Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MONDAY - SWEDEN CPI
Swedish CPI for December is due on Monday morning at 0700 GMT / 0800 CET. Consensus looks for CPIF ex-energy at 5.2% Y/Y (vs 5.4% prior) vs. Riksbank's November MPR forecast is 5.6% Y/Y. However, the Riksbank's forecast is stale following the 0.4pp miss in November (where 5.8% Y/Y was forecasted), so December CPI is almost mechanically expected to undershoot CB expectations. Should the Riksbank forecast error term widen in December, expectations for a softening of policy guidance at the next meeting on Feb 1 may increase. Rates are firmly expected to remain on hold. Indeed, in comments to reporters following yesterday's speech, Deputy Governor Jansson noted that "I am completely open to revise the rate path and if it no longer appears suitable I’ll be the first to reconsider".
TUESDAY - CANADA CPI
Consensus sees Canadian headline CPI accelerating a tenth to 3.2% Y/Y in December after two months at 3.1%, along with a near unchanged 3.4% Y/Y for the BoC’s preferred core inflation after coming in stronger than expected in November. There are however very few survey responses at typing so these figures could soon change. Focus should continue to remain on higher frequency measures of core inflation, with some seeing a firming from the drop to 2.5% annualized over the three months to November. The six-month average should also be watched, with the stalling at 3.3% annualized suggesting some recent stickiness in inflation. Coming a day earlier, Monday’s BoC business and consumer surveys add to an important week of Canadian data ahead of the BoC decision on Jan 24, with OIS currently implying a first cut in April.
TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - UK LABOUR MARKET/CPI
Labour market data and inflation are due for release from the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. There are still issues with UK labour market data impacting the headline unemployment rate but average weekly earnings data is unaffected. An early consensus looks for UK average weekly regular earnings data to be fall to either 6.6%3m/YoY or 6.7%3m/YoY from 7.3%3m/YoY. The more important metric remains private sector regular earnings data. Inflation data on Wednesday is expected to show a continued decline and continue to come in softer than the Bank of England’s November MPC forecasts. Although the week’s data are very unlikely to have any impact on monetary policy decisions in the next couple of months, the data could impact the vote at the February meeting, particularly if it comes in softer than expected.
WEDNESDAY - EUROZONE FINAL HICP
Eurozone final HICP for December is released on Tuesday, including the full breakdown of COICOP sub-components. The flash estimate printed at an unrounded +2.92% (vs +3.0% cons; +2.40% prior), as energy base effects pushed the headline rate upwards. As always, we will also focus our attention on the extent to which inflation breadth (measured as the % of 4-digit COICOP sub-components that have Y/Y inflation rates above 2%) improved in December, alongside the release of the ECB's underlying inflation measures (e.g. PCCI).
FRIDAY - JAPAN CPI
December National CPI is expected to continue the moderation trend. Headline CPI is projected back to 2.6% (from 2.8%), while core-core is forecast at 3.7%y/y. This would be consistent with the Tokyo CPI prints, which showed a further loss in y/y momentum across the main CPI indicators (albeit with some pockets of services strength). Reports have also emerged the BoJ is considering cutting its price and growth outlooks for FY 2024, with the price outlook impacted by lower oil prices (BBG). The underlying price view is unchanged.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 15/01/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** |  | SE | Inflation Report |
| 15/01/2024 | 0900/1000 |  | DE | German Annual 2023 GDP First Estimate | |
| 15/01/2024 | 0900/1000 |  | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting | |
| 15/01/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | Industrial Production |
| 15/01/2024 | 1000/1100 | * | | EU | Trade Balance |
| 15/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 15/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 15/01/2024 | 1400/0900 | * | | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 15/01/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | CA | BOC Business Outlook Survey |
| 16/01/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** | | DE | HICP (f) |
| 16/01/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | NO | Norway GDP |
| 16/01/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** |  | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 16/01/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16/01/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 16/01/2024 | 0900/1000 | | EU | ECB's De Guindos in ECOFIN meeting | |
| 16/01/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 16/01/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 16/01/2024 | 1000/1000 | * | | UK | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 16/01/2024 | 1315/0815 | ** | | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 16/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | CA | CPI |
| 16/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 16/01/2024 | 1500/1500 | | UK | BOE's Bailey Lords Economic Affairs Committee | |
| 16/01/2024 | 1600/1100 | | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 16/01/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 16/01/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 16/01/2024 | 1800/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 17/01/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** |  | CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
| 17/01/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** | | CN | Retail Sales |
| 17/01/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** | | CN | Industrial Output |
| 17/01/2024 | 0200/1000 | ** | | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |
| 17/01/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** | | CN | GDP |
| 17/01/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Consumer inflation report |
| 17/01/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Producer Prices |
| 17/01/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (f) |
| 17/01/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 17/01/2024 | 1200/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 17/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 17/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 17/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 17/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Retail Sales |
| 17/01/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 17/01/2024 | 1400/0900 | | US | Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr | |
| 17/01/2024 | 1400/0900 | | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 17/01/2024 | 1415/0915 | *** | | US | Industrial Production |
| 17/01/2024 | 1415/0915 | *** | | US | Industrial Production |
| 17/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | * | | US | Business Inventories |
| 17/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 17/01/2024 | 1515/1615 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde participates in Stakeholder Dialogue at WEF | |
| 17/01/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 17/01/2024 | 1900/1400 | | US | Fed Beige Book | |
| 17/01/2024 | 2000/1500 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 18/01/2024 | 2350/0850 | * |  | JP | Machinery orders |
| 18/01/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** |  | AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 18/01/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 18/01/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | Construction Production |
| 18/01/2024 | 1230/0730 | | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 18/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 18/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Housing Starts |
| 18/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 18/01/2024 | 1515/1615 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde participates in Stakeholder Dialogue at WEF | |
| 18/01/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 18/01/2024 | 1600/1100 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 18/01/2024 | 1705/1205 | | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 18/01/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note |
| 19/01/2024 | 2330/0830 | *** | | JP | CPI |
| 19/01/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | PPI |
| 19/01/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Retail Sales |
| 19/01/2024 | 1000/1100 | | EU | GDP Q3 2023 revisions | |
| 19/01/2024 | 1000/1100 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde participates in Stakeholder Dialogue at WEF | |
| 19/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | CA | Retail Trade |
| 19/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 19/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 19/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 19/01/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 19/01/2024 | 1800/1300 | | US | Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr | |
| 19/01/2024 | 2100/1600 | ** | | US | TICS |
| 19/01/2024 | 2115/1615 | | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.