MNI Global Week Ahead August 23 – 27

Key Things to Watch:

• Wednesday, August 25 – Germany IFO Survey
  • Germany's IFO survey is expected to confirm businesses see a modest slowing into late Q3, certainly in the manufacturing sector. The Current Climate index is expected to decline to 100.3 in August from 100.8 last month, with the Expectations index likely to decline to 100 from 101.2.
  • Expectations fell in July after hitting a post-Covid peak in June at 103.7 and are likely to drift again as the Delta variant remains a concern, supply chains pressures intensify, costs rise, and Asian export markets look set to slow.

• Thursday, August 26 – Saturday, August 28 – Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium
  • Fed Chair Jay Powell is set to deliver a speech via webcast on the economic outlook Friday at 10 ET. His remarks will be closely watched for any hints on QE taper timing and how the surge in delta variant cases is shaping the Fed's forecasts.
  • Minutes of the July FOMC meeting said most officials supported starting the taper this year if the economy performs as expected.
  • The topic of the annual academic conference is ""Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy" and a detailed schedule is typically released the evening before.

• Friday, August 27 – U.S. Personal Income
  • Incomes in July likely dropped off as many states ended federal pandemic unemployment insurance programs in late June, though that should be partially offset by wage increases through the month as labor remained in short supply. Personal income is set to increase 0.1%, according to Bloomberg, the same as June.
• Higher wages and price pressures on goods like gasoline and services in high demand kept PCE inflation elevated through July, with Bloomberg forecasting an increase of 0.4% m/m and 4.1% y/y. Core PCE inflation is set to grow 0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y.