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MNI: Forecasters Lift US Growth, Hiring Estimates -Philly Fed


Analysts lifted their expectations for U.S. real GDP growth and hiring through next year compared to three months ago, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey released Monday, while inflation projections were little changed.

The Philly Fed’s quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters showed growth is expected to slow from 4.9% in the third quarter to 1.3% in the fourth and 0.8% in the first quarter of 2024. On an annual-average basis, GDP is expected to slow to 1.7% next year from 2.4% this year, according to the 34 analysts surveyed. These annual projections are 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than the estimates in the previous survey.

The forecasters see higher job gains for 2023 and 2024 but little change in the unemployment rate. The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment imply job gains at a monthly rate of 296,500 in 2023 and 120,000 in 2024, up from the previous estimate of 288,600 and 94,800.

Expectations for inflation were little changed with the median forecaster seeing 2.7% core PCE by the end of this year and 2.2% next year. The forecasters raised their probability estimates for negative growth for 2024, now predicting a near-40% chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the four quarters in 2024.

Source: Philadelphia Fed

MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 |
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 |

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