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MNI Fed Balance Sheet Tracker: May 17, 2024

Now that QT has run for 2 years with around $1.7T in runoff, the Fed is looking to stick the landing.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Following the Fed's QT taper announcement at the May FOMC meeting, the medium-term outlook for the balance sheet is a little clearer.
  • The ultimate end-state of the balance sheet is not entirely clear though: it appears that the Fed will be feeling its way through the latter stages of the QT process.
  • We’ve taken the opportunity to update our Fed Balance Sheet Tracker to introduce our “Reserves Scarcity Monitor” to identify signals that the reserves regime is moving into “ample” territory, from the current "abundant" levels, as QT proceeds.

    For full PDF analysis:

    FedBalanceSheet-May-2024.pdf




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    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

    • Following the Fed's QT taper announcement at the May FOMC meeting, the medium-term outlook for the balance sheet is a little clearer.
    • The ultimate end-state of the balance sheet is not entirely clear though: it appears that the Fed will be feeling its way through the latter stages of the QT process.
    • We’ve taken the opportunity to update our Fed Balance Sheet Tracker to introduce our “Reserves Scarcity Monitor” to identify signals that the reserves regime is moving into “ample” territory, from the current "abundant" levels, as QT proceeds.

      For full PDF analysis:

      FedBalanceSheet-May-2024.pdf