Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The week ahead sees the flash releases of services and manufacturing PMIs, as well as European confidence indicators. Both Turkey and South Africa central bank policy decisions are due.
Monday
Germany Producer Prices: German factory-gate inflation is expected to slow in October, declining -0.2% m/m and dropping 5.5pp to +40.3% y/y to come off the August/September record highs. Falling energy prices on the back of natural price gaps should see PPI ease further over the next months. A continuation of last month’s slowing in intermediate goods inflation will be a promising sign, yet capital and consumer prices will need to begin to tick down if this is to feed through into CPI.
Tuesday
Canada Retail Sales: Canadian retail sales are anticipated to have remained robust in the September data, projected to expand by +1.1% m/m (1.0% ex auto) following +0.7% m/m growth in August. Canadian retail sales alternated between gains and losses again over August and September, with weakness in consumer spending that had powered the economy for years adding to evidence of a slowdown as interest rates rise.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence: Flash consumer confidence for November will likely see a modest 2-point improvement to -25.6, edging up further from September’s record low. The indicator has been deeply pessimistic since the onset of the Ukraine war in March, which fuelled the global jump in energy prices and the deterioration of economic outlooks.
Wednesday
Flash November PMIs: S&P Global’s manufacturing and service preliminary PMI prints for November will be top of this week’s data docket. European PMIs are largely anticipated to edge down further into contractive territory, as new orders drop further against a backdrop of waning demand dampened by surging inflation. The devil will be again in the detail and moves in input/output prices as well as substantial shifts in employment will be closely watched.
US PMI data is projected to see a 0.4-point decrease in manufacturing, leaving the index at the breakeven point of 50. A slip into contractive territory would signal the first month-on-month fall since June 2020. Services will likely remain around the 48-mark in continuation of slight decline.
US Durable Goods Orders: The October advance data will likely signal continued growth in durable goods, holding pace with September at +0.4% m/m. Ex transportation durable goods should stall. This, in conjunction with an anticipated -0.2% m/m contraction in capital goods orders, points towards a slowdown in investment goods spending as firms plan for weak growth into year end.
US New Home Sales: October new home sales data will flag a further decline in the housing sector as mortgage rates jumped to around 7.2% in the wake of the Fed’s swift tightening cycle. New home sales are anticipated to contract again, by 4.9% m/m (vs -10.9% in Sep). This follows US existing home sales from Friday, which saw a decline, but not as bad as feared. The housing sector will likely constitute a substantial drag on Q4 GDP.
U. Michigan Sentiment: Capping off a busy afternoon of US data, the U Michigan sentiment index final prints for November are due. These will likely confirm the surprise slide in sentiment from 59.9 to 54.7 and uptick in 5-10Y inflation expectations which left them more firmly in the 2.9-3.1% range.
Thursday
US markets will be closed on Thursday as they celebrate Thanksgiving.
France Confidence Indicators: French business and manufacturing confidence indexes are projected to tick down by one point each to 101 and 102 in November.
Germany IFO Survey: Modest improvements are on the cards for the German IFO survey, with the business climate index to edge up by 0.7 points to 85.0 and expectations to increase by 1.4 points to 77.0 as fears of gas shortages into Winter dissipate. Deeply pessimistic expectations have driven the fall in the IFO index, which are currently (barring 2020 pandemic lows) worse than in the midst of the 2008/09 GFC.
Turkey Rate Decision: In contrast to the global tightening trend, the CBRT will look to cut rates further at their November meet despite inflation soaring to 85.5% in October. A second consecutive 150bp cut to 9.00% is largely anticipated, following President Erdogan’s calls for single-digit rates by year-end. The latest statement suggested that this will be the final cut in the cycle, yet markets will be looking for signals from the CBRT and President on whether rates are intended to go lower.
South Africa Rate Decision: The SARB is expected to hike rates by 75bp at their November meeting, raising the bank interest rate to 7.00%. Inflation has remained uncomfortably sticky for the SARB, having only softened modestly from the July peak of +7.8% y/y.
Friday
Friday will see a slew of European sentiment indicators, which will largely stabilise at low levels or see slight improvements.
German consumer sentiment is anticipated to improve by a modest two points around -40 in the December forward-looking print. Final Q3 GDP data should confirm +0.3% q/q growth, largely boosted by robust consumer spending.
