CANADA TO PUBLISH FISCAL UPDATE ON DEC. 16

MNI BRIEF: Inflation Expectations Tick Higher - NY Fed

MNI BRIEF: China Passenger Car Sales Up In November Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Inflation Down To 4.55% In November

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, December 9

MNI BRIEF: China To Strengthen Policy Easing In 2025: Poliburo

MNI:US OCT WHOLESALE INV 0.2%; SALES -0.1%

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - Eurozone Inflation, US PCE Headline

Developed Markets

WEDNESDAY: Australia CPI

April CPI prints on Wednesday and will be watched closely after the RBA revised up its Q2 forecast for both headline and core to 3.8% and cited upside risks to inflation in its statement. Consensus currently sees headline CPI at 3.4% Y/Y. March headline increased 0.1pp to 3.5% y/y and the trimmed mean to 4.0%. There has been no improvement over 2024 from December. Petrol prices were around 2% higher in April which could keep headline elevated. It is worth noting that the first month of the quarter doesn't include an update of the services components, which the RBA is particularly concerned about.

WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY: Eurozone Flash HICP

The Eurozone May flash inflation round is due next week. Ahead of the Eurozone-wide release on Friday, we will have already received national data from Germany (Wednesday), Spain (Thursday) and France (Friday morning). Current Bloomberg consensus sees Eurozone headline HICP at 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.4% in April) and core at 2.7% Y/Y (steady vs April). Energy inflation is expected to turn positive on an annual basis for the first time since April 2023, owing to strong base effects. Similarly, services disinflation is expected to stall (or even tick up) due to base effects from the German E49 rail ticket, which was introduced in May 2023. Overall, the data is not expected to derail the ECB's plans to cut rates at its June meeting, but the persistence of underlying inflation momentum may impact communication for the path of rates beyond that gathering.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY: US GDP and PCE

There’s another slow start to the holiday-shortened week but the calendar heats up Thursday with the second release for Q1 national accounts before Friday's April PCE report. At typing, analysts expect Q1 real GDP growth to be trimmed a little further to 1.3% annualized from what was a surprisingly soft 1.6% in the advance release. Personal consumption is seen driving the downward revision (2.1% from 2.5%), but initial GDP tracking estimates are already strong for Q2 (latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 3.5%) so barring large Q1 revisions, greater focus should be on April’s consumption data. Within the PCE and incomes release, core PCE inflation will no doubt be watched closely to see the extent of the wedge to core CPI inflation, which continues to be boosted by strong vehicle insurance amongst other specific factors. Detailed analyst estimates appear to be centering on a core PCE print of circa 0.25% M/M which creates risk of what looks like a downside surprise to current Bloomberg consensus of 0.3%.

FRIDAY: Japan Data

Tokyo CPI will print for May on Friday. The market expects a rebound in y/y momentum across the headline and core measures. Recall April CPI was biased lower due to education subsidies impacting the result. Hence some rebound shouldn't be surprising, although the core ex fresh food, energy measure is expected to be steady at 1.8% y/y. On the jobs front, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 2.6%.

FRIDAY: Canada GDP

Friday sees Q1 GDP for the last main data hurdle before the June 5 BoC decision. Monthly data have come in far stronger than originally expected, prompting the BoC to sharply revise its Q1 GDP growth forecast to 2.8% in the April MPR from 0.5% in the January MPR. At typing, the survey of analyst estimates is still too thin but the monthly GDP data from the industrial accounts point to a 2.5% annualized increase. With markets still pricing around 16bp of cuts for the upcoming meeting, upside surprises could easily see the meeting decision as more of a coin toss, whilst a downside surprise would further embolden the more dovish members on the Governing Council.

Emerging Markets

THURSDAY: SARB Decision

There is a general shared understanding that the SARB will stand pat on rates in its first post-election monetary policy decision. The central bank's rhetoric remains relatively hawkish, while inflation continues to linger above the SARB's preferred +4.5% Y/Y target mid-point. The upcoming meeting will be the first one since the appointment of Mampho Modise to the MPC brought the number of current members to six, with the SARB still looking to fill the one remaining vacant seat on the rate-setting panel.


DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
26/05/20240730/0930EU ECB's Cipollone Speech on Climate and MonPol
27/05/20240800/1000***DE IFO Business Climate Index
27/05/20241200/1400EU ECB's Lane speech on Inflation in the Eurozone at IIEA
27/05/20241300/1500**BE BNB Business Sentiment
28/05/20242301/0001*UK BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
28/05/20240130/1130**AU Retail Trade
28/05/20240455/0055US Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
28/05/20240455/0655EU ECB's Schnabel in panel discussion at BOJ-IMES conference
28/05/20240800/1000**EU ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
28/05/20241000/1100**UK CBI Distributive Trades
28/05/20241230/0830*CA Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
28/05/20241300/0900**US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
28/05/20241300/0900**US FHFA Home Price Index
28/05/20241300/0900**US FHFA Quarterly Price Index
28/05/20241355/0955US Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
28/05/20241400/1000***US Conference Board Consumer Confidence
28/05/20241400/1000*US US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
28/05/20241400/1000*US US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
28/05/20241430/1030**US Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
28/05/20241530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
28/05/20241530/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
28/05/20241700/1300*US US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
28/05/20241705/1305US Fed Governor Lisa Cook
29/05/20240130/1130***AU CPI Inflation Monthly
29/05/20240600/0800*DE GFK Consumer Climate
29/05/20240600/0800**SE Retail Sales
29/05/20240600/1400**CN MNI China Liquidity Index (CLI)
29/05/20240645/0845**FR Consumer Sentiment
29/05/20240800/1000**EU M3
29/05/20240800/1000**IT ISTAT Business Confidence
29/05/20240800/1000**IT ISTAT Consumer Confidence
29/05/20240800/1000***DE North Rhine Westphalia CPI
29/05/20240800/1000***DE Bavaria CPI
29/05/20240900/1000*UK Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
29/05/20241100/0700**US MBA Weekly Applications Index
29/05/20241200/1400***DE HICP (p)
29/05/20241255/0855**US Redbook Retail Sales Index
29/05/20241400/1000**US Richmond Fed Survey
29/05/20241430/1030**US Dallas Fed Services Survey
29/05/20241530/1130**US US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
29/05/20241700/1300**US US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
29/05/20241745/1345US New York Fed's John Williams
29/05/20241800/1400US Fed Beige Book
29/05/20242300/1900US Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
30/05/20240130/1130*AU Building Approvals
30/05/20240130/1130*AU Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure
30/05/20240600/0800***SE GDP
30/05/20240700/0900***ES HICP (p)
30/05/20240700/0900**CH KOF Economic Barometer
30/05/20240700/0900***CH GDP
30/05/20240700/0900**SE Economic Tendency Indicator
30/05/20240900/1100**EU Unemployment
30/05/20240900/1100**EU EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator
30/05/20240900/1100*EU Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment
30/05/20240900/1100**IT PPI
30/05/20241230/0830***US Jobless Claims
30/05/20241230/0830***US GDP
30/05/20241230/0830*CA Current account
30/05/20241230/0830*CA Payroll employment
30/05/20241230/0830**US Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
30/05/20241400/1000**US NAR Pending Home Sales
30/05/20241430/1030**US Natural Gas Stocks
30/05/20241455/1055CA BOC payment director gives speech in Toronto.
30/05/20241500/1100**US DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
30/05/20241605/1205US New York Fed's John Williams
30/05/20242100/1700US Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
31/05/20242330/0830**JP Tokyo CPI
31/05/20242330/0830*JP Labor Force Survey
31/05/20242350/0850*JP Retail Sales (p)
31/05/20242350/0850**JP Industrial Production
31/05/20240130/0930***CN CFLP Manufacturing PMI
31/05/20240130/0930**CN CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
31/05/20240600/0800**DE Retail Sales
31/05/20240600/0800**DE Import/Export Prices
31/05/20240630/0730UK DMO to release FQ2 (Jul-Sep) gilt operations calendar
31/05/20240630/0830**CH Retail Sales
31/05/20240645/0845***FR HICP (p)
31/05/20240645/0845**FR PPI
31/05/20240645/0845**FR Consumer Spending
31/05/20240645/0845***FR GDP (f)
31/05/20240800/1000***IT GDP (f)
31/05/20240830/0930**UK BOE M4
31/05/20240830/0930**UK BOE Lending to Individuals
31/05/20240900/1100***EU HICP (p)
31/05/20240900/1100***IT HICP (p)
31/05/20241230/0830**US Personal Income and Consumption
31/05/20241230/0830***CA GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts
31/05/20241230/0830***CA Gross Domestic Product by Industry
31/05/20241230/0830***CA CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined
31/05/20241230/0830**US WASDE Weekly Import/Export
31/05/20241345/0945***US MNI Chicago PMI
31/05/20241500/1100CA Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
31/05/20241700/1300**US Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
31/05/20242215/1815US Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.