MNI Global Morning Briefing

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - A slower but important calendar sets the agenda for Thursday

and gets underway at 0600GMT, when Germany's wholesale prices are released.

Previously, m/m and y/y prices were 0.5% and 3.4% respectively. 

     Up next, at 0800GMT, is the Norges Bank's latest policy decision. As

highlighted by MNI analysis, the policy rate is not expected to change in August

with the previous minutes highlighting September as the month to watch out for. 

     UK release their July retail sales at 0830GMT, with analysts looking for a

pick up after a weak June. Previous m/m growth in retail sales was -0.5% and the

MNI median for the month of July is flat. Excluding fuels, retail sales was

previously -0.6% m/m, with the MNI median for the month of July at -0.1%. 

     Half an hour later, at 0900GMT, the EZ trade balance is published. The

previous trade balance was a surplus of EUR16.9 bn. 

     The US as usual takeover in the afternoon at 1230GMT, with initial jobless

claims, housing starts, The Philadelphia Fed index and the NY Fed Business

Leaders survey. 

     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 1,000 to 214,000

in the August 11 week after a decrease of 6,000 to 213,000 in the previous week.

The four-week moving average would rise by 1,500 in the coming week as the

decades-low 208,000 level in the July 14 week rolls out of the calculation,

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. Still, the

average would be extremely low.

     The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is expected to rebound to a

1.256 million annual rate in July after falling sharply in June. The NAHB index

held steady at 68 in July. As inventories remain tight, builders will likely

find it advantageous to boost output. The pace of building permits is expected

to tick up only slightly to a 1.295 million rate from the revised 1.292 million

rate in June.

     The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall to a reading of 22.0 in

August after rebounding to 25.7 in July.

     The NY Fed Business Leaders survey previously had an index reading of 14.8.

     Finishing up in Australia at 2330GMT, RBA Governor Philip Lowe appears

before the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics in

Canberra.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com