MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - A disappointing calendar Thursday struggles to keep up with

the momentum built up on Tuesday and Wednesday. Starting at 0600GMT in the EU,

the ACEA Car Registrations data is set for release. Previously, car

registrations declined sharply on a y/y basis by 5.3%.

     Next up, at 0900GMT is Euro Area Construction Output. Prior m/m growth

disappointed by contracting 0.5% and y/y growth was at 0.4%.

     At some point in the day France will release their BOF Retail Trade.

Previously, q/q retail trade grew at 1.1%.

     ECB speeches come again on Thursday with outgoing Executive Board member

Vitor Constancio speaking at 1030GMT and 1200GMT.

     The level of initial jobless claims (1230GMT) is expected to rise by 6,000

to 217,000 in the May 12 employment survey week after holding steady at 211,000

in the previous week, so the month/month comparison of survey weeks would be

highly favourable for May payrolls. The four-week moving average would fall by

4,000 in the coming week as the 233,000 level in the April 14 employment survey

week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and

there are no revisions. This would set another recent low point for the average.

     The Philadelphia Fed reading (also at 1230GMT) is forecast to decline to a

reading of 20.5 from 23.2 in April.

     The index of leading indicators (1400GMT) is forecast to rise by 0.4% in

April. Positive contributions are expected from lower initial jobless claims and

higher consumer expectations, offset by a negative contribution from lower stock

prices.

     Also at 1400GMT is New York Federal Reserve Bank Executive Vice President

Beverly Hirtle speaking in New York. This is followed by Minneapolis Federal

Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari speaking in Saint Paul, Minnesota at

1445GMT. The last of the speeches is Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob

Kaplan speaking in Richardson, Texas at 1730GMT.

     Concluding the infrequent calendar at 2350GMT is Japan with their consumer

price index data. The y/y rate is expected to fall back a touch from a prior

0.9% to 0.8%.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com