MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

26 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

     Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical

Analysis Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Below 200-DMA Targets Nov Low

*RES 4: $1.2399 Daily Bear channel top off Feb high

*RES 3: $1.2359 Hourly resistance Apr 19

*RES 2: $1.2312 Hourly support Apr 20 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2248 Low Apr 20 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2177 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2031 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: $1.2007 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Focus is on $1.2153 with a close below needed to initially target

$1.2007-92 where the bear channel base and 200-DMA are noted. Bears now need a

close below the 200-DMA to then target $1.1914 with overall focus shifting to

tests of $1.1552 Nov lows. Bulls need a close above $1.2248 to gain breathing

room and above $1.2413 to confirm a break of the bear channel top and shift

focus back to $1.2476-1.2555.

     CABLE TECHS: 21-WMA & 100-DMA Supports Key

*RES 4: $1.4093 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.4031 High Apr 23 

*RES 2: $1.4009 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3996 High Apr 25

*PRICE: $1.3944 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3916 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 2: $1.3873 Low Mar 13 

*SUP 3: $1.3864 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3861 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined after the lack of topside follow through on 2018 &

nearly 2yr highs last week. Immediate focus is now on $1.3851-73 where the

100-DMA & 21-WMA ($1.3851) are located. Below these MAs then targets

$1.3656-1.3710 where the weekly bull channel base off Mar lows is noted. Bulls

still need a close above $1.4031 to gain breathing room and above $1.4171 to

hint at a move back to 2018 highs with above $1.4280 to confirm.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y108.97

*RES 4: Y110.26 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y110.04 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: Y109.79 High Feb 8 

*RES 1: Y109.46 100-WMA

*PRICE: Y109.31 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.97 Hourly support Apr 25 

*SUP 2: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 

*SUP 3: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on WMAs & DMAs Y109.45-110.47. A close

above Y110.47 is needed to confirm breaks and target 2018 highs. Initial support

is noted at Y108.97 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and

below Y108.54 to shift focus back to Y107.85. A close below Y107.85 is then

needed to target Y106.57-107.34 where the 21 (Y107.34) & 55 (Y106.84) DMAs are

situated. The Bollinger top (Y109.24) remains the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above Y134.16 To Target 2018 High

*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.65 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y133.48 High Apr 24

*PRICE: Y133.13 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.59 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 2: Y132.02 Low Apr 20 

*SUP 3: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 

*SUP 4: Y131.63 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 100-DMA (Y133.04) & 21-WMA (Y132.97) finally took

its toll with a break higher Tuesday. In saying that, follow through has been

lacking courtesy of the Bollinger top with correcting O/B daily studies and

momentum divergence a concern for bulls. Bears need a close below Y132.59 to see

focus return to Y131.63-132.02 where the 21 (Y131.99) & 55-DMA are found. Bulls

now look for a close above Y134.16 to confirm focus on 2018 highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 21-DMA & 55-WMA Levels Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8822 55-WMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8810 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8793 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8754 High Apr 25

*PRICE: Gbp0.8731 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8723 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8686 Low Apr 19 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8641 Hourly support Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the Gbp0.8795-0.8823 resistance region where

the 55 & 100-DMAs and 55-WMA are noted leaves the pair looking a little heavy

and focus back on the 21-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 21-DMA to ease

bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8664 to return focus to Gbp0.8380-0.8515. Bulls

still need a close above the 55-WMA to hint at a move back to Gbp0.8874-0.8904

with the 200-DMA at Gbp0.8881.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7640

*RES 4: $0.7702 - Hourly resistance Apr 20

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*PRICE: $0.7575 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7549 - Low Apr 25 

*SUP 2: $0.7498 - Monthly Low Dec 8 

*SUP 3: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on $0.7498 Dec lows. O/S daily studies and

the Bolli base ($0.7565) are concerns. Bears look for a close below $0.7498 to

confirm traction below the LT bull channel base and initially target $0.7326 May

2017 lows. Layers of resistance accumulating add weight to the bearish case with

bulls needing a close above $0.7640 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7735

to shift focus back to $0.7808-42 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 90.483 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 92.010 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: 91.958 - Weekly Bear channel top off 2017 high 

*RES 2: 91.882 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance

*PRICE: 91.135 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 90.935 - Hourly support Apr 25

*SUP 2: 90.682 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 90.618 - Hourly support Apr 23

*SUP 4: 90.483 - Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: The index remains bid with the close above 91.076 confirming

immediate focus on 91.751-92.010 where channel tops and the 200-DMA are located.

Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to then target 92.625-997. Layers of

support are adding to bullish confidence. Bears now need a close below 90.483 to

confirm a break of the 100-DMA and shift initial focus back to 89.930-90.122

where 21 & 55-DMAs are located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of 2014 High

*RES 4: 3.168 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 1: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25

*PRICE: 3.030 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 3.007 - Hourly support Apr 25 

*SUP 2: 2.957 - Low Apr 24 

*SUP 3: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.904 - Low Apr 20

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on 3.041-073. The Bollinger top (3.029) & O/B

studies remain concerns for bulls. Initial support is noted at 3.007. Bears need

a close below to gain breathing room and target a correction back to 2.925-957

and below 2.925 to shift initial focus back to 2.814-876 where 21 (2.850) & 55

(2.858) DMAs are situated. Bulls look for a close above 3.073 to shift focus

3.168-223 where the weekly bull channel top is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Finding Support On Dips

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $70.94 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $70.22 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19

*PRICE: $68.40 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $67.11 - Low Apr 25 

*SUP 2: $66.54 - Low Apr 18 

*SUP 3: $65.96 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $65.09 - Low Apr 11

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of 2018 highs Tuesday is a concern for bulls

when combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the

Bollinger top ($70.22). Bears now look for a close below $67.11 to gain

breathing room and hint at a correction back to $65.09-96 where the 21-DMA is

found. Bulls need a close above $69.55 to reconfirm focus on $70.94-73.25 where

the MT bull channel top is noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1353.7 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1339.3 - Hourly resistance Apr 20 

*RES 2: $1335.5 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1332.6 - High Apr 24

*PRICE: $1323.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1319.5 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1306.9 - Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $1302.9 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Monthly Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 100-DMA with bears needing a close

below to shift initial focus back to $1291.2-1302.9 where the 55-WMA ($1291.2),

200-DMA & March low ($1302.5) are located. Initial resistance is now noted at

$1332.6 but bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and

shift initial focus back to $1353.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]