Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Developed Markets
Sunday: French Legislative Election (First round)
In a decision that will have significant repercussions for domestic politics, as well as on the wider European continent, President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap legislative election to take place on 30 June and 7 July. Macron called the election after the right-wing nationalist Rassembelement National (National Rally, RN) won a comfortable victory in France’s election to the European Parliament on 9 June. There is the realistic prospect that the next French prime minister will come from either the far-right or far-left of the political spectrum. This will impact not only the outlook for government policy-making and France’s fiscal trajectory, but could also influence Paris’ positions with regard to European Union policy formation and even see the government’s previous military and financial backing for Ukraine wane significantly.
Monday: Japan Tankan Survey
Market expectations look for a relatively steady Tankan outcome in terms of the Q2 print. This would keep indicators around recent levels, which off cyclical highs, but comfortably above 2020 trough points. From a BoJ standpoint, focus is more on the wage/inflation outcomes, along with hopes for a consumption recovery. Hence the prints may not shift market sentiment greatly.
Tuesday: Eurozone June Flash Inflation
Eurozone June flash inflation is due on Tuesday, with analysts expecting a moderation in both core and headline rates to 2.8% Y/Y and 2.5% Y/Y respectively. MNI’s current tracking of the headline print, based on already-released national inflation data is in line with consensus expectations. The German data, due Monday afternoon (with state-level data reported in the morning) should provide the final piece of the puzzle ahead of the region-wide release. On Monday – Wednesday next week, the ECB will be holding its annual Forum on Central Banking in Sintra. Several speakers are scheduled across the week, providing an opportunity to share views on the June inflation data as well as broader discussions around the future path of ECB policy.
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
One key aspect to watch in the minutes to the June FOMC meeting (Wednesday 1400ET) is the Committee's take on the latest inflation data and the degree to which such readings provide "confidence" for cutting rates. Chair Powell said at the press conference that they saw May's CPI "report as progress and as... building confidence, but we don't see ourselves as having the confidence that would warrant... beginning to loosen policy at this time." On the updated FOMC projections, which showed 15 of 19 Committee members split between 1 or 2 cuts for 2024 (recall, the median moved to 1 cut from 3 in March's SEP), Powell said participants' decisions between 1 vs 2 were "very close calls" and it will be interesting if the Minutes hint at just how close. By the same token, it could be of note if an increasing number of participants are eyeing possible hikes (the May minutes revealed "various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further").
Thursday: UK General Election
The United Kingdom holds its general election on Thursday 4 July with the main question being not which party wins, but just how big the majority will be for Sir Keir Starmer and his centre-left Labour Party. Opinion polling in the final days of the contest show the incumbent centre-right Conservatives of PM Rishi Sunak on course for what could be an historic defeat, with rise of the right-wing populist Reform UK of Nigel Farage having the potential to push the Conservatives below 100 seats in the 650-member House of Commons. Exit polls will be released on the stroke of 2200BST (1700ET, 2300CET), with a clear picture of the result becoming apparent in the early hours of Friday 5 July. Labour have sought to present a moderate stance with regard to tax and spending if they win power, but a sizeable majority for Starmer would mean any move towards tax increases and higher spending on public services would face little-to-no effective opposition in parliament.
Friday: US Labour Market Data
Coming at the end of an important week for macro including ISM services on Wednesday, the June nonfarm payrolls report on Friday is firmly in focus. Payrolls were far stronger than expected back in May but continued discrepancies with the household survey saw the unemployment rate surprisingly edge a tenth higher to 4.0% (from 3.86 to 3.96%) for its highest since Jan 2022. For June, consensus sees a circa 190k monthly increase which is in line with the “nearly 200k” pace consistent with a stable unemployment rate most recently estimated by Fed Governor Cook. With latest QCEW data suggesting payrolls growth could have been overstated, we could see particular focus on the unemployment rate which is expected to hold at 4.0%. Average hourly wage growth meanwhile is seen moderating in June to 0.3% M/M and with the year-ago rate by two tenths to 3.9% Y/Y, the latter its first three handle on a rounded basis since Jun 2021.
