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MNI Global Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - A disappointing calendar Thursday struggles to keep up with
the momentum built up on Tuesday and Wednesday. Starting at 0600GMT in the EU,
the ACEA Car Registrations data is set for release. Previously, car
registrations declined sharply on a y/y basis by 5.3%.
     Next up, at 0900GMT is Euro Area Construction Output. Prior m/m growth
disappointed by contracting 0.5% and y/y growth was at 0.4%.
     At some point in the day France will release their BOF Retail Trade.
Previously, q/q retail trade grew at 1.1%.
     ECB speeches come again on Thursday with outgoing Executive Board member
Vitor Constancio speaking at 1030GMT and 1200GMT.
     The level of initial jobless claims (1230GMT) is expected to rise by 6,000
to 217,000 in the May 12 employment survey week after holding steady at 211,000
in the previous week, so the month/month comparison of survey weeks would be
highly favourable for May payrolls. The four-week moving average would fall by
4,000 in the coming week as the 233,000 level in the April 14 employment survey
week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and
there are no revisions. This would set another recent low point for the average.
     The Philadelphia Fed reading (also at 1230GMT) is forecast to decline to a
reading of 20.5 from 23.2 in April.
     The index of leading indicators (1400GMT) is forecast to rise by 0.4% in
April. Positive contributions are expected from lower initial jobless claims and
higher consumer expectations, offset by a negative contribution from lower stock
prices.
     Also at 1400GMT is New York Federal Reserve Bank Executive Vice President
Beverly Hirtle speaking in New York. This is followed by Minneapolis Federal
Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari speaking in Saint Paul, Minnesota at
1445GMT. The last of the speeches is Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob
Kaplan speaking in Richardson, Texas at 1730GMT.
     Concluding the infrequent calendar at 2350GMT is Japan with their consumer
price index data. The y/y rate is expected to fall back a touch from a prior
0.9% to 0.8%.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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