Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Monday
Italy Flash Q3 GDP: Italian GDP is expected to contract by -0.1% q/q in the flash Q3 data, after having expanded by +1.1% q/q in Q2.
Eurozone Flash CPI & Q3 GDP: Eurozone GDP will likely be boosted by Friday’s increase in German GDP, which saw the economy advance by +0.3% q/q versus an expected -0.1% q/q contraction. The consensus is looking for a modest +0.1% to +0.2% q/q expansion, all but stalling as soaring inflation cuts into demand.
Substantial inflation beats from France, Italy and Germany from Friday will add significant upside pressure to Monday's aggregate release. The headline figure was initially anticipated to soften by 0.5pp to +9.5% y/y, however, today's recent forecasts have shifted to around +10.3 to +10.7%.
This will be uncomfortable news for the ECB following Thursday's 75bps hike, and makes a second 75bp in December highly probable. The terminal rate is now expected to be closer to 2.25%.
MNI Chicago Report: MNI’s Chicago report is due on Monday ahead of the ISM manufacturing PMI on Tuesday which fell sharply to 45.7 in September.
Tuesday
RBA Rate Decision: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to deliver a 25bp hike to 2.85% at its monthly meeting after the September quarter CPI rose at a 7.3% y/y pace. This has since triggered the pricing in of additional hikes and a terminal rate above 4%.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: The ISM manufacturing PMI is projected to stall at the breakeven point of 50 in October, down 0.9 points from September. Sliding new orders will be the key downwards driver, as global demand weakens on the back of recessionary fears. This would be the lowest since May 2020 and in line with S&P Global’s PMI, which is slightly contractionary at 49.9 – the final print will be due shortly beforehand.
Wednesday:
Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs: First and final prints are due for Italy and Spain, likely to show a deeper fall in business activity as new orders fall across the bloc. Final services PMIs are due on Friday.
FOMC Rate Decision: The November FOMC meeting is mainly about the message the Fed wants to send about its plans for December.
A 4th consecutive 75bp hike is assured this time. But a step-down to a 50bp hike at the following meeting looks like the path of least resistance – the question is, how strongly does the FOMC seek to express that view now. In a close call, we expect only limited changes to the Statement – but anticipate that Chair Powell will signal that the Committee is currently eyeing either 50bp or 75bp in December, with the decision to be data-dependent.
Thursday
Norway Rate Decision: The Norges Bank will be tossing up either 25bp or 50bp for their November hike and consensus is relatively evenly split. Following the surprise acceleration in CPI to +6.9% y/y in September, a 50bp hike may be necessary despite contradicting the signal in the last meeting of slowing the pace.
Eurozone Unemployment: The euro-area labour market is set to remain tight in September at the record low of 6.6%, underpinning confidence in the ECB’s hiking cycle.
BOE Meeting: A 75bp hike remains the base case for the Bank of England’s Thursday meeting, although a 50bp hike cannot be ruled out as the committee remains vastly divided. Markets have largely scaled back incredibly hawkish expectations following financial market instability associated with the botched “mini budget”.
ISM Services PMI: The ISM services PMI is forecast to weaken by 1.2 points to 55.5, remaining elevated above the contractionary S&P Global index. The ISM Services PMI and S&P Global services PMI have diverged notably since June 2022 – see our data insight piece here: https://marketnews.com/implications-of-the-u-s-ser...
