MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: EZ Flash Feb Inflation Data Due

MONDAY

Italy Business / Consumer Confidence: After more optimistic German consumer sentiment and slightly weaker French confidence, Italian consumers are likely to be tentatively upbeat in February. A 0.4-point increase to 101.3 is projected. Despite consumer confidence making steps towards recovery for the bloc, propensity to buy subindicators remain subdued, implying little boost to consumer spending.

TUESDAY

France Final Q4 GDP / Consumer Spending / Flash HICP: French GDP is seen confirmed at +0.1% q/q in Q4, narrowly avoiding flat growth. January consumer spending data will provide initial evidence for Q1 outlooks, after contracting into year-end. Flash HICP for February is also due, whereby 0.1pp uptick to return to the euro-era high of +7.1% y/y is forecasted.

Spain Flash HICP: Spanish HICP is expected to cool by 0.6pp to +5.3% y/y in the February flash, with prices ticking up again on the month (+1.0% m/m expected).

Canada GDP: Canadian Q4 GDP will slow into year-end, with the monthly GDP series is tracking at +1.6% for the quarterly annualised print, slowing from +2.9% in Q3. The BoC’s January MPR forecast was looking for +1.3% for Q4 GDP (revised up from 0.5 in the Oct MPR).

MNI Chicago Business Barometer: The Chicago PMI, produced by MNI, for February follows five consecutive months of contractionary activity. The data is due one day in advance of the strongly correlated ISM manufacturing index.

US Consumer Confidence: Consensus is expecting a 1.3-point uptick to 108.4 for US consumer confidence. Conference Board consumer confidence was softer than expected in January as it fell from an upward revised 109.0 to 107.3. Part of that was likely on 1-year out consumer inflation expectations firming from 6.6% to 6.8%.

WEDNESDAY

Final Manufacturing PMIs: Final prints are expected to confirm February flash manufacturing PMIs. Eurozone manufacturing PMIs recovered in the February flash data, re-entering expansionary territory for the first time in nine months on the back of signs of easing inflationary pressures and further reductions in supply chain issues. New orders remain weak, implying muted demand will continue to drag on growth. UK manufacturing remained only marginally contractive, at a seven-month high.

The S&P Global US manufacturing PMI also improved in February, albeit remaining firmly contractive at 47.8. Employment continued to rise, despite new orders falling again due to muted demand conditions.

Germany Flash HICP: Consensus is pencilling in a +0.7% m/m uptick in German HICP in the February flash, with annualised HICP to edge down 0.2pp to +9.0% y/y. The slew of state data in the morning will give indication of any surprises on the cards.

US ISM Manufacturing: ISM manufacturing is forecasted to edge up by 0.4 points to 47.8 in February, implying a fifth consecutive month of contractive activity levels.

THURSDAY

Eurozone HICP / Unemployment: After the final 0.1pp upside revision to January HICP (following delayed German data), February flash inflation is anticipated to cool by 0.5pp to +8.1% y/y. Core CPI will be unlikely to budge from its fresh euro-era high of +5.3% y/y, concern for the ECB which is fuelling further rate hikes in the next meetings.

Eurozone unemployment is projected to hold steady at the record low of 6.6%.

Italy HICP: Italian harmonised inflation is anticipated to ease by 1.0pp to +9.7% y/y in the February flash, with prices edging down by -0.1% m/m.

FRIDAY

France Industrial Production: French industrial production will kick off the January round of major euro area players, expected to slow to +0.3% m/m after the +1.1% m/m auto-production boost in December.

Final Services PMIs: Final prints are expected to confirm February flash services PMIs. UK and euro-area services PMIs saw robust demand in the February flash. The services PMIs hint at higher services inflation in the near term, citing underlying wage pressure. This, alongside robust performance will underpin further confidence in the ECB’s tightening cycle and adds to the probability of a BOE hike in March (for which a 25bp hike is likely).

The S&P Global US services PMI followed suit, surprising to the upside and re-entering expansive territory.

Eurozone PPI: Eurozone factory-gate inflation is anticipated to cool by 5.8pp to +18.8% y/y in January. Of interest will be moves in the core PPI rates, as a forward indication of stubbornly high core HICP. Ex. energy, December core PPI uptick cooled by -0.1% m/m and eased by 0.9pp to +12.3% y/y. Despite marginal, this was the first deflationary M/M reading since May 2020.

