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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Fed Preview - Mar 2023: Balancing Evolving Risks
MNI Fed Preview - Mar 2023: Balancing Evolving Risks
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- MNI expects the FOMC to hike the Funds rate by 25bp to 4.75-5.00% at the March meeting, with markets implying a 60% chance of a quarter-point raise and 40% of a pause.
- This will come alongside a new Dot Plot that raises the 2023 median rate expectation by 25bp to 5.4%, and tweak of the Statement's forward guidance to indicate that the terminal rate is nearing.
- Of the 28 analyst previews of the March FOMC decision whose previews MNI have seen, 23 expect a 25bp hike at the February FOMC. 4 see a pause, and 1 sees a cut.
- Recent banking sector volatility will probably result in a tightening of financial conditions that warrants a lower terminal Fed funds rate than may have been foreseen just a couple of weeks ago.
- That said, Powell’s task in the press conference will be to acknowledge risks stemming from banking sector uncertainty while emphasizing that the Fed’s primary focus is the fight against well-above-target inflation.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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