French consumer confidence will likely plateau at 98, and Italy around the 90-mark. Italian manufacturing confidence is also due, with consensus looking for a one-point decline to around 99.3. Despite weakening manufacturing sentiment in October, a marginal recovery was noted in both manufacturing production and services outlooks, implying cautious initial optimism.| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 21/11/2022 | 0115/0915 |  | CN | PBOC LPR | |
| 21/11/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | PPI |
| 21/11/2022 | 0905/0905 |  | UK | BOE Cunliffe Speech at Warwick Conference | |
| 21/11/2022 | 1530/1530 | | UK | DMO Announces Agenda for Consultation Meetings | |
| 21/11/2022 | 1630/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 21/11/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 21/11/2022 | 1800/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 21/11/2022 | 1800/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 22/11/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Public Sector Finances |
| 22/11/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 22/11/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | CA | Retail Trade |
| 22/11/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 22/11/2022 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 22/11/2022 | 1500/1600 | ** | | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 22/11/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 22/11/2022 | 1600/1100 | | US | Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester | |
| 22/11/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 22/11/2022 | 1645/1145 | | CA | BOC's Sr Deputy Rogers talk on financial stability | |
| 22/11/2022 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 22/11/2022 | 1915/1415 | | US | Kansas City Fed's Esther George | |
| 22/11/2022 | 1945/1445 | | US | St. Louis Fed's James Bullard | |
| 23/11/2022 | 0815/0915 | ** |  | FR | IHS Markit Services PMI (p) |
| 23/11/2022 | 0815/0915 | ** | | FR | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23/11/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** | | DE | IHS Markit Services PMI (p) |
| 23/11/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** | | DE | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23/11/2022 | 0830/0930 | | EU | ECB de Guindos at Encuentro del Sector Financiero | |
| 23/11/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | IHS Markit Services PMI (p) |
| 23/11/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23/11/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | IHS Markit Composite PMI (p) |
| 23/11/2022 | 0930/0930 | *** | | UK | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (flash) |
| 23/11/2022 | 0930/0930 | *** | | UK | IHS Markit Services PMI (flash) |
| 23/11/2022 | 0930/0930 | *** | | UK | IHS Markit Composite PMI (flash) |
| 23/11/2022 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 23/11/2022 | 1200/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 23/11/2022 | 1330/0830 | * | | CA | Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises |
| 23/11/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 23/11/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | durable goods new orders |
| 23/11/2022 | 1445/0945 | *** | | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash) |
| 23/11/2022 | 1445/0945 | *** | | US | IHS Markit Services Index (flash) |
| 23/11/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | New Home Sales |
| 23/11/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | Final Michigan Sentiment Index |
| 23/11/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 23/11/2022 | 1900/1400 | | US | FOMC minutes | |
| 23/11/2022 | 1900/1900 | | UK | BOE Pill Speech at Beesley Lecture Series | |
| 24/11/2022 | 2200/0900 | *** |  | AU | IHS Markit Flash Australia PMI |
| 24/11/2022 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | IHS Markit Flash Japan PMI |
| 24/11/2022 | 0745/0845 | ** | | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 24/11/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | SE | Riksbank Interest Rate |
| 24/11/2022 | 0900/1000 | *** | | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 24/11/2022 | 0945/0945 | | UK | BOE Ramsden Speech at BOE Watchers’ Conference | |
| 24/11/2022 | 1030/1030 | | UK | BOE Pill Panelist at BOE Watchers’ Conference | |
| 24/11/2022 | 1100/0600 | * |  | TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 24/11/2022 | 1115/1215 | | EU | ECB de Guindos Speech at Analysis Forum in Milan | |
| 24/11/2022 | - |  | SK | South Korea BoK Rate Decision | |
| 24/11/2022 | - |  | ZA | SARB Rate Decision | |
| 24/11/2022 | 1300/1400 | | EU | ECB Schnabel Speech at BOE Watchers' Conference | |
| 24/11/2022 | 1330/0830 | * | | CA | Payroll employment |
| 24/11/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 24/11/2022 | 1345/1345 | | UK | BOE Mann Panelist at BOE Watchers’ Conference | |
| 24/11/2022 | 1400/1500 | ** |  | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 24/11/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 25/11/2022 | 0700/0800 | * | | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 25/11/2022 | 0700/0800 | *** | | DE | GDP (f) |
| 25/11/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** | | SE | PPI |
| 25/11/2022 | 0745/0845 | ** | | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 25/11/2022 | 0800/0900 |  | ES | PPI | |
| 25/11/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 25/11/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 25/11/2022 | 1600/1100 | | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 27/11/2022 | - | | AU | Victoria State Election |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.