MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - In what has been a busy calendar through the week, Friday

sees the calendar take a breather, with limited data to report on.

     France data will get the ball rolling, when the BOF retail trade for August

is released ahead of the market open. The previous q/q growth in July was -0.7%.

     At 0800GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny speaks in Vienna. At

the same time is the HICP data for August from Italy.

     Next up at 0900GMT is labour costs and trade balance in the Euro Area for

Q2 and July respectively. The y/y growth rate for Q1 was 2.0%. In June, the

trade balance showed a surplus of EUR 16.7 bn.

     There is a double release in the US at 1230GMT, as retail sales and import

export price index data for August are published.

     Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.5% in August after a surprise 0.5% gain

in July. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales rose slightly in

August, but AAA reported that gasoline prices slipped modestly in mid-August

from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to also be up 0.5% excluding

motor vehicles after a 0.6% rise in July, further sign of underlying strength in

the third quarter.

     Imports and exports price index data for the month of August is expected to

show that imports prices declined by 0.2% compared to flat-lining in July. In

July, export prices declined by 0.5%.

     US industrial production is at 1315GMT and is expected to rise 0.4% in

August after a small gain in July. Factory payrolls fell by 3,000 in August,

while auto production jobs fell by 5,000 and the factory workweek was unchanged

at 41.0 hours. However, the ISM production index jumped to 63.3 in the current

month from 58.5 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to move

higher in the month on the hotter-than-usual weather after a further decline in

the previous month, while mining production is forecast to resume their upward

path after declining for the first time in five months in July. Capacity

utilization is forecast to rise to 78.3% from 78.1% in July.

     Business inventories (1400GMT) are expected to rise by 0.5% in July.

Factory inventories were already reported up 0.8% in the month, while the

advance report showed wholesale inventories rose 0.7% and retail inventories

rose 0.4%. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks for a 0.6% increase for

business inventories at this point, so the median forecast suggests analysts see

downward revisions to retail and/or wholesale inventories. As for sales, factory

shipments were flat and the advance estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.4%

gain, so the data suggest business sales was only mildly positive in the month

pending the data on wholesale sales and any revision to retail trade sales.

     The Michigan Sentiment index (also at 1400GMT) is expected to rise to 96.7

in early-September from 96.2 in August.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com