MNI: GERMAN DATA: Flash CPI & HICP (Jul 2019)........>

MNI: GERMAN DATA: Flash CPI & HICP (Jul 2019) Preview - 13:00 BST

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- CPI: Bbg: 0.3% m/m, 1.5% y/y; Prev (Jun): 0.3% m/m, 1.6% y/y

- HICP: Bbg: 0.3% m/m, 1.2% y/y; Prev (Jun): 0.3% m/m, 1.5% y/y

- MNI's analysis of state-level CPI data from the five states that have

published so far (just over 53% of national total) suggests pan-German inflation

will come in stronger than market expectations...

- ... with our estimate pointing to CPI growth of 0.4 % m/m & 1.7% y/y in Jul

- The core rate may have picked up on the month, but likely remains at a feeble

level

- All in all, while headline inflation may have accelerated slightly at the

start of Q3, we do not expect this to mark the start of a sustained upward trend

- Indeed, falling y/y energy inflation should see the headline HICP & CPI rates

decline in the coming months...

- ... while core inflation remains subdued amid the soft economic backdrop

- The Jul PMI survey shows both input & output price infl down to near 3-yr lows