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GBP LIBOR - 08/12/2021


Big Swing in Rates On Vaccine Headlines


0% Aug-31 Bund

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With U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, Europe picks up the slack on data releases.

German Gfk consumer climate (0700 GMT)

German consumer confidence is forecast to drop to -1.0 in December, down almost two points from 0.9 in November. The index popped above zero last month, following all readings being below zero since the beginning of the pandemic.

Consumer optimism continues to diminish as inflated prices squeeze disposable incomes and citizens find themselves in a state of uncertainty with the imminent threat of lockdowns following neighbouring Austria.

German final Q3 GDP seen unrevised (0700 GMT)

German GDP growth is seen unrevised, with quarterly GDP predicted to remain at 1.8% q/q and annual GDP to stay steady at 2.5%.

Germany's growth over Q3 is largely attributable to boosted household consumption over the period, however, this was dampened by persistently high energy prices and supply bottlenecks hampering the manufacturing sector.

Spanish PPI seen higher again (0800 GMT)

Analysts are looking for the y/y PPI rate to jump above 24% in October, following last month's reading of 23.6%. The Spanish PPI showed negative readings from mid-2019 until this year, where prices have been hiking since March as inflated electricity and fuel costs coupled with supply chain disturbances continue to push prices upwards. Despite strong inflation, the ECB remains geared towards note hiking in 2022.

Swedish PPI to reach all-time high (0830 GMT)

Energy prices continue to wreak havoc across Europe, with Sweden's PPI is forecasted to continue to increase to 17.9% for October, compared to 17.2% in September and surpassing record highs in Swedish data. For the Riksbank this could imply either a separation from their three-year-long zero-rate policy or monetary tightening in the foreseeable future.

Speakers Thursday include ECB Executive Board members Isabel Schnabel and Frank Elderson, with BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC member Johnathan Haskel also on the schedule.