MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Friday is one for GDP releases with France, UK, Spain and

the USA all coming out with their first estimates.

     It may be the final day of the week but the early bird catches the worm as

France start us off a little earlier than usual, with the data at 0530GMT with

prior q/q and y/y GDP of 0.7% and 2.5% respectively. This q/q however is

expected by analysts to be more subdued with q/q growth at 0.4%. 

     Slightly after this at 0545GMT is ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch

chairing panel "Priorities for further integrating EU post-trading" in Sofia,

Bulgaria. 

     Moving to Germany and the ILO employment data, and import/export prices are

released at 0600GMT. The ILO employment previously stood at 44. Import and

export price index previously had y/y growth of -0.6% and 0.5% respectively. 

     Next up is ECB speeches in Vienna, Austria and Sofia, Bulgaria at 0630GMT

and 0645GMT respectively. Vienna sees ECB Gov. Council member Ewald Nowotny

speak and Sofia sees Sabine Lautenschlaeger chairing the panel on "Success

factors and expected benefits of an agreement on EDIS and the backstop to the

SRF".

     France come into the fold next with a triple release also at 0645GMT with

their consumer spending, HICP and PPI. Quarterly consumer spending in France has

seen a nice uptrend which saw prior m/m growth of 2.4% and y/y growth of 1.9%.

HICP grew in March at a m/m and y/y growth rate of 1.1% and 1.7% respectively.

PPI grew m/m and y/y at 0.1% and 1.5% respectively in March. 

     Spain follow up with a triple release of their own at 0700GMT. This

includes their flash GDP estimate, flash HICP and retail sales. Quarter on

quarter GDP growth is expected to remain unchanged from the Q4 at 0.7%, with Q4

y/y GDP growth at 3.1%. Prior HICP on a m/m and y/y basis stood at 1.2% and 1.3%

for March. Retail sales y/y previously grew at 1.9%. 

     After all that data, have a little cool off but be back for 0745GMT as

Germany release their GLO Labour Market statistics. The unemployment rate is

pencilled in by analysts to improve slightly from 5.4% to 5.3%. 

     At 0800GMT, two speeches come from Sofia and Berne, Switzerland. Sofia sees

a speech from ECB member Yves Mersch Exchange of views at "Forthcoming unwinding

QE: expected impacts". In Berne, SNB Gov. Thomas Jordan speech at the SNB's

General Meeting of Shareholders.

     The UK release their first estimate of first quarter GDP and index of

services at 0830GMT. The poor weather in the UK is likely to impact the first

quarter figures with analysts anticipating a drop in both the q/q and y/y growth

rate from 0.4% and 1.4% respectively to 0.3% and 1.3%. The Index of Services is

also anticipated to come in pretty flat with prior m/m and three month on three

month growth of 0.2% and 0.6% expected to change to 0.1% for the m/m figure and

the three month on three month growth is expected to remain unchanged. 

     At 0900GMT is the Eurozone Business and Consumer survey, Business climate

indicator and economic sentiment. Whilst industrial sentiment was impressive

with a previous index figure of 6.4, consumer confidence was fairly flat at 0.1.

The Business climate indicator was at 1.34 previously. The Economic sentiment

indicator is anticipated to remain very flat, dropping a touch from a prior of

112.6 to 112.

     First quarter GDP (1230GMT) is expected to be up 1.9%, weaker than the 2.9%

pace in the previous quarter, with the key factor being much slower PCE growth

as the retail sales data have been incredibly soft in recent months. Stronger

capital spending and inventory investment should provide some offset. First

quarter GDP growth is typically softer than the fourth quarter due to residual

seasonality. The chain price index is expected to rise 2.2% in the first quarter

after a 2.3% fourth quarter gain.

     The Employment Cost Index (1230GMT) is expected to rise by 0.7% in the

first quarter after a 0.6% gain in the previous quarter, but the year/year pace

should be roughly unchanged at 2.6%.

     The Michigan Sentiment index (1400GMT) is expected to be revised up

slightly to 97.9 from 97.8 in the preliminary estimate, remaining below the

101.4 reading in March. 

     For those looking for a talk on the weekend, look no further than Sofia,

Bulgaria on Saturday. ECB President Mario Draghi, ECB Executive Board member

Benoit Coeure, ECB Supervisory Board chair Daniele Nouy and ECB Gov. Council

member Jens Weidmann will participate in an informal Ecofin. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com