. While the 200-DMA caps bears retain the advantage but now need a
close below Gbp0.8811 to gain breathing room and below Gbp0.8771 to confirm
focus on Gbp0.8617-85 where the 100-WMA and 2018 low are noted.
AUSSIE TECHS: Key Levels Falling By The Wayside
*RES 4: $0.7868 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7819 - High Feb 28
*RES 2: $0.7784 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7752 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7721 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14
*SUP 3: $0.7611 - Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: Key supports continue to crumble following the close below the
200-DMA with bears needing a close below $0.7729 to confirm focus on tests of
$0.7500 Dec lows. The Bollinger base is noted at $0.7721 and is the key concern
for bears with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance
accumulating add weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above $0.7819 to
ease bearish pressure and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 90.080 Support Key Today
*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12
*RES 3: 92.640 - 2018 High Jan 9
*RES 2: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance
*RES 1: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance
*PRICE: 90.717 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 90.235 - High Feb 21 now support
*SUP 2: 90.080 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 now support
*SUP 3: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support
*SUP 4: 88.960 - Low Feb 19
*COMMENTARY: The 89.442 support confirmed significance this week with the dip
Monday finding support ahead of this level and seeing immediate focus now on the
91.011-92.640 resistance region. Bulls still need a close above 92.640 to end
bearish hopes and shift focus to 94.076-95.149. Support layers building adds to
bullish confidence. Bears continue to look for a close below 98.080 to gain
breathing room.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 2.786 Targets 2.609-648
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2
*RES 3: 2.989 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21
*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27
*PRICE: 2.866 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.854 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 2.831 - Low Feb 26
*SUP 3: 2.820 - Daily Bull channel base (Off 2017 low)
*SUP 4: 2.786 - Low Feb 9
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less
than ideal for bulls who are focused on the 3.041 2014 high. A close above 3.041
is needed to initially focus on 3.073-223 where July 2011 monthly highs are
situated. The 21-DMA is currently supporting with the 2.786-854 support region
key. Bears now look for a close below 2.786 to end bullish hopes and shift focus
back to 2.609-648 where the 55-DMA (2.642) is noted.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Immediate Focus On $60.57
*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26
*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27
*RES 2: $61.95 - Hourly resistance Feb 28
*RES 1: $61.75 - Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance
*PRICE: $61.58 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $60.76 - Low Feb 22
*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support
*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15
*SUP 4: $59.02 - Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: Failure to better Monday's high and the hesitation ahead of $64.96
combined with O/B studies continues to weigh with bearish focus currently on the
close below $60.57 needed to shift focus back to $57.90-58.95 where the 100-DMA
and bull channel base are noted. Bulls now need a close above $63.58 to gain
breathing room and above $64.96 to target $66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Initial Focus Shifts To 100-DMA
*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance
*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26
*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance
*RES 1: $1323.9 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance
*PRICE: $1315.7 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1314.0 - Low Feb 27
*SUP 2: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4
*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*SUP 4: $1300.4 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 21-DMA ($1332.7) and rejection
ahead of the $1344.7-1351.3 region took its toll with a sell-off and dips below
the 55-DMA ($1319.8) that shifts focus to the 100-DMA. Bears need a close below
the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to Dec lows ($1235.9) with below the 200-DMA
($1287.4) to confirm. Layers of resistance are building with bulls needing a
close above $1330.0 to gain breathing room.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.