Friday
US Nonfarm Payrolls: Consensus sees payroll growth continuing to moderate at 200k, moving closer to pre-pandemic averages but still very solid at this stage in the cycle. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up a tenth to 3.6% off joint record lows after the surprise decline in Sep, partly on the back of the same-sized increase in participation.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 31/10/2022 | 0030/1130 | ** |  | AU | Retail Trade |
| 31/10/2022 | 0130/0930 | *** |  | CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 31/10/2022 | 0130/0930 | ** | | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 31/10/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | Retail Sales |
| 31/10/2022 | 0730/0830 | ** |  | CH | retail sales |
| 31/10/2022 | 0800/0900 |  | ES | Retail Sales | |
| 31/10/2022 | 0900/1000 | *** |  | IT | GDP (p) |
| 31/10/2022 | 0930/0930 | ** |  | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 31/10/2022 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE M4 |
| 31/10/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** |  | EU | HICP (p) |
| 31/10/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** | | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q |
| 31/10/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** | | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y |
| 31/10/2022 | 1345/0945 | ** |  | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 31/10/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 31/10/2022 | 1500/1600 | | EU | ECB Lane Speech at Danmarks Nationalbank Conference | |
| 31/10/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 31/10/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 31/10/2022 | 1900/1500 | | US | Treasury Financing Estimates | |
| 01/11/2022 | 2200/0900 | ** | | AU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/11/2022 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/11/2022 | 0145/0945 | ** | | CN | IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/11/2022 | 0330/1430 | *** | | AU | RBA Rate Decision |
| 01/11/2022 | 0800/0900 | | CH | SECO Consumer Confidence | |
| 01/11/2022 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/11/2022 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 01/11/2022 | - |  | DK | Danish General Election | |
| 01/11/2022 | - | *** | | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 01/11/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 01/11/2022 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/11/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/11/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/11/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 01/11/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 01/11/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 01/11/2022 | 2230/1830 |  | CA | BOC Governor Macklem at Senate bank committee | |
| 02/11/2022 | 0001/0001 | * | | UK | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 02/11/2022 | 0030/1130 | ** | | AU | Lending Finance Details |
| 02/11/2022 | 0030/1130 | * | | AU | Building Approvals |
| 02/11/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | Trade Balance |
| 02/11/2022 | 0815/0915 | ** | | ES | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/11/2022 | 0845/0945 | ** | | IT | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/11/2022 | 0850/0950 | ** |  | FR | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/11/2022 | 0855/0955 | ** | | DE | Unemployment |
| 02/11/2022 | 0855/0955 | ** | | DE | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/11/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/11/2022 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 02/11/2022 | 1215/0815 | *** | | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 02/11/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | housing vacancies |
| 02/11/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 02/11/2022 | 1515/1115 | | CA | BOC director Ron Morrow speaks on payments supervision | |
| 02/11/2022 | 1800/1400 | *** | | US | FOMC Statement |
| 03/11/2022 | 2200/0900 | * | | AU | IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI |
| 03/11/2022 | 0030/1130 | ** | | AU | Trade Balance |
| 03/11/2022 | 0145/0945 | ** | | CN | IHS Markit Final China Services PMI |
| 03/11/2022 | 0700/0300 | * |  | TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/11/2022 | 0730/0830 | *** | | CH | CPI |
| 03/11/2022 | 0805/0905 | | EU | ECB Lagarde Panels Latvijas Banka Conference | |
| 03/11/2022 | 0810/0910 | | EU | ECB Panetta Speech at ECB Money Market Conference | |
| 03/11/2022 | 0900/1000 | *** |  | NO | Norges Bank Rate Decision |
| 03/11/2022 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Final) |
| 03/11/2022 | 0950/1050 | | EU | ECB Elderson Panels Latvijas Banka Conference | |
| 03/11/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | Unemployment |
| 03/11/2022 | 1200/1200 | *** | | UK | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 03/11/2022 | - | | DE | G7 Foreign Ministers summit in Germany | |
| 03/11/2022 | 1230/0830 | * | | CA | Building Permits |
| 03/11/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 03/11/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Trade Balance |
| 03/11/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity |
| 03/11/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 03/11/2022 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | IHS Markit Services Index (final) |
| 03/11/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 03/11/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | factory new orders |
| 03/11/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 03/11/2022 | 1730/1330 | | CA | BOC Deputy Beaudry gives opening remarks before academic lecture | |
| 03/11/2022 | 2000/1600 | | CA | Canada FM Freeland presents fiscal update | |
| 03/11/2022 | 2030/2030 | | UK | BOE Mann Panels American Enterprise Institute | |
| 04/11/2022 | 0030/1130 | *** | | AU | RBA Statement on Monetary Policy |
| 04/11/2022 | 0030/1130 | *** | | AU | Retail trade quarterly |
| 04/11/2022 | 0030/0930 | ** | | JP | IHS Markit Final Japan Services PMI |
| 04/11/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 04/11/2022 | 0745/0845 | * | | FR | Industrial Production |
| 04/11/2022 | 0800/0900 | ** | | ES | Industrial Production |
| 04/11/2022 | 0815/0915 | ** | | ES | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 04/11/2022 | 0845/0945 | ** | | IT | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 04/11/2022 | 0845/0945 | | EU | ECB de Guindos Speech at Naturgy Foundation/IESE School | |
| 04/11/2022 | 0850/0950 | ** | | FR | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 04/11/2022 | 0855/0955 | ** | | DE | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 04/11/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 04/11/2022 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 04/11/2022 | 0930/1030 | | EU | ECB Lagarde Open Lecture | |
| 04/11/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | PPI |
| 04/11/2022 | - | | DE | G7 Foreign Ministers summit in Germany | |
| 04/11/2022 | 1215/1215 | | UK | BOE Pill & Shortall MonPol Report National Agency briefing | |
| 04/11/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 04/11/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Employment Report |
| 04/11/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 04/11/2022 | 1400/1000 | | US | Boston Fed's Susan Collins |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.