US ISM Services: ISM services is expected to moderate by 0.7 points to around 54.5 in February, after the surprise jump in January fuelled by a rebound in new orders. Sustained services growth will be vital in bolstering the US economy in Q1 as the manufacturing industry remains propped on shaky legs.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
27/02/2023	0030/1130			AU	Business Indicators
27/02/2023	0700/0800	**		SE	Retail Sales
27/02/2023	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
27/02/2023	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
27/02/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	M3
27/02/2023	0900/0900			UK	BOE Broadbent Opens BEAR Research Conference
27/02/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator
27/02/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	Current account
27/02/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Durable Goods New Orders
27/02/2023	1500/1000	**		US	NAR Pending Home Sales
27/02/2023	1530/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
27/02/2023	1530/1030			US	Fed Governor Philip Jefferson
27/02/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
27/02/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
27/02/2023	1700/1800			EU	ECB Lane Lecture at Goethe University Frankfurt
28/02/2023	0030/1130	**		AU	Retail Trade
28/02/2023	0030/1130			AU	Balance of Payments: Current Account
28/02/2023	0700/0800	**		SE	PPI
28/02/2023	0700/0800	***		SE	GDP
28/02/2023	0745/0845	**		FR	Consumer Spending
28/02/2023	0745/0845	***		FR	HICP (p)
28/02/2023	0745/0845	**		FR	PPI
28/02/2023	0745/0845	***		FR	GDP (f)
28/02/2023	0800/0900	***		CH	GDP
28/02/2023	0800/0900	***		ES	HICP (p)
28/02/2023	0800/0900	*		CH	KOF Economic Barometer
28/02/2023	1015/1015			UK	BOE Treasury Select Committee hearing: The crypto-asset industry
28/02/2023	1215/1215			UK	BOE Pill Closes BEAR Research Conference
28/02/2023	1230/1230			UK	BOE Mann Panellist at EIB Forum
28/02/2023	1330/0830	***		CA	CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined
28/02/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	Capital and repair expenditure survey
28/02/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
28/02/2023	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
28/02/2023	1400/0900	**		US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
28/02/2023	1400/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
28/02/2023	1400/0900	**		US	FHFA Quarterly Price Index
28/02/2023	1445/0945	**		US	MNI Chicago PMI
28/02/2023	1500/1000	***		US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
28/02/2023	1500/1000	**		US	Richmond Fed Survey
28/02/2023	1530/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed Services Survey
28/02/2023	1930/1430			US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
01/03/2023	2200/0900	**		AU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/03/2023	0001/0001	*		UK	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
01/03/2023	0030/1130	***		AU	Quarterly GDP
01/03/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
01/03/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
01/03/2023	0130/0930	**		CN	CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
01/03/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI
01/03/2023	0700/0800	**		NO	Norway GDP
01/03/2023	0815/0915	**		ES	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/03/2023	0845/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/03/2023	0850/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/03/2023	0855/0955	**		DE	Unemployment
01/03/2023	0855/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/03/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/03/2023	0930/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
01/03/2023	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
01/03/2023	1000/1000			UK	BOE Bailey Speech at Cost of Living Crisis Conference
01/03/2023	1200/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
01/03/2023	1300/1400	***		DE	HICP (p)
01/03/2023	1445/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final)
01/03/2023	1500/1000	***		US	ISM Manufacturing Index
01/03/2023	1500/1000	*		US	Construction Spending
01/03/2023	-	***		US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
01/03/2023	1530/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
02/03/2023	0030/1130	*		AU	Building Approvals
02/03/2023	1000/1000	*		UK	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
02/03/2023	1000/1100	***		IT	HICP (p)
02/03/2023	1000/1100	***		EU	HICP (p)
02/03/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	Unemployment
02/03/2023	1230/1330			EU	ECB Schnabel at MMCG Meeting
02/03/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
02/03/2023	1330/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
02/03/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Non-Farm Productivity (f)
02/03/2023	1500/1500			UK	BOE Pill Speech at Wales Week
02/03/2023	1530/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
02/03/2023	2100/1600			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
03/03/2023	2200/0900	*		AU	IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI
03/03/2023	2350/0850	**		JP	Tokyo CPI
03/03/2023	0030/1130	**		AU	Lending Finance Details
03/03/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Services PMI
03/03/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Services PMI
03/03/2023	0700/0800	**		DE	Trade Balance
03/03/2023	0700/0800	*		NO	Norway Unemployment Rate
03/03/2023	0700/0200	*		TR	Turkey CPI
03/03/2023	0745/0845	*		FR	Industrial Production
03/03/2023	0815/0915	**		ES	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
03/03/2023	0830/0930			EU	ECB de Guindos Q&A at CUNEF University
03/03/2023	0845/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
03/03/2023	0850/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
03/03/2023	0855/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
03/03/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
03/03/2023	0900/1000	***		IT	GDP (f)
03/03/2023	0930/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
03/03/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	PPI
03/03/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	Building Permits
03/03/2023	1445/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Services Index (final)
03/03/2023	1500/1000	***		US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
03/03/2023	1600/1100			US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
03/03/2023	1700/1200			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
03/03/2023	2000/1500			US	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
03/03/2023	2115/1615			US	Richmond Fed Tom Barkin