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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Europe's data calendar sees a quiet start to the week with the only data event worth noting being the Ifo business climate survey at 0900BST. In the US, durable goods orders at 1330BST will be closely watched.
Ifo business climate index seen higher
The March Ifo business climate indicator rose to the highest level since June 2019 as company's assessment of the current situation improved, while optimism rose as well, despite high infection rates. The index now stands at 96.6 in March and markets look for an increase to 97.8 in April. The current situation index rose to 93.0 in March, showing the highest reading since February 2020. In April, the index is projected to improve further to 94.5. The expectations index rose to a 35-month high of 100.4 in March and markets expect the index to improved further to 101.0, which would be the highest level since April 2018.
Survey evidence continues to signal expansion of business activity in all sectors. The Sentix index rose to the highest level since 2018, driven by a significant gain of the current situations index. Meanwhile, the flash composite PMI eased slightly in April, but remains comfortably in expansion territory.
Source: Ifo Institute
US durable goods orders expected to increase
New orders of manufactured durable goods declined by 1.1% in February after nine consecutive months of gains. Excluding transportation, orders ticked down 0.9%. While shipments dropped by 3.5% in February, unfilled orders edged up 0.8% and inventories rose 0.7%. In March, markets are looking for an increase in durable goods orders by 2.4%, while orders excluding transport are seen at 1.6%.
Survey evidence points to a further expansion of new orders. The ISM manufacturing PMI saw another uptick in new business with the March index rising to the highest level since 2004. Meanwhile, the IHS manufacturing PMI recorded the fastest increase in new orders since 2014.
The main events to follow on Monday include speeches by ECB's Fabio Panetta and Philip Lane.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.