Emerging Markets
Wednesday - NBP Decision (Poland)
Another on-hold monetary policy decision from the Polish central bank is all but guaranteed, with recent communications reinforcing expectations of stable rates through the reminder of 2024. The dominant view among sell-side analysts is that June saw the last on-target CPI reading this year ahead of the unfreezing of energy prices in July, which - coupled with sticky core inflation - encourages policymakers to exercise caution. The updated official inflation projection, as well as fresh comments from Governor Adam Glapinski, will be the highlights of the coming meeting, and may shed some some light on the rate outlook.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 29/06/2024 | 1315/1515 |  | EU | ECB's Schnabel participates in Petersberger Sommer-Dialog | |
| 30/06/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** |  | CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/06/2024 | 0130/0930 | ** | | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/06/2024 | - |  | FR | First round election | |
| 30/06/2024 | 1300/0900 |  | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 01/07/2024 | 2300/0900 | ** |  | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2024 | 2350/0850 | *** |  | JP | Tankan |
| 01/07/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** | | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/07/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** | | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/07/2024 | 0630/0830 | ** |  | CH | Retail Sales |
| 01/07/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2024 | 0745/0945 | ** |  | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2024 | 0750/0950 | ** | | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** |  | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 01/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 01/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | BOE M4 |
| 01/07/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 01/07/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/07/2024 | 1200/1400 | *** | | DE | HICP (p) |
| 01/07/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/07/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 01/07/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 01/07/2024 | 1900/2100 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde speech at ECB forum on Central Banking | |
| 02/07/2024 | 2301/0001 | * | | UK | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 02/07/2024 | 0130/1130 | | AU | RBA Minutes | |
| 02/07/2024 | 0730/0930 | | EU | ECB's De Guindos chairing session on inflation | |
| 02/07/2024 | 0830/1030 | | EU | ECB's Elderson chairs session on biodiversity | |
| 02/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (p) |
| 02/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Unemployment |
| 02/07/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 02/07/2024 | 1030/1230 | | EU | ECB's Schnabel chairing panel on Geopolitical shock and inflation | |
| 02/07/2024 | - | *** | | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 02/07/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 02/07/2024 | 1330/1530 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde in policy panel at ECB forum | |
| 02/07/2024 | 1330/0930 | | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 02/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 02/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 02/07/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 03/07/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Retail Trade |
| 03/07/2024 | 0700/0300 | * |  | TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/07/2024 | 0800/1000 | | EU | ECB's De Guindos chairing MonPol Cycles session | |
| 03/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | PPI |
| 03/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | | EU | ECB's Cipollone chairing Productivty session | |
| 03/07/2024 | 1030/1230 | | EU | ECB's Lane chairing panel on equilibirum interest rates | |
| 03/07/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 03/07/2024 | 1100/0700 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 03/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Trade Balance |
| 03/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 03/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 03/07/2024 | 1330/1530 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde closing remarks at ECB Forum | |
| 03/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 03/07/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 03/07/2024 | 1600/1200 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 03/07/2024 | 1800/1400 | *** | | US | FOMC Minutes |
| 04/07/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Trade Balance |
| 04/07/2024 | 0545/0745 | ** | | CH | Unemployment |
| 04/07/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 04/07/2024 | 0630/0830 | *** | | CH | CPI |
| 04/07/2024 | 0730/0930 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04/07/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 04/07/2024 | 0830/0930 | | UK | Decision Making Panel Data | |
| 04/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | | EU | ECB's Lane Lecture at University of Naples | |
| 04/07/2024 | - | | UK | General Election | |
| 04/07/2024 | 1415/1615 | | EU | ECB's Cipollone speech at 15th edition of National Statistics conference | |
| 05/07/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | Industrial Production |
| 05/07/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 05/07/2024 | 0645/0845 | * | | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/07/2024 | 0645/0845 | * | | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 05/07/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** | | ES | Industrial Production |
| 05/07/2024 | 0700/0900 | | EU | The ECB Podcast - War, geopolitics and the economy | |
| 05/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Retail Sales |
| 05/07/2024 | 0900/1100 | * | | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05/07/2024 | 0940/0540 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 05/07/2024 | 1215/1415 | | EU | ECB's Elderson in Panel on data culture at DiFoR Conference | |
| 05/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Employment Report |
| 05/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 05/07/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 05/07/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 05/07/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 05/07/2024 | 1715/1915 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde speech at Les Rencontres Economiques d'Aix-en-Provence 2024 |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.