MNI Global Week Ahead August 16 – 20

Key Things to Watch:

• Tuesday, August 17 – U.S. Retail Sales
  • Sales decelerated through July as spending shifted away from goods towards services, with Bloomberg forecasting a decline of 0.3% after June's 0.6% increase.
  • A decline in vehicle sales likely offset most of the expected gains in restaurant and gas station sales, analysts say.
  • Excluding vehicle sales, sales should increase 0.2% after rising 1.3% in June, according to Bloomberg. Excluding vehicles and gas stations, sales should remain unchanged, while control group sales are expected to fall 0.3%.

• Wednesday, August 18 – UK Inflation
  • The July number is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m, while y/y inflation is expected to rise 2.3%, slowing from the 2.5% increase in June.
  • Inflation will likely remain above the Bank of England's 2% price target, although policymakers are set to look through any increase.
  • Core inflation is also seen slowing, up just 2.1% y/y against the 2.3% rise in June.

• Wednesday, August 18 – Canada Inflation
  • Inflation quickened to 3.4% in July from 3.1% in June according to an economist consensus, keeping it above the top of the central bank's 1%-3% target band for a fourth month.
  • Base effects on energy and rising service costs as the economy re-opened are expected to push prices up.
• The BOC last month raised inflation forecasts while affirming price gains are largely transitory. Inflation was 3.6% in May, the highest in a decade. The BOC predicts CPI of 3.4% in Q2, 3.9% in Q3, 3.5% in Q4.