MNI:US May Job Growth Seen Slowing Further- St Louis Fed Model

U.S. employers added between 19,000 and 865,000 jobs in May, according to a St. Louis Fed model using high frequency data from scheduling software companies Kronos and Homebase, far lower than the 618,000 to 1.3 million range forecast last month.

Job gains through May are likely better represented by the lower end of the Fed model's forecast. Data from Homebase, which reflects the forecast's upper end, has a larger concentration of small businesses, particularly in retail and leisure and hospitality, St. Louis Fed economist Max Dvorkin told MNI in an email.

"It may be that these sectors are leading in the employment gains, but that should not be extrapolated to the whole economy," he said. Payroll employment rose by just 266,000 in April. Sources have told MNI the Fed may need to bring the job market just halfway back before saying it's made substantial progress.