MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

24 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1765

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 1: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*PRICE: $1.1684 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1678 High July 19 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1625 Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 3: $1.1572 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The $1.1765 resistance reconfirmed significance with it capping to

start the new week. Bulls need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above

the 55-DMA ($1.1704) and ease bearish pressure. Above the 55-WMA ($1.1933)

remains needed to shift initial focus to $1.1951-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1951) &

200 ($1.1979) DMAs are found. Bears now need a close below $1.1678 to gain

breathing room and below $1.1625 to return focus to 2018 lows.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3362 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.3321 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 2: $1.3293 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3173 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3094 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3080 Low July 23 

*SUP 2: $1.3050 Hourly resistance July 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2992 Low July 20 

*SUP 4: $1.2955 2018 Low July 19

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key $1.2995 support last week lacked follow

through with bulls taking comfort in the recovery Friday. Bulls now look for a

close above $1.3203 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and an easing of bearish

pressure. The $1.3362 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above this

level to confirm traction above the 55-DMA ($1.3293) and shift initial focus to

$1.3446. The $1.3050 support is key today. Bears need a close below to ease

pressure on the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to $1.2955 2018 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.95-110.74 Support Region Now Key

*RES 4: Y113.26 200-WMA 

*RES 3: Y112.69 Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.90 Hourly resistance July 20 

*RES 1: Y111.54 High July 23

*PRICE: Y111.29 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.74 Low July 23 

*SUP 2: Y110.46 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y110.11 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.95 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The break below the 21-DMA (Y111.31) and daily bull channel base

off 2018 lows lacked follow through with the pair bouncing from just below

Y110.75. Bears now need a close below Y110.74 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA

and bull channel base and add weight to the case for a test of the Y109.95

support. Below Y109.95 then pressures Y108.96-109.01 where the 100-DMA is noted.

Bulls look for a close above Y111.54 to gain breathing room and above Y111.90 to

return focus to Y113.26 where the 200-WMA is found.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.87 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.49 Hourly resistance July 18

*RES 2: Y131.20 High July 20

*RES 1: Y130.46 Hourly resistance July 23

*PRICE: Y130.05 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.93 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.30 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: Y127.49 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y131.54) last

week. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of

the 55-WMA and target Y133.48-135.58 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

Correcting O/B daily studies are the key concern for bulls and continue to

weigh. The break of Y129.83 has so far lacked follow through with bears needing

a close below to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA (Y129.30)

to confirm. Bulls now need a close above Y131.20 to shift focus back to the

200-DMA.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8872 

*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 High Nov 15 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8940 Hourly resistance July 20

*PRICE: Gbp0.8929 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8896 Hourly support July 18 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8872 Low July 18 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8859 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support July 16

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2018 highs is less than ideal for bulls who are

looking for a close above 2018 highs to initially target Gbp0.9043 Sept 14

highs. The Bollinger top (Gbp0.8940) remains an issue and limits follow through.

The Gbp0.8872 support is key this week. Bears need a close below Gbp0.8872 to

shift focus back to Gbp0.8779-0.8819 where the 200-DMA is noted with below the

21-DMA to add weight to their case.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7484 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7442 - High July 16

*PRICE: $0.7379 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7326 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the failure to make fresh 2018 lows and the

bounce to end last week that returned pressure to the $0.7442-84 resistance

region. Bulls now need a close above $0.7484 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

($0.7475) and hint at a move back to $0.7570-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7570) & 200

($0.7671) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming. The failure ahead of

$0.7442 leaves the pair looking a little offered with bears currently focused on

2018 lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 96.652 - 2018 High July 19 

*RES 3: 95.520 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.280 - High July 20 

*RES 1: 94.933 - Low July 19 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.665 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.210 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.713 - Low July 9

*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 4: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 13mth highs lacked follow through courtesy of the

Bollinger top Thursday which sees pressure back on the 55-DMA. Bears now look

for a close below 93.713 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and bull channel

base, initial focus on 92.837-93.193, and hint at a move back to 100 (92.509) &

200 (92.317) DMAs. Bulls continue to look for a close above 94.933 to gain

breathing room and above the 100-WMA (95.520) to target 96.617.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Returns To 3.014-3.084

*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 3: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 2: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 1: 2.967 - High July 23

*PRICE: 2.956 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.950 - High June 21 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.923 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.902 - Hourly resistance July 23 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.880 - Hourly support July 20

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low resulted in a close above the key

2.950 resistance confirming traction above the 55-DMA. Bullish focus now shifts

to the 3.014-084 resistance region with a close above 3.084 to confirm initial

focus on 3.128-223 where 2018 highs are noted. Bears now need a close below the

55-DMA to gain breathing room and below 2.880 to shift focus back to 2.807.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: $70.60 - High July 13 

*RES 2: $69.72 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $68.29 - Hourly support July 23 now resistance

*PRICE: $67.67 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $67.52 - Hourly support July 19 

*SUP 2: $67.21 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $66.30 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $65.89 - High June 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA and the

$65.89 support. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus

back to $70.60-71.13. Daily studies correcting from O/S add support to the

bullish case. While the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on the $65.89-66.12

supports with a close below $67.21 now needed to buy bears breathing room.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1243.3 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1234.1 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $1221.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1219.6 - Hourly resistance July 20 now support 

*SUP 2: $1211.1 - 2018 Low July 19 

*SUP 3: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017 

*SUP 4: $1194.5 - Monthly Low Mar 10 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the topside failure around the 200-WMA to

start the new week with gold remaining offered as a result. Bulls still need a

close above $1236.6 to gain breathing room and above $1260.2 to return initial

focus to $1270.5-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted. Bears remain focused on

$1204.6 while $1236.6 caps. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base ($1218.3)

remain concerns for bears with potential to limit follow through.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]