Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
All eyes Friday will be on the Eurozone's flash July inflation data -- with no less interested observers than the ECB's Governing Council members.
Ahead of the inflation data, the euro area final manufacturing PMIs and the UK money and credit data will be released.
Euro PMIs and Inflation
Spanish and Italian PMIs will see their first June prints, with expectations that both are likely to slow, with Spain seen at 52.2 from 53.8 in May and Italy at 50.6 from 51.9.
France should be confirmed at 51.0, Germany at 52.0 and the Eurozone also at 52.0. UK manufacturing PMI data is also due, with analysts expecting confirmation of the flash 53.4.
Also due in the UK is the latest money supply, consumer credit and mortgage lending data from the Bank of England.
Mortgage approvals are expected to slow to 64,000 in May from 66,000 in April, although secured lending will pick up to GBP 4.3 billion from GBP 4.1 billion. Money supply M4 is seen at 4.9% y/y.
Eurozone inflation, due at 1000BST, will be the highlight of the morning, with expectations of a pick-up to a fresh record high 8.5%, up on the 8.1% seen in May. So far, national prints have seen a modest downside surprise in Germany, an upside beat in Spain and France in line with expectations. Core inflation is also seen edging higher, with analysts looking for a print at 3.9%, up from May's 3.8%.
Italian flash June inflation is expected at the same time.
US Survey data in focus
Survey data will be the feature in the US Friday, although markets will start to wind down early ahead of the July 4 weekend. At 1445BST, the June final manufacturing PMI will likely be confirmed at 52.4, while the ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to slow to 54.5 from 56.1 in May. The slowing economy would be in line with the latest MNI Chicago Report, which also slowed in June.
Construction spending will have picked up by 0.4% m/m in May, a modestly faster speed that the 0.2% seen in April.
There are currently no policymaker speakers scheduled for Friday.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 01/07/2022 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | ES | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2022 | 0745/0945 | ** |  | IT | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2022 | 0750/0950 | ** |  | FR | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2022 | 0755/0955 | ** |  | DE | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2022 | 0800/1000 | * |  | NO | Norway Unemployment Rate |
| 01/07/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | BOE M4 |
| 01/07/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/07/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 01/07/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (p) |
| 01/07/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | IT | HICP (p) |
| 01/07/2022 | - | *** |  | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 01/07/2022 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/07/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/07/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Construction Spending |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.