Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI (London) - The highlights of the week will be policy decisions from the FOMC, ECB and BoJ as well as the first national flash July inflation prints from the Eurozone.
WEDNESDAY: FOMC Decision
The Fed will hike by 25 basis points and maintain its tightening bias at the July meeting (decision on Wednesday July 26). Chair Powell is likely to suggest that a follow-up hike is possible at the next meeting in September, but will emphasize that no decision has yet been made, and will depend on the substantial inflation and jobs data in the interim. That messaging would retain the optionality to hike at consecutive meetings if the next two inflation prints between now and then warrant a (likely final) hike. The market impact of this messaging is likely to be modestly hawkish.
THURSDAY / FRIDAY: ECB Decision / France, Spain and Germany flash inflation
The ECB will almost certainly hike its policy rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting on Thursday July 27 (markets price 95+% implied probability of this outcome). The key focus is the messaging surrounding the path for interest rates at the September meeting (and beyond). Eurosystem sources last month told MNI's Policy Team that consensus is building that before deciding on its next move after a July hike, the Governing Council must see the slew of economic data due through early September.
That includes inflation data for both July and August, the first indications of which come on Friday July 28 with France, Spain and Germany reporting flash readings. Pricing pressures are expected to continue to fall across most countries in July ,as in June. Energy prices should continue to act as a drag for most countries, with services prices potentially remaining stubborn.
FRIDAY: BoJ decision
The BoJ will issue its latest monetary policy decision on Friday. The typical release window opens at 11:30 Tokyo/03:30 London, with no fixed time given.Rhetoric from BoJ Governor Ueda had already seen hawkish expectations moderate, with a Reuters poll noting that over 75% of respondents expect no movement in the Bank’s YCC band.A duo of dovish newswire source reports then saw the bulk of any lingering speculatory positions geared towards a YCC tweak unwound, as the reports played down the likelihood of a YCC tweak this time out. The Japanese 10-Year swap spread (a proxy for YCC speculation) moved to the lowest closing level seen since August ’22 as a result.Ueda has previously noted that some monetary policy decisions need to include an element of surprise, although it seems unlikely that this meeting will provide such a step, even with the major Y/Y CPI metrics running at/just off multi-decade highs.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 24/07/2023 | 2300/0900 | *** |  | AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 24/07/2023 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 24/07/2023 | 0700/0900 | ** |  | ES | PPI |
| 24/07/2023 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2023 | 0715/0915 | ** | | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2023 | 0730/0930 | ** |  | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2023 | 0730/0930 | ** | | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2023 | 0830/0930 | *** |  | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 24/07/2023 | 0830/0930 | *** | | UK | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 24/07/2023 | 0830/0930 | *** | | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 24/07/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** |  | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash) |
| 24/07/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 24/07/2023 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 24/07/2023 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 24/07/2023 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 25/07/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | PPI |
| 25/07/2023 | 0800/1000 | *** | | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25/07/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 25/07/2023 | 1000/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 25/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 25/07/2023 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 25/07/2023 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 25/07/2023 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 25/07/2023 | 1300/1500 | ** |  | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 25/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 25/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 25/07/2023 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 25/07/2023 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 26/07/2023 | 0130/1130 | *** | | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
| 26/07/2023 | 0130/1130 | *** | | AU | CPI inflation |
| 26/07/2023 | 0600/1400 | ** |  | CN | MNI China Liquidity Suvey |
| 26/07/2023 | 0645/0845 | ** | | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 26/07/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | M3 |
| 26/07/2023 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 26/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | New Home Sales |
| 26/07/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 26/07/2023 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 26/07/2023 | 1730/1330 |  | CA | BOC minutes from last rate meeting | |
| 26/07/2023 | 1800/1400 | *** | | US | FOMC Statement |
| 27/07/2023 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Trade price indexes |
| 27/07/2023 | 0600/0800 | * | | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 27/07/2023 | 0700/0900 | ** | | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 27/07/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 27/07/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 27/07/2023 | 1000/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 27/07/2023 | 1145/1345 | *** | | EU | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
| 27/07/2023 | 1215/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Deposit Rate |
| 27/07/2023 | 1215/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Main Refi Rate |
| 27/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 27/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 27/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | * | | CA | Payroll employment |
| 27/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 27/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | GDP |
| 27/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 27/07/2023 | 1245/1445 | | EU | ECB President Lagarde post-rate meet press conference | |
| 27/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 27/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 27/07/2023 | 1415/1615 | | EU | ECB Lagarde speaks on the ECB Podcast | |
| 27/07/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 27/07/2023 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 27/07/2023 | 1700/1300 | | US | Fed proposal on capital | |
| 28/07/2023 | 0130/1130 | ** | | AU | Retail Trade |
| 28/07/2023 | 0530/0730 | *** | | FR | GDP (p) |
| 28/07/2023 | 0530/0730 | ** | | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 28/07/2023 | 0530/0730 | *** | | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 28/07/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** | | SE | Unemployment |
| 28/07/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** | | SE | Retail Sales |
| 28/07/2023 | 0645/0845 | *** | | FR | HICP (p) |
| 28/07/2023 | 0645/0845 | ** | | FR | PPI |
| 28/07/2023 | 0700/0900 | *** | | ES | GDP (p) |
| 28/07/2023 | 0700/0900 | *** | | ES | HICP (p) |
| 28/07/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | | IT | PPI |
| 28/07/2023 | 0800/1000 | *** | | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 28/07/2023 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 28/07/2023 | 0900/1100 | *** | | DE | Saxony CPI |
| 28/07/2023 | 1200/1400 | *** | | DE | HICP (p) |
| 28/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** | | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 28/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 28/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Employment Cost Index |
| 28/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 28/07/2023 | 1500/1100 | | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.